2007 SDMB Oscar Prediction Contest (with prizes!)

Cafe Society
1

Since I had no luck getting the thread title changed here, allow me to update/reiterate:

Welcome to the Annual SDMB Oscar Prediction Contest!

We have our own designated group at Oscar.com. It’s called Cecil’s Kids and the password is “opal”. There, we can easily track who’s guessing what, and it will tabulate the scores throughout the ceremony and determine a final winner.

I always have a soundtrack prize, and this year is no exception. Although I haven’t picked a specific album, it will be one by the great Ennio Morricone, who is (at long last) richly earning an Honorary Academy Award this year.

As before, the only real “catch” is that you have to sign up to ABC.com to be eligible for the prize. If you want to abstain, that’s fine–just post your predictions here and we’ll tabulate those separately for bragging rights. If you want to win the CD, you must log into the Oscar.com site (it’s free, of course, and I never ever get any spam from them throughout the year).

We’ve always had a healthy turnout and here’s hoping this is no exception; certainly, some of the categories are up-in-the-air enough that it should prove pretty interesting.

We already have a couple people signed up, but as always, the More the Merrier!

2

Yay! I look forward to this every year!

3

Cool beans! If no one else enters, I’m a shoo-in!

4

I joined too! I’m excited.

5

In all fairness, I should’ve provided a link that took everyone to the prediction page more easily. Here it is (sorry twickster :slight_smile: )

6

Curses! Foiled again!

7

:sets himself up for failure:

I won this thing a few years ago, came in 2nd the next year, and got all but 2 correct last year.

However, this year is much tougher!

Good luck everyone!

Game on!

8

The Lafayette Journal & Courier has a similar contest, but predictions were solicited in only eleven of the categories, and the prizes are books of passes to the local Goodrich Quality Theater outlets. For the SDMB competition, I duplicated my picks in the relevant categories, and (more or less randomly) guessed the remaining winners. Since I’ve only seen two of the films involved (Little Miss Sunshine and An Inconvenient Truth), it’ll be interesting to see how I stack up against the more serious film buffs!

9

I won this a few years ago too (got a Breakfast At Tiffanys CD!) but it was a total fluke. Instead of picking who/what I thought would win, I just straight out picked who/what I wanted to win, which entailed a complete Return of the King sweep. Of course, no way in hell was Return of the King going to sweep, so I never expected to win. It never even crossed my mind I would win.

Return of the King swept. Whoo!! Best Oscars EVER for me personally!

This year I have no idea, and don’t really care. I’ve seen all the nominees except for Half Nelson and United 93, but I really have no horses in this race. After last year’s Brokeback Mountain loss (the Worst Oscars Ever for me) I decided it’s not a good thing to get emotionally invested in the results. I’m happy for all the nominees and I’ll be OK with the winners*.

This year I chose a mixture of movies/people I think will win and movies/people I want to win. I might change the winners sometime between now and tomorrow night.

Best Picture
Will win: BABEL
Want to win: The Departed
Should or should probably win: Letters From Iwo Jima

Actor in a Leading Role
**Will win: Peter O´Toole **
Want to win: Peter O´Toole or Leo Dicaprio
Should or should probably win: Forest Whitaker (I still think he was Supporting)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Alan Arkin
Want to win: Jackie Earle Haley
Should or should probably win: Eddie Murphy (Norbit could hurt him)

Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Helen Mirren
Want to win: Penélope Cruz
Should or should probably win: Judi Dench or Helen Mirren

Actress in a Supporting Role
**Will win: Jennifer Hudson **
Want to win: Adriana Barraza
Should or should probably win: Cate Blanchett

Animated Feature Film
**Will win: CARS **
Want to win: Monster House
Should or should probably win: Monster House

Art Direction
**Will win: PAN´S LABYRINTH **
Want to win: The Good Shepherd or Pan’s Labyrinth
Should or should probably win: Pan’s Labyrinth

Cinematography
**Will win: CHILDREN OF MEN **
Want to win: Children of Men Or Pan’s Labyrinth
Should or should probably win: The Prestige

Costume Design
Will win: CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
Want to win: Marie Antoinette
Should or should probably win: Curse of the Golden Flower

Directing
Will win: Martin Scorsese
Want to win: Martin Scorsese
Should or should probably win: Martin Scorsese

Documentary Feature
Will win: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Want to win: No opinion (since Shut Up and Sing wasn’t nominated)
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Documentary Short Subject
Will win: THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT
Want to win: No opinion
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Film Editing
Will win: THE DEPARTED
Want to win: Thelma!
Should or should probably win: United 93 (from what I’ve heard)

Foreign Language Film
Will win: PAN´S LABYRINTH
Want to win: Pan’s Labyrinth
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Makeup
Will win: APOCALYPTO
Want to win: Apocalypto
Should or should probably win: Apocalypto

Music (Original Score)
Will win: THE GOOD GERMAN
Want to win: The Good German
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Music (Original Song)
**Will win: “Listen” - DREAMGIRLS **
Want to win: “Listen”
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Short Film (Animated)
**Will win: THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL **
Want to win: No opinion
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Short Film (Live Action)
Will win: WEST BANK STORY
Want to win: No opinion
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Sound Editing
**Will win: APOCALYPTO **
Want to win: Apocalypto
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Sound Mixing
**Will win: APOCALYPTO **
Want to win: Apocalypto
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Visual Effects
Will win: PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN´S CHEST
Want to win: No opinion
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
**Will win: CHILDREN OF MEN **
Want to win: Children of Men or Borat
Should or should probably win: No opinion

Writing (Original Screenplay)
**Will win: LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE **
Want to win: Pan’s Labyrinth
Should or should probably win: No opinion

  1. Unless Little Miss Sunshine wins Best Picture, then I’ll be sad for it because it’ll become the butt of jokes and first on any future list of Movies That Shouldn’t Have Won Best Picture. It’ll be hated, and it doesn’t deserve to be hated.
  2. Unless Marty loses which would just be such a huge slap in the face to him
10

For a final bump, here’s where my votes would go (* indicates it’s also my predicted winner):

Apocalypto: Sound Mixing
Babel: Suppporting Actress (Kikuchi)
Children of Men: Cinematography*
Curse of the Golden Flower: Costume Design
The Departed: Picture*, Director*, Adapted Screenplay*
Dreamgirls: Song (“Listen”)*
Half Nelson: Actor (Gosling)
Letters from Iwo Jima: Sound Editing*
Little Children: Supporting Actor (Haley)*
Pan’s Labyrinth: Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Makeup*, Original Score*
Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC: Visual Effects*
The Prestige: Art Direction
The Queen: Actress (Mirren)*
United 93: Editing
We have 16 Dopers signed up so far! Good Luck to everybody, and Thanks for Playing! :slight_smile:

11

I made my picks!

12

I’ll be damned if I can find the place on that Web site to enter the contest.

13

The link in post #5 will take you there, as will this link.

14

Not open to anyone who doesn’t live in the United States. Any other ideas, or is this an American-only SDMB contest?

15

State: California
Zip: 90210

That is what I did. I don’t know, maybe it is American only, if so…oops.

16

Most definitely not–if you win, I’ll ship internationally.

If putting a fake zip doesn’t work, just post your guesses here and I’ll count them with everyone else (I’ll only do this for you foreigners!). Best of luck, since Canada is one of the 5 Foreign Language nominees.

17

Aw damn, this is what I get for procrastinating and not putting my picks on the Oscar website – editing is now locked. So I’m destined to be in last place on the official list, even though I’ll still list my picks here. :frowning:

So here goes:

Best Picture: The Departed

Director: Scorsese

Actor: Forrest Whitaker

Actress: Helen Mirren

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy

Editing: Departed

Animated Feature: Cars

Foreign Languge Film: Pan’s Labyrinth

Dunno about the rest, though I may edit this post to add some categories if I get an inspiration between now and showtime.

18

Picture: The Departed
Director: Clint Eastwood
Actor: Whittaker
Actress: Winslet (yes, a HUGE upset guess - but the Academy is enormously biased towards young actresses in this category)
Sup. Actor: Arkin
Sup. Actress: Hudson
Cinematography: The Prestige
Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth
Editing: United 93
Costume Design: Marie Antionette
Best Animated Feature: Cars
Animated Short: The Danish Poet
Beat Foreign Language Film: Pan’s Labyrinth
Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine
Ad. Screenplay: Little Children
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Documentary Short: Rehearsing a Dream
Live Action Short: The Saviour
Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth
Original Score: The Good German
Song: “Our Town,” Cars
Sound Editing: Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean 2

19

I’d like to change that “No opinion” to Apocalypto. I haven’t learned more about Sound Mixing in the past day or so, but I have learned more about the person who’s nominated, **Kevin O’Connell ** . This is his 19th! nomination in 22 years with NO wins. He used to be a firefighter and his mother, who worked in the Sound department at 20th Century Fox (I think), talked him into coming to work there. He obviously had a talent for Sound Mixing so I think he should win. It’s time. And besides, if he wins that means that Apocalypto goes home with at least one Oscar.

I’d love to see him win and get an “IT’S ABOUT TIME!” standing ovation.

His nominations list (remember, he’s a sound guy, and has nothing to do with script or direction):

Apocalypto (2006)
Memoirs of a Geisha
Spider-Man 2
Spider-Man
Pearl Harbor
The Patriot
Armageddon
The Mask of Zorro
Con Air
The Rock
Twister
Crimson Tide
A Few Good Men
Days of Thunder
Black Rain
Top Gun
Silverado
Dune
Terms of Endearment (1984)

20

Just on the line:

Picture: Letters From Iwo Jima
Director: Martin Scorsese
Actor: Peter O’Toole
Actress: Judi Dench
Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy
Supporting Actress: Breslin
Cinematography: Pan’s Labyrinth
Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth
Editing: United 93
Costume Design: Marie Antionette
Best Animated Feature: Cars
Animated Short: The little Match Girl
Beat Foreign Language Film: Pan’s Labyrinth
Screenplay: Letters From Iwo Jima
Adapted Screenplay: Borat
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Documentary Short: Recycled life
Live Action Short: West Bank Story
Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth
Original Score: The Good German
Song: Cars
Sound Editing: Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Sound Mixing: Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean 2