The 2nd Annual SDMB Oscar Prediction Contest! (pt.1)

We’re in the midst of Oscar season* now (and earlier than usual) with Academy ballots already out and the nomination announcements a mere two weeks away, so we continue with…

**The 2nd Annual SDMB
** Academy Award
Prediction Contest

  • (with real prizes!)*

The Contest will be in 2 parts:

  1. Predicting the Nominees
  2. Predicting the Winners

Separate prizes will be given for parts 1 & 2. The first part starts today: submitting your tallies for who will be the 5 nominees in the following categories:

Picture
Actor
Actress
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay

Be sure to specify the actor and film in those categories. No more than 5 predictions will be recognized in each category.

Additionally, you are asked to submit one prediction for a nominee in each of the following categories:

Cinematography
Art Direction
Costume Design
Editing
Sound
Sound Editing
Original Score
Original Song
Visual Effects
Make-up
Animated Feature
Foreign-Language Film

There is one catch, though: You cannot predict a film more than once in these last 12 technical/craft categories listed. Sure, it’d be easy to predict a nomination sweep for, say, Lord of the Rings. But limiting you to one film (1) forces you to consider smaller films that always fill out the annual nominee slate, and (2) makes the contest more interesting and less repetitive.

Scoring is simple: One point for each correct guess. There are a couple ways to earn bonus points:

(1) If you correctly guess all 5 nominees in one of the first 8 categories, you earn an extra point.
(2) If you are the only person to guess a particular nominee correctly, you earn an extra point.

Now, a few rules:

  1. All prediction ballots must be posted in this thread (no personal e-mails to me).
  2. All predictions must be on a single post.
  3. You are only allowed one subsequent post to change predictions. Any other requests to change will be ignored.
  4. All posts must be submitted by 12:01 am PST, Tuesday, January 27.

Some helpful links:

This is the list of all films eligible for the various feature film categories. Make all your predictions from films on this list. This is a list of the films submitted for Foreign Language film. Unless a foreign language film is on this list, it is not eligible in this category, even if it received theatrical release in the US in '03.

And yes, I meant it: I will be putting up a prize for whoever wins either Part I or Part II (Predict the Winners), as I did last year.

Good Luck!

AG

*[sub]yes, I know the Oscars are a load of crap, but irresistible crap–plus, every once in a while, they do get something right.[/sub]

Picture
Winner: Mystic River

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Cold Mountain
Lost In Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Actor:
Winner: Alec Baldwin (The Cooler)

Nominees:
Jude Law (Cold Mountain)
Russell Crowe (Master and Commander)
Sean Penn (Mystic River)
Bill Murray (Lost In Translation)

Actress
Winner: Charlize Theron (Monster)

Nominees:
Nicole Kidman (Cold Mountain)
Jennifer Connelly (House Of Sand And Fog)
Naomi Watts (21 Grams)
Keira Knightley (Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl)
Supporting Actor
Winner: Tim Robbins (Mystic River)

Nominees:
Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)
Albert Finney (Big Fish)
Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams)
Paul Bettany (Master and Commander)
Supporting Actress
Winner: Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)

Nominees:
Emma Thompson (Love, Actually)
Holly Hunter (Thirteen)
Ellen Degeneres (Finding Nemo)
Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River)
Director
Winner: Peter Jackson (The Return Of The King)

Nominees:
Clint Eastwood (Mystic River)
Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain)
Tim Burton (Big Fish)
Sofia Coppola (Lost In Translation)

Original Screenplay
Winner: Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain)

Nominees:
In America - Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, Kirsten Sheridan
Lost in Translation - Sofia Coppola
Love Actually - Richard Curtis
Mystic River - Brian Helgeland

Adapted Screenplay
Winner: The Return Of the King

Nominees:
I dunno.

I apologize for a poor link in the OP. This is the reminder list for all films from 2003 eligible for the various feature film categories.

Thanks for posting IL. Note to everyone, though–you don’t need to predict who the winners will be (that’s the 2nd contest, coming in February). Just predict who the nominees are going to be. I’ll post my predictions in a few days (probably when the thread needs bumping).

