Pre-Oscar Season Skullduggery

[MovieMogul]

Hugh Jackman has been announced for the host of this year’s Oscars.

[MovieMogul]

AMPAS has announced the 15 Visual Effects finalists. From these, the VE branch will narrow it down to a shortlist of 7, which will then compete in the annual “bake-off” that will determine the final 3 appearing on the Oscar ballot.

Australia
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Cloverfield
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Day the Earth Stood Still
Hancock
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The Incredible Hulk
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
Quantum of Solace
The Spiderwick Chronicles

[MovieMogul]

@ArchiveGuy

Actor
Virtual Locks:
Frank Langella: Nixon’s been nominated before, but Langella comes off a Tony award for his Tricky Dick. This would be his first nod.
Clint Eastwood: 4 Oscars, but the man has never won for his acting. This could very well be the year. This would be his 3rd acting nod, the other two being for films that (like Grand Torino) he also directed.
Mickey Rourke: Probably the Bill Murray slot–getting a ton of critical cred, but battling his own prickly reputation within the industry.
Sean Penn: This will be his 5th nod, it’s a terrific performance but winning #2 might be tough so soon after #1 (he’s more respected than Tom Hanks, but probably not as well liked).

Rounding the field:
Leonardo DiCaprio: Almost completely dependent on how well RR is received. This would be his 4th nod.
Benicio del Toro: Supposedly an amazing, bravura Che performance, but will enough people sit out the whole 5 hours? Voters also might be suffering from biopic fatigue at this point as well. This would be his 3rd nod (but first as a lead).
Richard Jenkins: The Visitor was the little Indie that could this past summer, but will people’s memories be long enough? It helps that Jenkins is the classic, unassuming character actor given a shot at a lead and running with it (think David Strathairn, Don Cheadle or winners Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Forest Whitaker). This would be his 1st nod.
Brad Pitt: Completely dependent on a Button bandwagon. This would be his 2nd nod (first as lead).
Will Smith: Seven Pounds is his serious side, which has fared him well in the past with voters. This would be his 3rd nod.

SAG nominees (announced this morning): Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke.

Critics’ award tally: Penn (12), Rourke (4), Eastwood (1)

Things look pretty bad for Leo and RR (and Smith is DOA), and while Clint didn’t get a Globe nod either, the Academy embraces him in a way these other groups haven’t, so I still wouldn’t count him out. Pitt is better positioned, but his performance is so recessive (or “subtle”, YMMV) that it may not stand out the way it needs to to garner enough #1 votes on Academy ballots. And while this is good news for Jenkins and The Visitor, keep in mind that SAG also loved The Station Agent (which had the same writer/director) and Oscar left it at the altar. Benicio is a loooooong shot at this point, but Che is doing a high-publicity road show now, and while it hadn’t been seen by enough people to make the Globe/SAG shortlist, there’s still enough time to get Academy members’ attention.

Actress
Virtual locks:
Meryl Streep: After a huge summer (she’ll get a Globe nod for Mamma Mia!), she’ll almost certainly pick up her 15th nomination for Doubt.
Anne Hathaway: Meryl’s Prada co-star is a strong contender in a showy (but prickly) role.
Kate Winslet: They’ll probably campaign for her in Supporting for The Reader so she’ll almost certainly get a nod for RR (unless the film really tanks). If she does double dip this year, that will put her at 7 career nominations without a win–a record for actresses. This may be the year she takes it.

