To be eligible for an Oscar nomination, the film has to be released on or before December 25th…so there are still a lot of films that haven’t been released yet.
However, going out on a limb, I think it is safe to predict:
Best Film Nominations:
The Departed
The Queen
Best Actor/Supporting Actor:
Pretty much every guy in The Departed.
Best Actress:
Helen Mirren for The Queen will certainly get a nomination.
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese (Finally!)
So, early predictions?
I agree with all your picks. Helen Mirren will probably win too.
Look for Altman to get a Director nod for Prairie Home Companion. He might have gotten one anyway, even if he hadn’t died (RIP).
Flushed Away, Happy Feet and Cars will be nominated for Best Animated Feature.
To use the old cliche, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Craig will get a Best Actor nomination for Casino Royale. Once everybody stops laughing, I’ll continue…
pause
Forrest Whitaker will probably be nominated and might very well win for The Last King of Scotland.
There are whispers of awe at Leonardo Dicaprio’s performace in Blood Diamond so he could get nominated for that instead of The Departed
There’s also buzz about Peter O’Toole’s performance in a movie called Venus, which opens limited on Dec. 20, and Ryan Gosling’s performance in Half-Nelson, which I missed, and I’ll kick myself (for missing it) if he gets nominated.
We have yet to see how Matt Damon and George Clooney are in their Good movies (Damon in The Good Shepherd, and Clooney in The Good German. Btw, their name similarities will cause problems, because they’re also both post-WWII period films. I wonder how many people will go to see one when they actually meant to see the other, just like I wonder how many people saw The Guardian when they actually meant to see The Departed. At least in this case I think both will be very Good movies). We also have yet to see how Will Smith is in The Persuit of Happyness (oh god I hate that title!).
Meryl Streep will get a Best Actress nomination for The Devil Wears Prada, though I honestly think she belongs in Supporting.
Documentary nominations will include An Inconvenient Truth and (oh god, please make it so) Shut Up and Sing.
Marie Antoinette should have no problem getting nods for Costume, Art Direction and Cinematography. Maybe makeup too.
There’s talk of Dreamgirls being this year’s Chicago. It’s getting phenomenal buzz.
Little Miss Sunshine will probably get an Original Screenplay nomination.
A surprise nom could be Penelope Cruz for Volver.
Children of Men will get nominations for Cinematography and Art Direction, and maybe Actor (Clive Owen), Best Picture, and Director.
Flags of Our Fathers could get Best Picture and Best Director (Clint Eastwood) nominations, but it’s iffy since the movie came, died, and went.
Who/what should get nominated and won’t? Toby Jones as Truman Capote in Infamous, because of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s win last year, Sandra Bullock (yes, Sandra Bullock) as Nelle Harper Lee in the same movie, Sasha Baron Cohen for his Borat, Catherine O’Hara as Marilyn Hack in For Your Consideration, Marie Antoinette for Best Picture, Actress (Kirsten Dunst) and Sofia Coppola as Director (ok, so I’m a dreamer). Also, Idlewild (my favorite movie of the year so far) for Costumes, Art Direction and Cinematography. The Science of Sleep for Art Direction and Screenplay (I’m not sure which category).
More as I ponder, research and as the awards season kicks into full gear (I talk in cliches way too often, I know). I said after last year’s terrible loss of Brokeback Mountain that I wasn’t going to pay attention, let alone care, about the Academy Awards anymore. And I don’t care. As much, anyway. I still can’t help myself from being curious, because being an awards season junkie is so much a part of my DNA, and what’s the awards season without the Academy Awards?
It just hit me how stupid my entire post sounded. “Cliche” is my middle name.
By the way, I think for anyone who takes a few seconds to think about it, The Good Shepherd and The Good German will be easy to tell apart.
The Good Shepherd stars Matt Damon as a budding CIA agent just as the agency is getting started during the Cold War. It also stars Angelina Jolie, Robert De Niro, Alec Baldwin and Joe Pesci. It was directed by Robert De Niro. It’s in color.
The Good German stars George Clooney as an American journalist in post-war Berlin trying to find his former mistress, who may or may not be an important link in the Cold War (that’s what I got from a combination of the IMDB synopsis and the trailer anyway). It also stars Cate Blanchett and Tobey Maguire. It was directed by Steven Soderbergh. It’s in black and white. A (bad) review on IMDB put it down by calling it “artsy fartsy” which makes me think I’m going to love it.
Is there any way Peter O’Toole doesn’t win?
It probably won’t get a best picture nod, but Paul Greengrass deserves a Best Director nomination for United 93
If Ryan Gosling and Shareeka Epps aren’t nominated for Half Nelson, I’ve had it with the Academy.