Carry on!

Well, now that football season is over for my Chiefs, I might as well concentrate on the Oscars!

Best Actor:
Tom Cruise - The Last Samurai
Sean Penn - Mystic River
Jack Nicholson - Something’s Gotta Give
Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Carribean

Best Actress:
Nicole Kidman - Cold Mountain
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
Jamie Lee Curtis - Freaky Friday
Charlize Theron - Monster
Scarlet Johannson - Lost in Translation
Best Supporting Actress:
Rene Zellweger - Cold Mountain
Kiera Knightly - Pirates of the Carribean
Hope Davis - American Splendor
Maria Bello - The Cooler
Laura Linney - Mystic River

Best Supporting Actor:
Chris Cooper - Seabiscuit
Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watanabe - Last Samurai
Keanu Reeves - Something’s Gotta Give
Steven Carell - Bruce Almighty

Best Picture:
Lord of the Rings - Return of the King
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander
Mystic River
The Last Samurai

Best Director
Tim Burton - Big Fish
Peter Jackson - LOTR
Peter Weir - Master and Commander
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River
Ed Zwick - Last Samurai

Orig Screen Play - I really have no idea other than:
Mystic River

Adapted Screen Play - Same for this one:
Lord of the Rings
Seabiscuit

Here goes nothing. And I still hope Andy Serkis and the WETA team get a special achievement award.

Best Picture
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Cold Mountain
Lost In Translation
The House of Sand and Fog
Master and Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Actor
Jude Law (Cold Mountain)
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean)
Bill Murray (Lost In Translation)
Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog)
Sean Penn (Mystic River)

Actress
Charlize Theron (Monster)
Diane Keaton (Something’s Got to Give)
Nicole Kidman (Cold Mountain)
Jennifer Connelly (House Of Sand And Fog)
Julia Roberts (Mona Lisa Smile)

Supporting Actor
Tim Robbins (Mystic River)
Sean Astin (LOTR:ROTK)
Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)
Albert Finney (Big Fish)
Andy Serkis (LOTR:ROTK) (wishful thinking)

Supporting Actress
Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)
Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River)
Scarlett Johansson (Lost in Translation)
Keira Knightley (Bend It Like Beckham)
Holly Hunter (thirteen)

Director
Peter Jackson (The Return Of The King)
Clint Eastwood (Mystic River)
Peter Weird (Master and Commander)
Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain)
Sofia Coppola (Lost In Translation)

Original Screenplay
Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain)
Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation)
Gurinder Chadha (Bend It Like Beckham)
Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, and David Reynolds (Finding Nemo)
Jim, Naomi, and Kirsten Sheridan (In America)

Adapted Screenplay
LOTR:ROTK
Cold Mountain
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander

Cinematography
House of Sand and Fog

Art Direction
Big Fish

Costume Design
The Last Samurai

Editing
21 Grams

Sound
Master and Commander

Sound Editing
Seabiscuit

Original Score
LOTR:ROTK

Original Song
“School of Rock” (School of Rock)

Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean

Make-up
Monster

Animated Feature
Finding Nemo

Foreign-Language Film
“The Barbarian Invasions”

Best Actor:

Russell Crowe - Master & Commander
Philip Seymour Hoffmann- Owning Mahoney
Peter Dinklage - The Station Agent
Ian McKellen- LOTR: Return of the King
Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
Best Actress:
Nicole Kidman - Cold Mountain
Julia Roberts- Mona Lisa Smile
Charlize Theron - Monster
Angelina Jolie- Beyond Borders
Minnie Driver- Owning Mahoney

Best Supporting Actress:
Rene Zellweger - Cold Mountain
Helena Bonham Carter- Big Fish
Laura Linney- Mystic River
Christina Ricci- Monster
Julia Stiles- Mona Lisa Smile