Rounding the field:
Cate Blanchett: They love giving her nods (this would be her 6th), but the jury’s still out on how big her Button role is.
Angelina Jolie: The film wasn’t universally well-received, but Clint is a magician in getting his actors attention, and the Academy might think she’s overdue for a nod (she hasn’t gotten one since her win almost a decade ago). Double teaming with Brad might prove irresistable, too.
Sally Hawkins: Will be dependent on how much notice she gets from the year-end awards. Another performance that irritates and ingratiates in equal measure, it doesn’t have the heft that Vera Drake had (the last Mike Leigh film to get some acting notice). This would be her 1st nod.
Melissa Leo: Frozen River’s a terrific film–and Leo is fantastic. She has no shot at winning but this could be the Indie unknown to fly in under the radar (see Catalina Sandino Moreno, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Janet McTeer, and Imelda Staunton). This would be her 1st nod.
Michelle Williams: Wendy and Lucy is getting tons of raves, and Ledger’s Oscar spectre may give her a leg up, both in visibility and sympathy. But they’ll have to see the film first (another little indie that could fall through the cracks). This would be her 2nd nod (but first as lead).
Nicole Kidman: Not great reviews for her performance, but the film is epic and she could scoot in on name recognition/familiarity if voters can’t be bothered with the small stuff (like the 3 names above). This would be her 3rd nod (and 2nd for Baz).
Kristin Scott Thomas: Supposed to be amazing in I’ve Loved You So Long, but the film’s in French and not well known. Still, her status as a former nominee means you can’t rule her out in a soft field (plus her language fluency highlights her range).

SAG nominees: Hathaway, Jolie, Leo, Streep, Winslet

Critics’ award tally: Hawkins (6), Hathaway (5), Winslet (3), Streep (2)

I think it’s safe to give walking papers to Williams, Thomas, and Kidman, and I think Blanchett’s performance, while completely fine, has lots of little wonderful moments but not one big money scene that Oscar voters often need. Button is told through her eyes, but there are big chunks of the movie that find her missing. I think she’s unlikely to factor in unless the film does a massive sweep.

So that narrows things down to the 5 SAG nominees, plus Hawkins, who’s taken the most critic awards. The nod for Leo is huge, but it’s a film that’s still unknown to many. Still, if enough Academy voters check it out, it could go over in a big way (Leo’s great and the film is excellent, too). Oscar has only shone on Mike Leigh performances that were broad and sympathetic (Imelda Staunton, Brenda Blethyn). When his actors are too prickly or unlikeable (David Thewlis in Naked, Jane Horrocks in Life is Sweet), all the critics’ awards in the world don’t make a difference.

[MovieMogul]

@ArchiveGuy

Supporting Actor
Locks
Heath Ledger: I’ve made the case before why Ledger isn’t a lock for the win. But as December comes around, there are few other serious, heavy-hitting competitors. He’s still got some obstacles (the comic book ghetto, his posthumous status), but it is a great performance in a blockbuster film.

Rounding the field
Josh Brolin/James Franco: The Milk boys, Brolin has the edge because of his turn as W this year, too. This would be the 1st nod for both.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman: This would his 3rd nod, though placing him in this category (for Doubt) might seem more strategic than honest.
Robert Downey, Jr.: The Comeback of the year, he’s be recognized for Tropic Thunder but coasting on a huge wave of Iron Man goodwill. This would be his 2nd nod.
Michael Shannon: Just based on buzz right now (Revolutionary Road), this would be his 1st nod.
Michael Sheen/Dev Patel: Pseudo-leads (they’re both title roles!) in likely Best Picture candidates, this would be the first nod for both.

This still gives plenty of breathing room for an underdog or two.

SAG nominees: Brolin, Downey, Hoffman, Ledger, Patel

Critics’ award tally: Ledger (13), Brolin (2)

Patel is the shocker among the SAGs, but they’re more fast-and-loose with the lead/supporting distinction than the Academy, so while Slumdog clearly has some very strong support, Patel is a stretch as a “supporting” player but not strong enough to pull a Whale Rider upset as a lead Oscar nominee.

Nothing else too surprising. Road isn’t registering with anyone yet, so Shannon looks more vulnerable, and by all accounts, Ron Howard’s movie is Frost/Nixon, so Sheen seems unlikely to contend unless there’s a huge late surge for the film. Franco still might factor, but there seems little doubt now that if only one Milkman gets through, it’ll be Brolin.

