No guts, no glory Oscar predictions

I copied and pasted the list from Oscar.com. No way did I type out all those production companies and such, and I’m too lazy to delete it all.

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

  • NOMINATIONS BY CATEGORY - 82ND AWARDS -

Please mentally add a “Maybe” after “WILL WIN” because I’m terrible at predictions. I expect at least half of these to be wrong. And, needless to say, of course add an IMO after the SHOULD WINs.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

WILL WIN * Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
* George Clooney in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man” (The Weinstein Company)
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

SHOULD WIN: Colin Firth
I WANT TO WIN: Anybody but Freeman and I’ll be happy, but mainly Bridges.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Matt Damon in "Invictus" (Warner Bros.)
* Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger" (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
* Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station" (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones" (DreamWorks in association with Film4, Distributed by Paramount)

WILL WIN * Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)

SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
I WANT TO WIN: Stanley Tucci, or anyone but Damon, who should have been nominated lead for The Informant!
Performance by an actress in a leading role

WILL WIN * Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.)
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
* Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan
I WANT TO WIN: Carey Mulligan
Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Penélope Cruz in "Nine" (The Weinstein Company)
* Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air" (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart" (Fox Searchlight)
* Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air" (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)

WILL WIN * Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)

SHOULD WIN: Mo’Nique
I WANT TO WIN: Mo’Nique
Best animated feature film of the year

*      "Coraline" (Focus Features)	Henry Selick
*      "Fantastic Mr. Fox" (20th Century Fox)	Wes Anderson
*      "The Princess and the Frog" (Walt Disney)	John Musker and Ron Clements
*      "The Secret of Kells" (GKIDS)	Tomm Moore

WILL WIN * “Up” (Walt Disney) Pete Docter

SHOULD WIN: The Secret of Kells
I WANT TO WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Achievement in art direction

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
* “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics) Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
* “Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Art Direction: John Myhre Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
* “Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.) Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
* “The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Art Direction: Patrice Vermette Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

SHOULD WIN: Avatar
I WANT TO WIN: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Achievement in cinematography

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Mauro Fiore
* “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” (Warner Bros.) Bruno Delbonnel
* “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Barry Ackroyd
* “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Robert Richardson
* “The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics) Christian Berger

SHOULD WIN: The White Ribbon (I haven’t seen it, but oh my god, that trailer!)
I WANT TO WIN: Inglorious Basterds
Achievement in costume design

*      "Bright Star" (Apparition)	Janet Patterson
*      "Coco before Chanel" (Sony Pictures Classics)	Catherine Leterrier
*      "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus" (Sony Pictures Classics)	Monique Prudhomme
*      "Nine" (The Weinstein Company)	Colleen Atwood

WILL WIN * “The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Sandy Powell

SHOULD WIN: Bright Star
I WANT TO WIN: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Achievement in directing

*      "Avatar" (20th Century Fox)	James Cameron

WILL WIN * “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Kathryn Bigelow
* “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Quentin Tarantino
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Lee Daniels
* “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Jason Reitman

SHOULD WIN: James Cameron
I WANT TO WIN: Kathryn Bigelow or Quentin Tarantino
Best documentary feature

*      "Burma VJ" (Oscilloscope Laboratories)       A Magic Hour Films Production	Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller

WILL WIN * “The Cove” (Roadside Attractions) An Oceanic Preservation Society Production Nominees to be determined
* “Food, Inc.” (Magnolia Pictures) A Robert Kenner Films Production Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
* “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” A Kovno Communications Production Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
* “Which Way Home” A Mr. Mudd Production Rebecca Cammisa

SHOULD WIN: No opinion (I haven’t seen any of them)
I WANT TO WIN: The Cove just because it’d be fun to think “Oscar winner Fisher Stevens”
Best documentary short subject

WILL WIN * “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” A Downtown Community Television Center Production Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
* “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” A Just Media Production Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
* “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” A Community Media Production Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
* “Music by Prudence” An iThemba Production Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
* “Rabbit à la Berlin” (Deckert Distribution) An MS Films Production Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

SHOULD WIN: No opinion (I haven’t seen any of them)
I WANT TO WIN: No opinion
Achievement in film editing

*      "Avatar" (20th Century Fox)	Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
*      "District 9" (Sony Pictures Releasing)	Julian Clarke

WILL WIN * “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
* “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Sally Menke
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Joe Klotz

SHOULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
I WANT TO WIN: Inglorious Basterds
Best foreign language film of the year

*      "Ajami"(Kino International)      An Inosan Production	Israel
*      "El Secreto de Sus Ojos" (Sony Pictures Classics)      A Haddock Films Production	Argentina
*      "The Milk of Sorrow"      A Wanda Visión/Oberon Cinematogràfica/Vela Production	Peru

WILL WIN * “Un Prophète” (Sony Pictures Classics) A Why Not/Page 114/Chic Films Production France
* “The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics) An X Filme Creative Pool/Wega Film/Les Films du Losange/Lucky Red Production Germany

SHOULD WIN: No opinion (I haven’t seen any of them)
I WANT TO WIN: No opinion
Achievement in makeup

*      "Il Divo" (MPI Media Group through Music Box)	Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano

WILL WIN * “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
* “The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

SHOULD WIN: Star Trek
I WANT TO WIN: Star Trek
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) James Horner
* “Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox) Alexandre Desplat
* “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
* “Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
* “Up” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino

SHOULD WIN: No opinion (I’ve seen them but I don’t remember the music in any of them)
I WANT TO WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox (because it’s about damn time Alexandre Desplat won an Oscar)
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

*      "Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog" (Walt Disney)	Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
*      "Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess and the Frog" (Walt Disney)	Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
*      "Loin de Paname" from "Paris 36" (Sony Pictures Classics)	Music by Reinhardt Wagner       Lyric by Frank Thomas
*      "Take It All" from "Nine" (The Weinstein Company)	Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston

WILL WIN * “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

SHOULD WIN: No opinion. There’s no Aimee Mann, Bjork or anything comparible to “Belleville Rendez-Vous” or “Calling You” this year. They’re all nice.
I WANT TO WIN: I have a soft spot for “Loin de Paname” because I like Nora Arnezeder.
Best motion picture of the year

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox)
A Lightstorm Entertainment Production James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
* “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.)
An Alcon Entertainment Production Nominees to be determined
* “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
A Block/Hanson Production Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
* “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
A Finola Dwyer/Wildgaze Films Production Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
* “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)
A Voltage Pictures Production Nominees to be determined
* “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)
A Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg Production Lawrence Bender, Producer
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
A Lee Daniels Entertainment/Smokewood Entertainment Production Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
* “A Serious Man” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Films Production Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
* “Up” (Walt Disney)
A Pixar Production Jonas Rivera, Producer
* “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
A Montecito Picture Company Production Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

SHOULD WIN: Avatar
I WANT TO WIN: Inglorious Basterds. Or Avatar. Or A Serious Man. Or District 9. Or The Hurt Locker. Or An Education. Or Up In The Air.
Best animated short film

*      "French Roast"      A Pumpkin Factory/Bibo Films Production	Fabrice O. Joubert
*      "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty" (Brown Bag Films)      A Brown Bag Films Production	Nicky Phelan and Darragh O'Connell

WILL WIN * “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” A Kandor Graphics and Green Moon Production Javier Recio Gracia
* “Logorama” (Autour de Minuit) An Autour de Minuit Production Nicolas Schmerkin
* “A Matter of Loaf and Death” (Aardman Animations) An Aardman Animations Production Nick Park

SHOULD WIN: No opinion (haven’t seen any of them)
I WANT TO WIN: No real opinion, but I do like Nick Park in general
Best live action short film

*      "The Door" (Network Ireland Television)       An Octagon Films Production	Juanita Wilson and James Flynn

WILL WIN * “Instead of Abracadabra” (The Swedish Film Institute) A Directörn & Fabrikörn Production Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
* “Kavi” A Gregg Helvey Production Gregg Helvey
* “Miracle Fish” (Premium Films) A Druid Films Production Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
* “The New Tenants” A Park Pictures and M & M Production Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

SHOULD WIN: No opinion (haven’t seen any of them)
I WANT TO WIN: No idea
Achievement in sound editing

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
* “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Paul N.J. Ottosson
* “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Wylie Stateman
* “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
* “Up” (Walt Disney) Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

SHOULD WIN: Avatar
I WANT TO WIN: Avatar
Achievement in sound mixing

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
* “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
* “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
* “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
* “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro, Distributed by Paramount) Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

SHOULD WIN: Avatar
I WANT TO WIN: Avatar
Achievement in visual effects

WILL WIN * “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
* “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
* “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

SHOULD WIN: Avatar
I WANT TO WIN: Avatar
Adapted screenplay

*      "District 9" (Sony Pictures Releasing)	Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
*      "An Education" (Sony Pictures Classics)	Screenplay by Nick Hornby
*      "In the Loop" (IFC Films)	Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
*      "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate)	Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher

WILL WIN * “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

SHOULD WIN: Maybe District 9, because turning a short into a feature-length film can’t be easy
I WANT TO WIN: District 9 (just to see it get something)
Original screenplay

*      "The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment)	Written by Mark Boal

WILL WIN * “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Written by Quentin Tarantino
* “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
* “A Serious Man” (Focus Features) Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
* “Up” (Walt Disney) Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

SHOULD WIN: Inglorious Basterds
I WANT TO WIN: Inglorious Basterds or A Single Man

======================

I liked or loved pretty much all the movies nominated for everything. Unless The Blind Side, Up or Precious wins Best Picture, or Transformers beats Avatar in Visual Effects, I’m going to be happy with whatever wins in any category.

I agree with most of your predictions, except I don’t think AVATAR will win as Best Film, due to Bigelow winning for Best Director - Hurt Locker will prevail. I agree AVATAR should win, but doubt it.
Most of the main awards should be no shocker - and your list of “will win” predictions prove that.

Back when I worked at a movie studio, they had a really cool - and difficult - Oscar poll every year, often with employees from multiple studios all joining in. The pot would get up to $500 and more for 1st place, and about $300 for 2nd and $100 for 3rd and 4th places. Plus, back then the Oscars were on a Monday, and almost every movie studio in town would shut down at about noon for employees to get home to watch them - sort of a defacto holiday for movie studio employees.

The reason it was so difficult is you had to number your choices - not pick just one. For instance, you had to list the Best Actor award by putting “1” by who you thought would win, “2” next to your second choice, “3” next to 3rd choice, etc. This meant that if one surprise happened, and you had “5” next to the name of the actual winner, your score bombed quickly.
Whoever had the lowest score won.
This meant that any bad esoteric choices (best Documentary Short Subject) could ruin an otherwise perfect score by adding 5 points to your score.

So - if you really wanted to make your ballot specific - number the nominees in the order you think will win and see how close you get to having “1” for each.

BTW, for “surprises” today, look for Meryl Streep instead of Bullock, and perhaps neither AVATAR nor Hurt Locker wins. Oh, and I think “White Ribbon” is a lock for foreign film.

I assume you are in our Oscar Pool?

Bridges, Bullock, Waltz, Mo’Nique, Bigelow, and Hurt Locker will win the biggies. I’d rather see Streep win for actress, and I’d love to see IG win for movie, but I’m not predicting them. I will predict IG for original screenplay, though.

I’ll post my predix once the Pool deadline has passed. (no copying!! :p)

Renner, Tucci, Bullock, Mo’Nique (though I’m rooting for Kendrick), Up, Tarantino for directing, and I think Hurt Locker or Avatar will win best picture. But I don’t want Avatar to win. I hate it when big blockbusters make it big in the awards for some reason. I guess, in my mind, they have already won something.

I’d be very pleasantly surprised to see Tarantino win, but I think they’ll give it to Bigelow. They like to give it movies that are “about” something. Movies that are too entertaining don’t get rewarded.

Aw shoot, I just got home from work and didn’t know about it until just now. Since the Oscars are in 3 hours I assume it’s closed.

Yeah, I’m thinking The Hurt Locker might win too, but I chose Avatar because

  1. that idiot producer had to go and open his big mouth, telling voters how to vote, and most Academy members do NOT like
    a) being told how to vote (not just ‘vote for The Hurt Locker’, but…)
    b) negative campaigning (‘put that $500million dollar movie at #10’), and
    c) nominees who flaunt the rules, even if they don’t know what the rules are (they should learn the rules),

  2. Avatar’s going to be on a lot of #1 spots,

  3. Avatar’s going to be on a lot of #2 spots,

  4. Avatar’s going to be on a lot of #3 spots, so with preferential balloting this year, it’s got a great chance of getting the most votes anyway, and

  5. people just really love the film (see 2, 3 and 4). Academy members are no different from the general public. Some won’t like it, some will like it but like other movies more, and many will just be gaga over it just like most viewers and will want it to win. Those people will also know what into making the movie and be more likely to vote for it.

Yow!

That wouldn’t be a surprise. Gabourey winning would be a surprise. Carey winning would be a surprise. Mirren winning would be a mild surprise.

I’d yelp and cheer like a loon if Inglorious Basterds were to win, that’d be so great.

I went back and forth between the two. Un Prophète has been getting such rave reviews I decided to give it the edge. Based on buzz I’ve been hearing, El Secreto de Sus Ojos might beat both of them.

Almost. I got 14/24:

Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Animated Feature Film
Art Direction
Cinematography
Costume Design
Best Director
Documentary Feature
Best Editing
Best Makeup
Original Song
Visual Effects

Missed Picture, Score, both Screenplay, both Sound, Foreign-Language (though my “Based on buzz I’ve been hearing, El Secreto de Sus Ojos might beat both of them” was right on), all 3 Animated Shorts.

I got 18/24. Categories I got wrong:

Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Sound Editing
Animated Short
Documentary Short

Among our group, the ones I got right that most didn’t:

Foreign Language Film (2 guessed correctly)
Sound Mixing (3)

So much for my prediction of “a lock” for White Ribbon.
wow - not a single surprise tonight?
Usually there is something that surprises the pundits…oh well…all in all, not bad selections, though not my preferred choices.

Good for you ArchiveGuy! I should have paid much more attention to your choices. Or, did you post them anywhere?

The big surprises to me were Precious getting Adapted Screenplay, and Avatar losing both Sound awards to THL. Plus, Up In The Air walking away with no wins. I kinda feel bad for Jason Reitman, but he’ll be back.

I think Jeff Bridges winning Best Actor was a bit of a surprise. I think Freeman, Renner and Clooney were all ahead of Bridges. I think Bridge’s performance was stellar, I’m not personally putting him ahead of them, but I thought the Academy voters would.

Not a chance. Freeman and Clooney already had Oscars and this was Bridges’ fifth nomination (spanning decades of quality work) without ever winning. Plus, he’s from a well-love show biz family and is highly-admired throughout the industry. Renner & Firth may have constituted his only real competition, but their chances were still pretty remote.

Really? A surprise?!
This season he won every award prior to the Oscars, except an Olympic Gold medal.

Just out of curiosity, why would you think that? I mean, if you don’t follow awards season I could understand a bit why it might be a surprise and why the bigger names of Freeman and Clooney would be ahead of the slightly lesser-known Bridges, but then, why would you say the fairly obscure Jeremy Renner would be ahead of Jeff Bridges?

For those of us who are geeky beyond belief and follow awards season, most of us knew months ago that Jeff Bridges had this locked up. Among other awards, like the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama, he won the Screen Actors Guild, which is an important precursor because while not all Screen Actors Guild members are members of AMPAS (the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences), practically all the actors who are members of AMPAS are members of the Screen Actors Guild. There are more members of the Screen Actors Guild than there are actors in the Acting branch of AMPAS, so there’s a lot of overlap, if not almost complete overlap. SAG and AMPAS don’t always 100% line up with each other, but they’re often very very close. This year the recipients of the Screen Actors Guild awards were:

Male Actor, Leading: Jeff Bridges
Female Actor, Leading: Sandra Bullock
Male Actor, Supporting: Christoph Waltz
Female Actor, Supporting: Mo’Nique
Cast Ensemble: Inglorious Basterds

Since the Academy doesn’t have a Cast Ensemble award, they otherwise lined up 100% with the SAG members. Last year they chose Sean Penn, Heath Ledger, Kate Winslet in The Reader in Supporting (the Academy put her in Lead and she won there). The year before they agreed on Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem. The year before that they agreed on Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, and Jennifer Hudson. And so on.

As good as a precursor as the SAG awards are, the main reason why Bridges winning was a foregone conclusion is just how loved Jeff Bridges is in the acting community. He’s part of Hollywood royalty, he’s worked with practically everybody at one time or another, he’s been nominated 4 times, this role is a worthy winner, no one else overshadows him (there was no powerhouse competition), he’s been sweet and humble about his previous nominations and precursor wins, everything ArchiveGuy said and much more. There was not the remotest chance that Jeff Bridges would not win. I thought it was the least surprising win of the evening.