(I can’t believe there’s no Oscar thread going yet…)
It will turn out to be a surprisingly good year for Gosford Park. Picture, Director, Supporting Actress.
Actress: Sissy Spacek
Actor: Denzel Washington–a makeup vote for Malcolm X, and Russell Crowe seems to have worn out his welcome.
LOTR:FOTR will get the technical awards (fx, makeup, maybe set design, cinematography and score). I’d love to see Ian McKellen win, but it’ll probably go to Broadbent or Kingsley.
Moulin Rouge: shut out.
I think A Beautiful Mind will win best picture and Nicole will win best actress.
I’ve been wondering, for a few days now, why no one has started an Oscar thread. I was about to start one when I saw this one. Now I’m shocked it’s gone so long without a response.
In any case, this is cut and pasted from an email I wrote to someone a few days after the nominations were announced:[ul]OK, reading the nominees:
Picture
Beautiful Mind has the Oscary, MOR feel; numbers are with LOTR. I don’t know; Ron Howard’s MOR track record (Grinch aside) might be seen as just enough dues paid. He’s earned an Oscar for commercial consistency, if not for artistic merit. In the Bedroom, too small; Rouge, too funky; Gosford, too Altmany; LOTR, too SF.
Actor
Russell Crowe would be the frontrunner if he hadn’t just won one. He’s not a two-oscars-in-a-row kind of actor; too rude too paparazzi. Smith hasn’t earned it; Wilkinson’s too English, too Sundancey. Hollywood still hates Sean Penn. Everybody likes Denzel. Unpleasant character, though; Sean’s in second, but nah, Denzel.
Actress
All underdogs this year! Dench is too charactery, too supporty; she’s not seen as a hollywood leading lady. Though I think she’s out front, just on points for dues paid. Halle’s too sexy; not yet taken seriously enough. She needs to skip a few hi-glam films and do a few indies in a row. Renee, not enough dues paid; seen by many as a dumb blond. Kidman’s got some post-jilting sympathy, but come on, not a very meaty role. Still. Spacek’s got one, not really seen as a two-oscar gal. I think Dench, with a possible come from behind from Kidman.
Supporting male
Broadbent’s earned it. McKellen’s too gay; besides, he got a tattoo with a teenage boy; definitely counts against him. Ethan’s too . . . hollywood badboy. He looks like he smokes. He’s too Sundancey; doesn’t shave. Although after Hamlet maybe he’s taken a little more seriously. Still, he’s the baby of the bunch. Kingsley? maybe, cept not enough people saw it, and he was a reprehensible character. Voight’s got one, his kid’s got one, enough is enough. Not a three-oscar fambly. I say Broadbent.
Supporting female
Mirren’s earned it. Maggie’s got one, but she’s almost dead . . . she gets points for that. Plus she gets points for Harry Potter. People still hate Marisa for the first one; they’ll be damned if she’s gettin another. Jennifer Connolly’s done too many B-films. But she might ride the film’s cache. Kate might, just for Titanic compensation, but I hope not. I say Helen; maybe not the most likely, but by far my favorite choice.
Directors
Ron’s earned it at the box office. Peter Jackson’s hasn’t paid his hollywood dues yet; LOTR’s too SF, too FX. Altman’s too Altmany. Ridley damn well better not. Hannibal! Hannibal! Hannibal! Lynch won’t; how’d he squeak in there? He’d by my choice, artistically, but he’s WAAAAY too David Lynchy. He won’t get it just because people would be terrified to imagine his acceptance speech.
Um, wasn’t Memento based on a short story? It’ll get editing for sure. Though there’s Moulin Rouge . . . a virtuoso editing job, but also the favorite subject of the film’s detractors. [/ul] Thoughts I’ve had since then: [ul]
[li]I really hate Ron Howard movies.[/li][li]Russell Crowe is a dick.[/li][li]Spacek’s more likely than Dench.[/li][li]Who cares anyway?[/li][/ul]
Here’s an article on the subject written by our very own Cervaise.
What’s fascinating is that LOTR could be Emmy-like: the same people nominated in the same categories, year after year after year. Just as Kelsey Grammer is perennial nominee in Best Actor in a Comedy, we could see McKellen or Jackson repeating and repeating.
I wonder if any winners will say “see ya next year” as part of their acceptance…
I haven’t seen any of the pictures, so with that said…
I hope Halle Berry Doesn’t win because I think she is just eye candy.
However, if she does win, she can sink off the radar for ten to fifteen years of craptacular flicks like Marisa Tomei.
Every actress in the past few years just has not lived up to the Best Actress honor award. I can’t stand Helen Hunt (please get a hair cut or a perm or color your dull blonde straight floss hair.) and Gwenyth seems to have started sucking more after. ( I liked Sliding Doors.)
BEST PICTURE: “A Beautiful Mind.” Heavy Oscar buzz, a classic Hollywood choice. Subject matter (man with affliction) is a Hollywood favourite. 20% chance of Fellowship of the Ring upsetting it.
BEST ACTOR: I will agree with Lissener and go with Denzel. I don’t really understand his nomination, but he’s the only choice here without too much baggage, and he’s a nice, popular man. Russell Crowe could upset him; Sean Penn could be a shock winner. (They can’t hate him THAT much, this is like his fourth or fifth nomination.) No chance for Wilkinson or Smith.
BEST ACTRESS: Nicole Kidman in a walk. It wasn’t meaty, Lissener, but neither was Erin Brockovich. Kidman’s been around forever and was robbed of a nomination for “To Die For” so she will win. Dench could upset, as could Berry.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ian McKellen is an easy choice here; a longtime, highly respected actor who’s never won before but HAS been nominated, in a well-respected film, and was legitimately really good. Everything’s in his favour. Broadbent could surprise a la Marcia Gay Harden. Ethan Hawke was a ridiculous nomination.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Connolly has to be the favourite; she, too, has been around forever, and the buzz is very strong. Kate Winslet’s very close, though, being a previous nominee (twice) and a terrific actress, but A) She’s too British, and B) Jesus, does she EVER appear in a film in which she isn’t naked? They might eba fraid she’ll strip during her acceptance speech. “Oh, thank you, take a nip around the crickershanks, Bob’s your uncle, here’s my nipples, right-o!” Helen Mirren could win a lifetime achievement here but she’s an underdog. Smith was a stupid nomination - this is the same role she’s played in fifty Merchant-Ivory films - and Marisa Tomei already has one, which she earned, but as Lissener said, they hate her for it. Connolly or Winslet.
DIRECTOR: This generally goes to Best Picture and Opie has been around forever, and was unjustly robbed of a nomination for “Apollo 13.” Opie wins. Jackson could surprise. I think David Lynch is a bum who mostly just makes movies so he can coerce pretty actresses to have sex with each other.
SCREENPLAY: “Memento” really was a neat screenplay, and gritty little films with script tricks (see “The Usual Suspects”) often get their recognition in this category.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: I think this is where “In The Bedroom” will cop a trophy.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: I’d like someone to explain to me why “Final Fantasy” wasn’t nominated here. Yeah, it sucked… but if they’re gonna nominate Jimmy Neutron, they obviously don’t care about them being good films, so why not try to round it out to 4 or 5 films? Anyway, “Monsters Inc.” will win.
ART DIRECTION: They may as well have “Moulin Rouge” engraved on the trophy now. Technically, I think a lot of the art direction in Lord of the Rings was CGI. Is that art direction? I don’t think so.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Fellowship of the Ring. Really well photographed.
COSTUME DESIGN: One of the nominees here was “The Affair of the Necklace.” Boy, is this the best flick Hilary Swank could get? Next she’ll be in another Karate Kid movie… did this not have the worst goddamn trailer? “Look, a burning chair thrown out a window to the sounds of Sinead O’Connor shrieking! Holy Christ, it must mean SOMETHING, let’s get advance tickets!” Oh, the award… either Moulin Rouge or Fellowship of the Ring will win. I’d guess FotR.
FILM EDITING: They surprise with this one sometimes. One movie often sweeps the technical awards, so I’ll take “Fellowship of the Ring,” which WAS well edited, to be honest.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “Amelie.” By the way, did anyone notice that this was a remake of “Sweet November”? Or was it the other way around?
MAKEUP: I would like someone to explain to me why “Planet of the Apes” was not nominated here. I know the monkey movie was awful, but the makeup was phenomenal. “Fellowship of the Ring” will win this by acclamation.