Best Supporting Actor:
Ewan MacGregor- Big Fish
Paul Bettany- Master and Commander
Sonny Chiba- Kill Bill Volume 1
Albert Finney-Big Fish
Morgan Freeman-Bruce Almighty
Best Picture:
LOTR:ROTK
Master and Commander
Cold Mountain
The Station Agent
Sea Biscuit

Best Director
Tim Burton - Big Fish
Anthony Minghella- Cold Mountain
Clint Eastwood- Mystic River
Peter Jackson - LOTR: ROTK
Patty Jenkins- Monster

Orig Screen Play -
Patty Jenkins- Monster
Sofia Coppola- Lost in Translation
Quentin Tarantino- Kill Bill: Volume 1
Larry Konner-Mona Lisa Smile
Thomas McCarthy- The Station Agent

Adapted Screen Play -
Frances Walsh- LOTR:ROTK
Anthony Minghella-Cold Mountain
Gary Ross- Seabiscuit
John August-Big Fish
Brian Helgeland-Mystic River
Cinematography: Cold Mountain
Art Direction: LOTR:ROTK
Costume Design: Master and Commander
Editing:Pirates of the Carribean
Sound: Station Agent
Sound Editing:School of Rock
Original Score:Kill Bill Volume 1
Original Song: Mona Lisa Smile
Visual Effects: Matrix Revolutions
Make-up:Monster
Animated Feature:Finding Nemo
Foreign-Language Film:Effroyables jardins

Picture
RotK
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Lost In Translation
Master and Commander

Actor
Bill Murray- LiT
Sean Penn- Mystic River
Ben Kingsely- House of Sand and Fog
Paul Giamatti- American Splendor
Russell Crowe- M&C

Actress
Charlize Theron- Monster
Diane Keaton- Something’s Gotta Give
Naomi Watts- 21 Grams
Nicole Kidman- Cold Mountain
Jennifer Connolly- House of Sand and Fog

Supporting Actor
Tim Robbins- Mystic River
Ken Watanabe- Last Samurai
Benicio Del Toro- 21 Grams
Alec Baldwin- Cooler
Albert Finney- Big Fish

Supporting Actress
Renee Zellwegger- Cold Mountain
Marcia Gay Harden- Mystic River
Patricia Clarkson- Pieces of April
Scarlett Johansson- LiT
Holly Hunter- 13

Director
PJ- RotK
Clint- Mystic River
Sophia Coppolla- LiT
Peter Weir- M&C
Vadim Perelman- House of Sand and Fog

Original Screenplay
LiT
Finding Nemo
21 Grams
In America
Bend It Like Beckham

Adapted Screenplay
Mystic River
RotK
American Splendor
M&C
Seabiscuit

Cinematography- Lost in Translation
Art Direction- Big Fish
Costume Design-Last Samurai
Editing- Master and Commander
Sound- T3
Sound Editing- Kill Bill Vol. 1
Original Score- RotK
Original Song-Bono, In America
Visual Effects-X2
Make-up- Monster
Animated Feature- Finding Nemo
Foreign-Language Film- The Barbarian Invasions

A couple things, though:

Cold Mountain & Mystic River are both book adaptations, so they belong in the Adapted Screenplay category (Ilsa_Lund, HelloKitty, and Astra need to make some adjustments–you’ve all got 1 more post to make any changes you want).

Sampiro: The semi-finalists for Sound Editing and Visual Effects have already been determined, and neither School of Rock nor Matrix Revolutions made it through the Academy “Bake-Offs”. Clink the links to see which films are eligible; for the record, here are the Make-Up semi-finalists, too. You have 1 more post to make any further changes, if you want.

Otherwise, everything looks great! Keep it up, Dopers! :slight_smile:

Sorry I didn’t bump this earlier, but now’s your chance to participate. You’ve got the weekend (the Golden Globes are on Sunday) and all day Monday to make your guesses.