Supporting Actress
Virtual Locks
Penelope Cruz: Woody Allen films have yielded 8 nominees in this category. Cruz will probably be 9th. This will be her 2nd nod.
Rosemarie DeWitt: Based mostly on heavy buzz so far (Rachel Getting Married), this would be her 1st nod.
Viola Davis: Based mostly on heavy buzz so far (Doubt), this would be her 1st nod.

Rounding the field
Kate Winslet: Immensely popular, if they campaign for her here for The Reader, she’s got an excellent shot at a nod. This would be her 3rd in this category.
Amy Adams/Marisa Tomei/Debra Winger: They’re all in films with guaranteed lead acting nominations, so we know the films will be seen. Their status as previous nominees means the Academy is comfortable with them already. This would be nomination #2/#3/#4 (respectively).
Taraji P Henson: Lots of buzz for a likely Best Picture contender (Button) means visibility will be high. This would be her 1st nod.

This is the category that could yield the most surprises.

SAG nominees: Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson, Winslet

Critics’ award tally: Cruz (6), Davis (3), Tomei (3), DeWitt (1), Henson (1)

Winslet seems a sure thing for a double now, and Davis, like Brolin, seems like the lock for her film in this category; those two and Cruz are the sure-things right now. The Rachel women may be splitting the vote, but the category’s too soft to completely count them out (and that counts for Tomei, too); Hathaway and Rourke will guarantee a lot of Oscar exposure for those films, and that might be enough to get them in the door, though Adams still has the advantage. Henson is playing the Sally Field/Forrest Gump role, and while Field was ignored by Oscar, Henson still might squeak through.

[MovieMogul]

@ArchiveGuy

Picture
Virtual locks:
Slumdog Millionaire: This will probably be the film that wins the most critics’ Best Picture awards (it’s won 2 already) and will have a multicultural/independent street cred to fall back on. Plus, it’s genuinely uplifiting in a way most of its competitors aren’t.
Frost/Nixon: 70s history that plays it safe, both politically (does anyone like Nixon?) and aesthetically (directed by Ron Howard).
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: There’s almost always at least one film with big epic sweep that makes the final 5, and this is the most obvious candidate (especially since Australia is getting raked over the coals). I’m seeing it tonight so will report back soon, but the buzz is huge and epics often benefit from deep support from the craft/“technical” branches, so this seems the most likely candidate to gain the most nods overall as well.

Probably rounding the field:
The Dark Knight: It made a ton of money, got terrific reviews, and has a very Oscar-friendly cast (including 1 assured nominee). Of course, it is still a comic book movie (the Academy still has its genre prejudices) so it definitely won’t win, but the field is wide enough that it should make the final cut.
Milk: 70s history that’s more moving but also more controversial (let’s face it, anything gay-friendly will stoke some fires, even in Hollywood). Biopics have a pretty good track record of making the final 5, but a very bad record in recent years of taking the whole thing (Losers: Ray, Capote, The Queen, The Aviator, The Pianist, Good Night and Good Luck, etc.).

Other contenders:
Revolutionary Road: The Leo/Winslet/Mendes teaming is a force to be reckoned with, but will it find enough faithful fans to get the necessary #1 ballot votes, or come across as an extended episode of Mad Men?
Doubt: The film best poised to earn the most acting nominations (probably 3, possibly 4), so can’t be counted out, though buzz hasn’t been as strong.

Unlikely also-rans:
The Wrestler, Rachel Getting Married: Almost certain acting nominees (possibly in multiple categories) but probably not enough support to put them over the top, despite very strong notices. These both have better shots at Director, though.
WALL-E: Now that it’s got its own category (where it’s a mortal lock), I think enough people will be satisfied leaving it at that (though it will also likely pick up writing, sound, and music nominations, too). Animation is usually a second-class citizen with the Academy and this year probably won’t change that, regardless of how great the film is. People don’t remember that 1991 was an exceptionally soft year, so Beauty and the Beast was a fluke unlikely to be repeated for a long time.