…and I’d like to see Brick up for Best Screenplay, but I’m not holding my breath.
The heavy December pics haven’t come out yet, but I’ve got five solid nominations for best picture already (all the other categories will take more thought than I’m able to put into it right now).
These are my personal nominations for best picture. Not necessarily movies that have a chance of being recognized.
**Little Children
Volver
Science of Sleep
Little Miss Sunshine
Shortbus***
*I was very surprised to love Shortbus as much as I did. I thought it would rely on shock, but there was wonderful character development and interconnectedness. I thought it was a really wonderful movie!
I have never even heard of the film before!
Will Smith
The Pursuit of Happyness
Its release was pretty limited, but check it out when it’s released on DVD (January or February '07). It’s like the opposite of an afterschool special or blockbuster weepy inner city drama in every single way.
Not at all. I was impressed by how well you knew the topic!
Chiming in here for Little Children. Clever script, based on a novel by Tom Perrotta – also the author of Election – I would think a likelihood for best screenplay adaptation (or whatever it’s called). As for Best Picture/Best Director, that might be a tall order, but certainly not out of consideration. Winslett for Best Actress? A definite possibility. And as a real longshot, Jackie Earle Haley (best known as Kelly Leake in “Bad News Bears”) for Best Supporting Actor. All depends on the competition, of course.
I think Leo deserves a Best Actor Nomination for Departed, no matter what his performance merits in Blood Diamond. Nothing wrong with multiple nominations in the same category, far from unprecedented.
I think it’s time for some Oscar trivia!
Only once in Oscar history (I think) have two individuals been nominated in the same year for playing the same role in different movies. What was the role, who played the role, and in what movies?
[spoiler]In 1999:
-Judi Dench was nominated for Best Supporting Actress in “Shakespeare in Love” (won)
-Cate Blanchett was nominated for Best Actress in “Elizabeth” (lost)
Both played Queen Elizabeth I[/spoiler]
Thank you Rodgers01! It was embarrassing that I said things like “nod” and “go out on a limb” and “buzz”. I read too many Oscar magazines/web sites.
I hope he’s not a long shot at all. I’d love to see him nominated. I think Kate’s role is too subtle, and won’t be noticed, but it is Kate Winslet.
An actor can’t be nominated twice for the same category, so Leo couldn’t be nominated for Best Actor for both The Departed and Blood Diamond. An actor can be nominated in different categories, such as Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, but in Leo’s case, he’s clearly Lead in both so voters have to choose. Really, if they wanted to, they could nominate him Best Actor in Blood Diamond and Best Supporting Actor in The Departed, but that’s unlikely.
I think he’ll get in for The Departed too.
I love that bit of trivia aclubs!
We’ll know a lot more when the awards season kicks off (<—there, I did it again) starting with the Golden Globe nominations December 14. There are some critics awards before then but I don’t know the dates yet. Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced January 4. Oscar nominations are January 24.
I missed some of the films mentioned earlier. I didn’t see Brick, Volver, Shortbus, or Half Nelson. The Pursuit of Happyness hasn’t opened yet, but I’m looking forward to it.
Ryan Gosling won for best actor for Half Nelson and Maggie Gyllenhall best actress for Sherrybaby in Stockholm, if that’s any indication at all!
I’m excited about Dream Girls.
I loved the Departed.
The Queen had an Oscar worthy performance by Mirrin, but the rest of the film felt like a Television show.
One film that I wish would get some love but will be denied because it was released in the Spring AND because it was a comedy was Thank You For Smoking. Easily my best picture choice. Aaron Eckhardt was fantastic.
Actor Predictions:
This could be a great year for that category.
As for Streep, I think she will campaign for the Supporting Category. I think every actress in Hollywood is fearin’ Mirren this year.
I just saw this, and I think he should be given a special Academy Award for Not Cracking a Smile.
Isn’t that Academy sort of notorious for nominating only the wimpiest documentaries? So you think Al Gore will really get nominated?
“An Inconvenient Truth” has a 93% Fresh rating at rottentomatoes.com. Obviously, critics generally believe it to be an exceptional documentary. I think it’s almost a lock that Al Gore gets nominated, though I’m not sure he’ll win.
It’s (sadly) very rare that a documentary ever gets a sizable audience. The Academy may often hand out noms for wimpy docs, but in the rare occasion that a documentary gets an audience they tend to default to “give it to the one that everybody saw”.
By the way, I don’t recall if the best documentary Oscar goes to the director or the producer (pretty sure it’s the director), but either way there’s no Oscar for Al Gore.
P.S. I posted my personal (not most likely) Best Picture Noms upthread.
This weekend I saw Bobby, For Your Consideration, and The Pick of Destiny.
My Best Picture Noms have not changed.