ORIGINAL SCORE: Howard Shore’s score for “Fellowship of the Ring” would be a good choice and will probably cop the trophy.
ORIGINAL SONG: Randy Newman’s about as due as anyone has ever been.
SOUND: Normally I’d just assume the big technical nominee would win this and hand it off to “Fellowship of the Ring,” but we may see “Black Hawk Down” take this one.
SOUND EDITING: I have no idea, but I’ll pick “Pearl Harbor” because I have a fifty-fifty chance.
VISUAL EFFECTS: “Fellowship of the Ring.”
Actor - I would be very surprised if Russell Crowe doesn’t win, although I would pick Denzel. Crowe was amazing in a very “Hollywood-ish” movie, which always helps. But he’s an ass.
Actress - This is a tough one. I think it will most likely be Halle Berry, but Nicole is a definite threat. Monsters Ball was not an easy film to watch, but Halle was impressive.
Supporting Actor - Ben Kingsley. No competition.
Supporting Actress - Once again, coming from a popular movie, I think that Jennifer Connelly will win. She was excellent, but I hated that horrible make-up job at the end.
Movie - A Beautiful Mind. I forget, what else was nominated???
Moulin Rouge is a close second. LOTR? Don’t think so.
Director - Robert Altman, for lifetime achievement. He is not well liked in Hollywood, but he is old, which accounts for a great deal of the votes. I hope Ron Howard doesn’t win, I also hate his movies.
I want Ian McKellen to win best supporting actor. He brought Gandalf to life so convincingly onscreen.
…and then be nominated again in about 10 years just like Tomei has been?? Not to shabby for having sunk off the radar.
This is the first year I can remember where I haven’t seen ANY of the flicks or performances. However, that won’t stop me from making predictions–most of the Academy members probably haven’t seen most of them either and they get to actually VOTE:
Overall theme: I am going against the grain and will predict an LOTR theme. The recent negative backlash on Beautiful Mind and Russell Crowe will take it out of the front running.
Actor: Denzel Washington. It’s his time, he is the Tom Hanks of this year’s race. And, hey, playing a bad guy worked for Anthony Hopkins.
Actress: The trend of awarding skinny fashion horses will continue this year with Nicole Kidman’s win. Awww, isn’t she sweet…
Supporting Actor: McKellen. I mean, come on, he is a knight and everything.
Supporting Actress: Winslet will win as the Beautiful Mind backlash hurts Connoly.
The rest of the awards will be swept by LOTR wherever they are nominated.
Current Predicitons:
Picture: “A Beautiful Mind”
Reasons: By default. “Moulin Rouge” and “In the Bedroom” aren’t nominated for best director, which is usually a kiss of death. “Gosford Park” isn’t weighty enough. As for “Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring”: (1) Fantasy films probably won’t be taken seriously by the Academy, just as they’ve never taken sci-fi films seriously; (2) LOTR’s probable sweep through the technical categories will be seen as reward enough.
Most Likely to Pull Off the Upset: “Lord of the Rings”
Director: Ron Howard (“A Beautiful Mind”)
Reasons: The director award traditionally goes to guy behind the “Best Picture” winner. Furthermore, Howard won the Director’s Guild Award. Also, a win would make up for Howard being snubbed for “Apollo 13” in 1995.
Most Likely to Pull Off the Upset: Robert Altman (“Gosford Park”) Heck, he won the AFI and Golden Globe awards despite his picture losing; the academy may decide to give him the award in recognition of his past work.
Actor: Denzel Washington (“Training Day”)
Reasons: Washington will edge out Russell Crowe due to a combination of: (1) liberal guilt over the fact that Sidney Poitier is still the only black with an Oscar for a leading role; (2) Crowe going ballistic over the editing of his acceptance speech at the BAFTAs.
Most Likely to Pull Off the Upset: Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”)
Actress: Sissy Spacek (“In the Bedroom”)
Reasons: Until the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards threw a wrench into things by naming Halle Berry, Spacek had won all the major pre-Oscar awards (AFI Award, Golden Globe for Drama, etc.)