SAG Ensemble nominees: Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog

Critics’ award tally: Slumdog (8), Milk (3), Button (2), WALL-E (2), Dark Knight (1)

While SAG ensemble is not meant to “equate” to a Best Picture nomination, this slate could certainly pass. The big surprise is that Slumdog (with no American actors and tons of non-professionals) was embraced by the Actors’ Guild. That is huge, and at this point has to be considered a lock for a Picture nod. Button’s strong showing helps, and Milk is still very solid (while this may be the nail in the coffin for Road).

Batman’s a no-show, but will still probably get a nod. It appears its strongest competition may be Doubt, which is well-positioned to get 4 acting nominations. How many times in Oscar history has a film got 4 acting nods but no Picture nod? Only three, the most recently over 40 years ago. That could mean that if there’s one “upset” here, it probably will be seeing F/N get the cold shoulder. We’ll see…

[drm]

Patel is the shocker among the SAGs, but they’re more fast-and-loose with the lead/supporting distinction than the Academy, so while Slumdog clearly has some very strong support, Patel is a stretch as a “supporting” player but not strong enough to pull a Whale Rider upset as a lead Oscar nominee.

While I loved Slumdog, if Patel wasn’t the lead actor, who was?

[MovieMogul]

@drm

While I loved Slumdog, if Patel wasn’t the lead actor, who was?

Oh, I think he unquestionably is. What I meant is that he has little chance of finding a spot in the final slate if he’s up against Penn, Langella, et al. That’s why the film is campaigning for him in the supporting slot. I just don’t think the Academy voters will buy it.

[Freudian_Slit]

@Jester

Wow, really? I know next to nothing about Gran Tornio, but I caught the trailer for it last weekend and it made it look like just a terrible, terrible film. Which was surprising and saddening, since Clint is usually so smart about choosing projects. Nice to know that it’s getting good buzz.

I thought it was terrible, too, based on the trailer–very cheesy, Clint as the stereotypical “GET OFF MY LAWN” old man. But I’ve been hearing good things all around as well.

[drm]

@ArchiveGuy

Oh, I think he unquestionably is. What I meant is that he has little chance of finding a spot in the final slate if he’s up against Penn, Langella, et al. That’s why the film is campaigning for him in the supporting slot. I just don’t think the Academy voters will buy it.

OH, that makes sense. The best actor category IS pretty loaded this year. I have to come up with a top 5 soon and I’m not sure I’m gonna know how to fill it out.

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

BEST PICTURE

Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

(Winner: Milk)

Best Actor

Sean Penn for Milk
Mickey Rourke for The wrestler
Brad Pitt for Button
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
And here’s my dark horse – I think Josh Brolin might get one for W.

(Winner: Rourke. Hollywood loves a comeback, and it sounds like he really gives a knockout performance in this)

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway for Rachel
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for The Reader
Nicole Kidman for Australia
Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky

(Winner: This one’s tough to call, but I’m going to guess that the town will want to reward Kate Winslet)

Best Supporting Actor
Is there really any point in making a list? They might as well have inscribed Heath’s name on the statue back in July.

I think we’ll also see Brolin here for his work in Milk, possibly James Franco for the same movie (though he was actually better in Pineapple Express), the kid from Slumdog and to round out the list, PSH for Doubt. A nomination that would rock here would be Tom Cruise for Tropic Thunder.

Best Supporting Actress

No idea on this one. Amy Adams, I guess. Penelope Cruz was pretty good in that Woody Allen flick. Marissa Tomei is supposed to be good in The Wrester.

I can’t even come up with 5 names for this. I’ll guess Tomei as the winner just to guess something.
Best Director

Darren Aronofsky for The wrestler
Gus Van Zandt for Milk
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Cristopher Nolan for The Dark Knight
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

(winner: Van Zandt)

[anu-la1979]

I hope Kate Winslet wins something. Mainly because she’s a goddess but also kind of because she’s turning into the Erika Kane of the Oscars.

[GrandWino]

@Diogenes_the_Cynic

I’ll guess Tomei as the winner just to guess something.

Tomei should win for her nipples alone.

[Sigmagirl]

I have a hard time even thinking “two-time Oscar-winner Marisa Tomei,” let alone typing it.