Since I’m ponying up a prize, I’m also submitting my own predictions:

PICTURE
Cold Mountain
In America
LOTR: Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

ACTOR
Russell Crowe, Master and Commander
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River

ACTRESS
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sean Astin, LOTR: ROTK
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Maria Bello, The Cooler
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

DIRECTOR
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Peter Jackson, LOTR: ROTK
Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
Peter Weir, Master and Commander

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Finding Nemo
In America
Lost in Translation
The Station Agent
21 Grams

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Splendor
Cold Mountain
LOTR: ROTK
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Girl with the Pearl Earring
ART DIRECTION: The Last Samurai
COSTUME DESIGN: Pirates of the Caribbean
FILM EDITING: Mystic River
SOUND: LOTR: ROTK
SOUND EDITING: Seabiscuit
VISUAL EFFECTS: Master and Commander
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Triplets of Belleville
ORIGINAL SCORE: Big Fish
ORIGINAL SONG: “Time Enough for Tears”, In America
MAKE UP: Monster
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Goodbye, Lenin!

Good Luck, Everybody! :slight_smile:

Best Picture - Mystic River

Nominees

  • Lord of the Rings - Return of the King
  • Master and Commander
  • Cold Mountain
  • In America

Best Actor - Sean Penn (Mystic River)

Nominees
-Johnny Depp (Pirates)
-Bill Murray (Lost in Translation)
-Paul Giamatti (American Splendor)
-Jude Law (Cold Mountain)

Best Actress - Charlize Theron (Monster)

Nominees
-Naomi Watts (21 Grams)
-Nicole Kidman(Cold Mountain)
-Diane Keaton(Something’s Gotta Give)
-Jennifer Connolly (House of Sand and Fog)

Best Supporting Actor - Tim Robbins (Mystic River)

  • Paul Bettany (Master and Commander)
    -Colin Firth (Love Actually)
    -Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)
    -Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams)

Best Supporting Actress - Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)

Nominees

  • Scarlett Johansson (Lost in Translation)
    -Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River)
    -Hope Davis (American Splendor)
    -Laura Linney (Mystic River)

Director - Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings)

Nominees
-Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation)
-Clint Eastwood (Mystic River)
-Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain)
-Tim Burton (Big Fish)

Original Screenplay - In America

Nominees
21 Grams
Lost in Translation
Love Actually
Monster

Adapted Screenplay - Mystic River

Nominees
Lord of the Rings
Cold Mountain
House of Sand and Fog
Master and Commander

Cinematography - Kill Bill Vol. 1
Art Direction - Big Fish
Costume Design - Cold Mountain
Editing - 21 Grams
Sound - Master and Commander
Sound Editing - The Last Samurai
Original Score - Lord of the Rings
Original Song - “Time Enough for Tears” In America
Visual Effects - Seabiscuit
Make-up - Monster
Animated Feature - The Triplets of Belleville
Foreign-Language Film - The Barbarian Invasions

Gah, I forgot to alter my list before I submitted. If you’ll permit me, I’d like to change my pick for Visual Effects to Pirates of the Carribean. I wasn’t thinking.

A pre-Golden Globe Bump

Pitcture
Cold Mountain
LOTR:ROTK
Lost in Translation
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Actor
Russell Crowe, Master and Commander
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River

Actress
Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Scarlet Johansson, Girl with a Pearl Earring
Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Albert Finney, Big Fish
William H. Macy, Seabiscuit
Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Supporting Actress
Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Scarlet Johansson, Lost in Translation
Emma Thompson, Love Actually
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Director
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Peter Jackson, LOTR:ROTK
Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
Peter Weir, Master and Commander

Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
Cold Mountain
Mystic River
LOTR:ROTK
Seabiscuit

Original Screenplay

Bend it Like Beckham
In America
Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Lost in Translation
The Barbarian Invasions

Cinematography - Lost in Translation
Art Direction - Big Fish
Editing - Kill Bill, Vol 1
Costume Design - The Last Samurai
Sound - Master and Commander
Sound Editing - X2: X-Men United
Original Score - LOTR:ROTK
Original Song - A Mighty Wind
Visual Effects - Pirates of the Caribbean
Makeup - Monster
Animated Feature - Finding Nemo
Foreign Language Film - Divine Intervention

What, no documentary category?