Most Likely to Pull Off the Upset: Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”)
Supporting Actor: Ian McKellan (“Lord of the Rings”)
Reason: (1) For the same reason they gave this award to John Geilgud for ‘Arthur’ in 1981: He’s a respected British actor with a knighthood–the Academy’s gotta give him an award for something! (2) For the same reason they gave this award to Joe Pesci for ‘Goodfellas’ in 1990 or Michael Caine for 'The Cider House Rules in 1999: The film’s been nominated for so many awards that the Academy’s going to feel obligated to give it at least one major Oscar. (3) Because the other nominees have the handicaps of either appearing in art-house films that most of the Academy hasn’t watched (Ben Kinglsey in ‘Sexy Beast’, Jim Broadbent in ‘Iris’) or in box office disapointments (Jon Voight in ‘Ali’).
Most Likely to Pull Off the Upset: Jim Broadbent (‘Iris’)
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly (“A Beautiful Mind”)
Reason: Swept all the pre-Oscar awards (Sole exception: Screen Actor Guild Awards, where she was nominated for Lead instead of Supporting Actress)
Most Likely to Pull Off the Upset: No One
Did you by any chance see the movie?
Well, you certainly have her there! Anyone with ugly hair must not be able to act!
Hmmm…looks like you need to kinda decide: to pretty to be any good, or too ugly? If everyone’s appearance knocks them out of the running, I guess no one is good enough.
Ooops. You started your post by declaring that you had no idea what the performances were. That would explain your thoughtful analysis.
My final predictions are here, for what it’s worth.
Here’s my picks from my college newspaper. I’m Richard McPike, the guy on the top row. 
Kirk
In what is IMHO, a pretty so-so year for movies, here are my picks:
BP: A Beautiful Mind
BActress: Sissy Spacek
BActor: Russell Crowe
SActress: Jennifer Connelly
SActor: Ian McKellan
BDirector: I am going with Robert Altman (IMHO, Gosford Park is his most watchable movie in forever and he deserves to lose this year simply for having made that horrible piece of drek, Dr. T and the Women, last year, but I think the Academy will reward him–why, I don’t know, but they will. I would rather see Ron Howard win.)
I’ve seen all the movies (except ALI) and I think this Oscar race is almost too close to call in many categories. That being said, here are my favorites, not necessarily who I think will win:
BEST PICTURE: IN THE BEDROOM (this film was like a punch in the stomach to me.) I thought A BEAUTIFUL MIND was manipulative; LOTR was a good but flawed film; GOSFORD PARK put me to sleep, except for Maggie Smith (more on her below), and MOULIN ROUGH was a ridiculous mess, even though I admire Baz Luhrman!
BEST ACTOR: Tom Wilkinson. He was amazing. Probably won’t win because not enough people saw this film. (But why wasn’t Billy Bob Thornton nominated? He was GREAT in both THE MAN WHO WASN’T THERE and in MONSTER’S BALL!)
BEST ACTRESS: Halle Berry. But could be overtaken by Sissy Spacek.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ian McKellen, not necessarily for LOTR but because I’ve loved him for so long. And I thought Ethan Hawke was pretty fine in TRAINING DAY. Jim Broadbent was great in IRIS, but, again I don’t think that many people saw that film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Maggie Smith is my personal favorite. Jennifer Connelly will probably win.
BEST DIRECTOR: Give it to Opie. What the heck! The GRINCH movie sucked, but they shouldn’t hold that against him.
Best Picture
Who will win: A Beautiful Mind
Who should win: In the Bedroom
In the Bedroom really has, I think, the worst chances of any of the nominees. Any of the other four might win, but I think the Academy will probably play it safe and go with the Ron Howard flick starring a conflicted hero redeemed by the love of a good woman.
Best Actor
Who will win: Russell Crowe
Who should win: Tom Wilkinson
It’ll be Crowe over Washington, I believe, simply because Training Day is perceived largely as a dispensible cop flick.
Best Actress
Who will win: Nicole Kidman
Who should win: Sissy Spacek/Halle Berry
Kidman sings, dances, falls in love, speaks with a British accent, and dies.
Best Director
Who will win: Robert Altman
Who should win: Not Opie
I think this might be the only category where the Academy’s choice will be both non-formulaic and surprising. This will be the year when Hollywood provides a major Oscar on the basis of lifetime achievement; however, it will go to Altman, not Denzel Washington. Plus, there’s been a recent divergence between the Best Picture and Best Director award (ie. Spielberg vs. Shakespeare in Love, Soderbergh vs. Gladiator), and I believe that trend will continue this year.