[Equipoise]

ArchiveGuy, I just wanted to thank you for your posts. While I’m not tracking awards on web sites as I have in previous years (it’d be different if The Fall were in play), I’m still interested, and it’s always great to hear your take. The only nominated movies/performances I haven’t seen yet are The Wrestler, Benjamin Button, The Reader and Revolutionary Road, and I’ll see them all before the end of the year. All the movies in play that I have seen are excellent. Well, I wasn’t that crazy about Rachel Getting Married, but still thought it was decent, and the performances were terrific.

I’m thrilled that some people who might otherwise have gone unnoticed are getting awards attention, such as the fantastic Richard Jenkins for The Visitor and Melissa Leo for Frozen River. Whether those two get Oscar noms or not, I’m so happy for them that they weren’t totally forgotten.

[Equipoise]

@Equipoise

The only nominated movies/performances I haven’t seen yet are The Wrestler, Benjamin Button, The Reader and Revolutionary Road

I’ve now seen all these movies and Mickey Rourke has such a lock on a nomination they can just throw away the key. It doesn’t matter who else is nominated. Their nomination will be their reward. This will be a fight between Sean Penn and Rourke. If there is a spoiler it will be a sentimental win for Eastwood. Pitt, Langella, Jenkins, DiCaprio, they have no chance of winning.

Unless Che (and Benicio) comes on strong and gets nominations, then I’ll have to re-think because it could change several categories.

Winslet might get a double nod for TR and RR, but IMO neither movie will dominate in nominations, and as much as I adore her, I can’t see her winning for either. While my choice for a win would be Melissa Leo, I think this might be Streep’s year.

Here are my predictions (in order of likelihood, and without having seen Che):

Picture

Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight

(Doubt might replace The Dark Knight, but I tend to doubt it)

Actor

Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) (oh hell, why not?)

(Brad Pitt is one of my favorite actors, but he may miss getting a nomination. If he gets in it will be at the expense of Jenkins, which is kindofa shame. I don’t think there will be room for DiCaprio.)

Actress

Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling) (just to be contrary)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)

(If Kate gets in for Revolutionary Road, which I doubt, it’ll probably be at the expense of Hathaway or Jolie. Probably Hathaway, because Jolie got shafted last year for A Mighty Heart and she’s excellent in Changeling and the voters may want to make it up to her.)

Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Robert Downey, Jr (Tropic Thunder)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)

(Boy wouldn’t I love to see Brad Pitt and/or George Clooney in here for Burn After Reading, but that’s crazy talk, totally wishful thinking.)

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Taraji P Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

(I really wanted to fit Rosemarie DeWitt in there, but I don’t know who I’d knock out. If she gets in I think it will be at the expense of Henson or Tomei)

Best Director

I’m going to go with Dio’s list.

Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)

[gaffa]

@ArchiveGuy

Oh, and just announced: Jerry Lewis finally gets an Oscar.

Dammit, he deserved a Technical one for the video tap. Totally revolutionized film making with that one.

[Key_Lime_Guy]

I can’t imagine Wall-E getting a Best Picture nomination if Ratatouille didn’t.

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

I don’t want to see cartoons getting nominated. That’s why they have their own category. I think animation is a fundamentally different medium. Plus Wall-E was overrated anyway. It didn’t even make sense. How can robots have genders or fall in love?

[Sir_T-Cups]

@Key_Lime_Guy

I can’t imagine Wall-E getting a Best Picture nomination if Ratatouille didn’t.

Wall-E was a much deeper story than Rat was.

Rat was just a cute kids movie, but Wall-E seemed to have so much more heart and soul that most animated movies do

[Freudian_Slit]

@Freudian_Slit

I thought it was terrible, too, based on the trailer–very cheesy, Clint as the stereotypical “GET OFF MY LAWN” old man. But I’ve been hearing good things all around as well.

Posted this in the other thread on Gran Turino, but I saw it this weekend and loved it. Definitely see it getting an Oscar nod. The moments with Clint getting medieval on people’s asses are funny, but it’s also beautiful and touching and unbelievably great.