Yeah, I was considering that but excluded it this time around (perhaps unwisely). Oh well–maybe next year.

Oh, and Treviathan: X2 isn’t one of the Sound Editing finalists–check my link above if you want to switch to another eligible choice.

Last Day, Dopers! You’ve got nothing to lose and a prize to gain!

What the heck, I’ll play.

Best Picture:
Return of the King*
Cold Mountain
In America
Lost In Translation
Mystic River

Best Actor:
Sean Penn, Mystic River*
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Russell Crowe, Master and Commander
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Carribbean

Best Actress:
Charlize Theron, Monster*
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen

Best Supporting Actor:
Sean Astin, Return of the King*
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Albert Finney, Big Fish
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai

Best Supporting Actress:
Rene Zellweger, Cold Mountain*
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Scarlett Johanson, Lost in Translation

Best Director:
Peter Jackson, Return of the King*
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
Peter Weir, Master and Commander

Best Original Screenplay
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation*
Richard Curtis, Love Actually
Thomas McCarthey, The Station Agent
Jim Sheridan & crew, In America
Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, and David Reynolds, Finding Nemo

Best Adapted Screenplay
Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, and Fran Walsh, Return of the King*
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, American Splendor
Brian Helgeland, Mystic River
Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit

Cinematography: Seabiscuit

Art Direction: Return of the King

Costume Design: Pirates of the Caribbean

Editing: Mystic River

Sound: Cold Mountain

Sound Editing: The Last Samurai

Original Score: Finding Nemo

Original Song: Big Fish

Visual Effects: Master and Commander

Make-up: Monster

Animated Feature: Brother Bear

Foreign-Language Film: Goodbye, Lenin

Here is my corrected entry:

Best Picture
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Cold Mountain
Lost In Translation
The House of Sand and Fog
Master and Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Actor
Jude Law (Cold Mountain)
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean)
Bill Murray (Lost In Translation)
Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog)
Sean Penn (Mystic River)

Actress
Charlize Theron (Monster)
Diane Keaton (Something’s Got to Give)
Nicole Kidman (Cold Mountain)
Jennifer Connelly (House Of Sand And Fog)
Julia Roberts (Mona Lisa Smile)

Supporting Actor
Tim Robbins (Mystic River)
Sean Astin (LOTR:ROTK)
Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)
Albert Finney (Big Fish)
Andy Serkis (LOTR:ROTK) (wishful thinking)

Supporting Actress
Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)
Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River)
Scarlett Johansson (Lost in Translation)
Keira Knightley (Bend It Like Beckham)
Holly Hunter (thirteen)

Director
Peter Jackson (The Return Of The King)
Clint Eastwood (Mystic River)
Peter Weir (Master and Commander)
Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain)
Sofia Coppola (Lost In Translation)

Original Screenplay
Lost in Translation
Bend It Like Beckham
Finding Nemo
In America
Monster

Adapted Screenplay
LOTR:ROTK
Cold Mountain
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander

Cinematography
House of Sand and Fog

Art Direction
Big Fish

Costume Design
The Last Samurai

Editing
21 Grams

Sound
Master and Commander

Sound Editing
Seabiscuit

Original Score
LOTR:ROTK

Original Song
“Time Enough for Tears” In America

Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean

Make-up
Monster

Animated Feature
Finding Nemo

Foreign-Language Film
“The Barbarian Invasions”

Complete list of Oscar nominations
RotK picks up 11.

Crap. New system ate my long post. So, to make matters brief, it was a nailbiter, but watsonwil is the winner! Congratulations! And thanks to everyone else for participating.

Now, if watsonwil e-mails me a snail mail address, I can send out a brand new CD of the Oscar-winning score to Breakfast at Tiffany’s (in honor or this year’s Lifetime Achievement winner Blake Edwards as well as Henry Mancini, who gets a USPS stamp in 2004).

Stay tuned for more prizes with the second contest–guessing the winners! Coming soon! :slight_smile: