The 2nd Annual SDMB Oscar Prediction Contest!

Cafe Society
1

OK, I know I’m cutting things down to the wire (been a bit busy), but here we are with the
The 2nd Annual SDMB Academy Award Prediction Contest* (with real prizes!)*

Congrats to watsonwil for winning the Predict-the-Nominees contest; now, it’s time to predict the Winners (will Mahaloth defend last year’s victory?).

How to Play: Simply guess the winners of each of the 24 Academy Award categories. You can do so by:

(1) Going to Oscar.com and joining the Doper group in the Prediction Contest there. Our group is Cecil’s Kids and the password is sdmb. You’ll need to register at the website.
(2) If you don’t want to register at the website, go ahead and post your predictions here instead. However, your prediction post in this thread will be FINAL (you are free to edit your entry at the Oscar website). For a full slate of nominees, also go to Oscar.com. No posts will be considered after 5:00 PST, Sunday, February 29.

Should there be a tie, the correct number of predictions in the following categories will determine the winner: Screenplay (Original & Adapted), Music (Score & Song), Documentary (Feature & Short).

And, just like last year, I’ll personally provide the prize to the winner (though I’ll also be playing).

Good Luck Everyone!

2

Woo hoo! I was wondering if you were going to do this or not.

twicks, preparing for her usual humiliating showing as an Oscar prognosticator

3

My wife would love this. :slight_smile: Have to point her to this thread.

-XT

4

I’m #1! I’m #1!

OK, everyone is #1, but at least I’m still in the running.

5

I’m in.

Fear me.
*Okay, not really.

Well, I mean, not really, don’t fear me. I really am in. I mean…

Oh, never mind.*

6

Bump

7

I’m in.

I’m predicting a good night for Return of the King and Peter Jackson, took a chance on “A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” for Best Song, picked Master and Commander for the sound awards, and gave Best Actor to Bill Murray.

8

I’m in…and if LOTR doesn’t almost sweep all the awards, well…you all might wish I weren’t in.

FWIW, I used to do pretty well in the Oscar pools when I worked for the film studios…I even predicted Shakespeare In Love over Saving Private Ryan…and won 2nd prize that year. Then again, I remember thinking Lauren Bacall was a “lock” a few years ago, and - well…

Any bets on how many Gay Wedding jokes Billy Crystal will make during the course of the show?

9

Oooh, great tie-breaker – much more fun than “how long will the show run?”

10

Another tie-breaker: How long we have to wait before he performs a “wardrobe malfunction.”

11

Here’s mine. I’ve listed what/who I think WILL win, what/who I think SHOULD win (kindofa cheeky thing to do, and considered rude, but), my personal preference (not always the same as what/who I think should win), what/who I honestly believe should have been nominated, and what, in an alternate universe, I would like to have seen on the nomination list.

I kept the nominees to remind myself.

===

Best Motion Picture Of The Year

Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win (IMHO, of course): The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Mystic River
Should have been nominated: In America
Wish had been nominated: City of God, Big Fish

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Lost In Translation
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Directing

Will Win: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Fernando Meirelles - City Of God, Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation (just to break the ceiling)
Should have been nominated: Jim Sheridan - In America
Wish had been nominated: Quentin Tarantino - Kill Bill, Vol. 1

Nominees:
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

===

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

Will Win: Sean Penn - Mystic River

Should Win: Sean Penn - Mystic River
Personal Preference: Sean Penn - Mystic River
In any other year: Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
Should have been nominated: Paddy Considine - In America
Wish had been nominated: Hiroyuki Sanada - The Twilight Samurai, Billy Bob Thornton - Bad Santa

Nominees:
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
Jude Law - Cold Mountain
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
Sean Penn - Mystic River

===

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role

Will Win: Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Should Win: Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Personal Preference: Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Should have been nominated: Peter Sarsgaard - Shattered Glass
Wish had been nominated: Sean Astin - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Nominees:
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

===

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role

Will Win: Charlize Theron - Monster

Should Win: Charlize Theron - Monster
Personal Preference: Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider (just to see the look on her face! Otherwise, Theron)
In any other year: Samantha Morton - In America (but she and Naomi will be back)
Should have been nominated: Scarlett Johansson - Girl With A Pearl Earring, Jennifer Connelly - House of Sand and Fog
Wish had been nominated: Cate Blanchett - Veronica Guerin or The Missing, Evan Rachel Wood - Thirteen

Nominees:
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton - In America
Charlize Theron - Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

===

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role

Will Win: Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Should Win: Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Personal Preference: Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Should have been nominated: Patricia Clarkson - The Station Agent
Wish had been nominated: Jenna Boyd - The Missing, Nora-Jane Noone - The Magdalene Sisters

Nominees:
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
Holly Hunter - Thirteen
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

===

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year

Will Win: Finding Nemo

Should Win: (I can assume Nemo, but I haven’t seen Brother Bear)
Personal Preference: The Triplets of Belleville
Should have been nominated: Would have been Triplets, if it hadn’t been nominated.
Wish had been nominated: Would have been Triplets, if…

Nominees:
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

===

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published

Will Win: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
Should have been nominated: House of Sand and Fog
Wish had been nominated: Big Fish, The Twilight Samurai

Nominees:
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
Braulio Mantovani - City Of God
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

===

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen

Will Win: Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

Should Win: Steve Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Personal Preference: Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Should have been nominated: Catherine Hardwicke & Nikki Reed - Thirteen
Wish had been nominated: Peter Mullan - The Magdalene Sisters, Quentin Tarantino - Kill Bill, Vol. 1

Nominees:
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

===

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year

Will Win: The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

Should Win: (I’ve only seen The Barbarian Invasions and The Twilight Samurai)
Personal Preference: The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
Should have been nominated: Osama
Wish had been nominated: I haven’t seen enough to say, unfortunately

Nominees:
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
Evil (Sweden)
The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
Twin Sisters (The Netherlands)
Zelary (Czech Republic)

===

Achievement In Art Direction

Will Win: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Girl With A Pearl Earring, The Last Samurai
Should have been nominated: Daniel Bradford - Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Wish had been nominated: Mitsuo Degawa - The Twilight Samurai, Martin Whist - Down With Love

Nominees:
Ben van Os - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Lilly Kilvert - The Last Samurai
Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
William Sandell - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Jeannine Oppewall - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Cinematography

Will Win: Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Should Win: César Charlone - City Of God
Personal Preference: Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Should have been nominated: Andrew Lesnie - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King, Robert Richardson - Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Wish had been nominated: Mutsuo Naganuma - The Twilight Samurai, M. David Mullen - Northfork

Nominees:
Cesar Charlone - City Of God
John Seale - Cold Mountain
Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Costume Design

Will Win: Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Ngila Dickson - The Last Samurai
Should have been nominated: Kumiko Ogawa and Cat Thomas - Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Wish had been nominated: Kazuko Kurosawa - The Twilight Samurai, Daniel Orlandi - Down With Love

Nominees:
Dien van Straalen - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Ngila Dickson - The Last Samurai
Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Wendy Stites - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Judianna Makovksy - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Film Editing

Will Win: Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Daniel Rezende - City Of God
Should have been nominated: Stephen Mirrione - 21 Grams
Wish had been nominated: Sally Menke - Kill Bill, Vol. 1, Peter Christelis - In This World

Nominees:
Daniel Rezende - City Of God
Walter Murch - Cold Mountain
Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Lee Smith - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
William Goldenberg - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Makeup

Will Win: Peter King and Richard Taylor - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should have been nominated: Toni G - Monster
Wish had been nominated: Jenny Shircore - Girl With A Pearl Earring (just for Scarlett’s HANDS!)

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

===

Achievement In Music (Original Score)

Will Win: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Danny Elfman - Big Fish (just to see Big Fish get something)
Should have been nominated: Alexandre Desplat - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Wish had been nominated: Kill Bill, Vol. 1 (I know, I know, but it’s my favorite soundtrack of the year)

Nominees:
Danny Elfman - Big Fish
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo
James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

===

Achievement In Music (Original Song)

Will Win: "Into The West"

Should Win: It doesn’t matter. They’re all good and worthy.
Personal Preference: “The Triplets of Belleville” (I could listen to this song for hours)
Should have been nominated: Kate Bush, “This Woman’s Work” - She’s Having A Baby (oh wait, that was 1988. Am I still bitter? Hell yes, I’m still bitter!)
Wish had been nominated: Kate Bush, “Be Kind To My Mistakes” - Castaway (oh wait, that was 1987. The film was too obscure)

Nominees:
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, “Into The West” - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, “A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow” - A Mighty Wind
Elvis Costello & T-Bone Burnett, “Scarlet Tide” - Cold Mountain
Mathieu Chedid, “The Triplets of Belleville” - The Triplets of Belleville
Sting, “You Will Be My Own True Love” - Cold Mountain

===

Achievement In Sound

Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Should have been nominated: Either of the Matrix movies
Wish had been nominated: Unsure

Nominees:
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Sound Editing

Will Win: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Should Win: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Personal Preference: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Should have been nominated: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Wish had been nominated: Either of the Matrix movies

Nominees:
Finding Nemo
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

===

Achievement In Visual Effects

Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should have been nominated: either of the Matrix movies
Wish had been nominated: Peter Pan

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

===
**
Best Documentary Feature**

Will Win: Capturing The Friedmans

Should Win: (I’m not qualified to pick, I haven’t seen any of them)
Personal Preference:
Should have been nominated: ?
Wish had been nominated: Joy Of Madness

Nominees:
Balseros
Capturing The Friedmans
The Fog Of War
My Architect: A Son’s Journey
The Weather Underground

===

Best Documentary Short Subject

Will Win: Chernobyl Heart (a guess based on description)

Should Win: (I’m not qualified to pick, I haven’t seen any of them)
Personal Preference:
Should have been nominated: ?
Wish had been nominated: ?

Nominees:
Asylum
Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales

===

Best Animated Short Film

Will Win: Destino (guessed partly because people want to hear what Roy Disney will say)

Should Win: (I’m not qualified to pick, I haven’t seen any of them)
Personal Preference: Boundin’ (hey, it’s Pixar)
Should have been nominated: ?
Wish had been nominated: ?

Nominees:
Boundin’
Destino
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles

===

Best Live Action Short Film

Will Win: Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket) (a guess based on description)

Should Win: (I’m not qualified to pick, I haven’t seen any of them)
Personal Preference:
Should have been nominated:
Wish had been nominated:

Nominees:
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
Most (The Bridge)
Squash
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)
Two Soldiers

===

12

Equipoise, you need to get out more. :wink:

13

Ha, I know. To not have seen any of the documentaries…

14

Remember, lawyers, this game is the sole creation of ArchiveGuy, and although it utilizes their resources, is not affiliated with The Chicago Reader, Uncle Cece, Little Ed and everyone else repsonsible for the Straight Dope newspaper column, website, and message board, ABC, Disney, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, of which Oscar®, Oscars®, Oscar Night®, Academy Award®, Academy Awards®, and the design of the Oscar® statuette are registered trademarks of.

I’m all about the animated shorts category. I mean, it’s a fight. Boundin’. Some sort of Pixar film. Pixar is always a hit. Destino. Dali meets Disney. Roy E. Disney, executive producer. What will happen if it wins? Will he bad-mouth Eisner? Two others. Eh. Never heard of them. Gone Nutty. Now here we go! It stars Scrat, that lovable scamp from Ice Age. If it wins, will Scrat accept the award? Can he accept the award? If he does, will he jump around carrying it on his back like he does the acorns? Will he be hilariously injured, as always, if so? So many questions…so many stupid questions!

15

Just dropping by to let everyone know I’m in again. I won this thing last year and got the Lion in Winter soundtrack.

I doubt I’ll win this year. It’s a much more difficult race to call this year. Good luck everyone!

16

Count me in, too.

17

I’m in as well. What the hell… this pool doesn’t cost anything to enter!

This may be a lame post with little in the way of real content, but I didn’t want to be as obvious as ArchiveGuy in bumping the thread.

18

I don’t have time to try to match equipoise’s mighty post but I would like it to be on the the record that if the Academy passes up Erroll Morris (**Best Documentary: * The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert McNamara ***) again I am personally going to burn Hollywood to the ground.

I think this is the first time he’s been nominated, which is shameful enough considering the scope and beauty of his work. To not recognize him for this brilliant film would be a sin.

19

Well, I’m signed up. Barely. Had to use my dad’s likeness to sign up. So if I somehow win, he gets the prize.

Stupid eighteen and over rules…

20

I won again!!!

I’m stunned!!! I’m thrilled!!!
I’d like to thank my agent, my producer and movie staff, and of course, the Academy for holding these lovely awards every year. I am blown away!!!

Stunning!!!

Two in a row!!!

:smiley:

:smiley:

:smiley: