Too Early To Ask For OSCAR Predictions?

Cafe Society
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The Handicappers at GoldDerby have these as their current likely predictions for nominations (in order):

Picture
Dreamgirls
The Departed
The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Also in the running: Flags of Our Fathers, Children of Men, Volver, World Trade Center

Actor
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Also in the running: DiCaprio (The Departed), Derek Luke (Catch a Fire), Sasha Baron Cohen (Borat)

Actress
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
Also in the running: Annette Bening (Running with Scissors), Kate Winslet (Little Children), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby), Beyonce Knowles (Dreamgirls)

Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Also in the running: Adam Beach (Flags of Our Fathers), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland), Steve Carrell (Little Miss Sunshine), Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Catherine O’Hara, For Your Consideration
Also in the running: Carmen Maura (Volver), Frances de la Tour (The History Boys), Phyllis Sommerville (Little Children), Rinko Kinkuchi (Babel), Shareeka Epps (Half Nelson), Sharon Stone (Bobby)

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What are the chances of the Oscars ever breaking out the best actor categories into drama and comedy? It is hard enough comparing different dramatic roles, how in the hell is one supposed to compare Borat’s performance with that of Peter O’Toole, for example?

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Also, when pigs fly and hell freezes over and Borat is nominated, do you think he would show up dressed as Borat? How cool would that be to shake up the Oscars?

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Even at his worst, Borat couldn’t be half as bad as when Roberto Benigni accepted his Oscars.

Don’t discount Cohen’s chances, though. The way the balloting for nominations work, as long as you have a narrow but loyal contingency willing to put you in the #1 slot, you’re more likely to get nominated than if you’re on 80% of the ballots, but in the #4 slot. Borat is a phenomenon, but even more importantly (to the industry), it’s a box office hit. Plus, Cohen was also in the #1 (non-animated) comedy of the year.

And the Oscars will never make the Comedy split, primarily because that’s Golden Globe territory, and there’s the danger that it will appear to “water down” the importance of the award (plus I’d bet you, the most deserving comedy performance would never win anyway). They did it in the music category for a few years (because Disney musicals were hijacking the “Original Score” award) and very quickly changed it back. Also, you’d end up with lots of bizarre and dubious campaigning arguing that such-&-such is really a “comedy” so it would be up against less formidable competition.

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Oh gosh this is hard. I see at least one movie a week some times 2 or 3. Is there a list somewhere on the net of what movies were released this year? IMDb has a list but it has 15000 films so I’m looking for something that would just have the 10 movies that are released each week that people actually hear about, but that does include independant films with moderate amount of release such as shortbus and peaceful warrior.

It will probably get a lot of play at the Oscars because it has all this buzz, but I really didn’t think The Departed was anything special. The only interesting acting was by Leonardo and maybe the counselor. The set up was interesting but the payoff was anticlimatic and the elevator scene was somewhat dissapointing. I haven’t seen it yet but from the previews for Blood Diamond look like Leonardo is putting in a good performance so he might get nominated for that instead.

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I’d be surprised if Best Actor wasn’t a two horse race between Ryan Gosling and Forest Whitaker. They were kind of at both ends of the spectrum but both were great, I don’t know how I’d choose between the two. Because Forest’s performance was, for lack of a better word, huge I’d give him the edge. I’d be surprised if someone else matched these performances but there are still a month’s worth of movies, so who knows.

Regarding best actress, I actually thought Meryl Streep was better in “A Prairie Home Companion”. It was a little more subtle than “The Devil Wears Prada” but that’s why I liked it. Helen Mirren, Penelope Cruz, and Kate Winslet were all pretty good as well. Another month, blah blah.

Best Picture is tough for me. The movie that engaged me and gripped me like no other movie this year was Little Children. I just loved this movie and left the theatre in a daze. I’d be disappointed if it wasn’t nominated but not necessarily surprised. I suppose I’ll see the usual suspects like Babel (which I did like), The Departed (which was good but not academy award good), Dreamgirls (haven’t seen it but Loved Moulin Rouge, Hated Chicago, and this one seems more in the Chicago vein).

This should not be the year Scorsese finally wins as I don’t think he did nearly the best job at directing. I’d rather see Todd field or Alejandro Gonzalez Inarrito win but I’m usually a bit surprised here. I wouldn’t be disappointed if Pedro Almodovar or even Chris Nolan got nominated.

I figure I’ll stop there, for now.

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Use the IMDB power search and limit it to films released this year but exclude DVD, TV and releases with less than 2500 reviews. That is how I get the list. Almost any arthouse film will have at least 2500 reviews.

If you are looking for really obscure releases, use 1000 reviews.

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I just tested my own advice and it seems fewer people are voting these days. Try 250 reviews. That should get it done.

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We saw Blood Diamond and The Departed back to back last night, a sneak preview of BD, then a late show of TD. The voters are going to have a hell of a time deciding which one to nominate Leo for. He’s AMAZING in BD, I think it’s my favorite performance he’s given, ever, even though it’s the least-likable character he’s ever played. He’s not afraid to be hated. The character isn’t an out and out bad guy, that would be too easy, but he has no reedeeming qualities until the very very end, and what happens hardly qualifies as “heartwarming” (the trailer gives a very different feeling from what actually happens in the movie…the trailer, which we saw again before The Departed, almost makes it seem like he’s a loveable rogue and he’s not, he’s an amoral mercenary). This is a a Leonardo DiCaprio we’ve barely seen before (a slight dusting in Basketball Diaries perhaps), and he’s fascinating to watch.

Now that I’ve seen the performance I do wish he’d be nominated for Blood Diamond, but will have no problem at all if he gets it for The Departed, which is the better movie. Blood Diamond is a flawed but overall very good movie, but The Departed is, well, Scorsese. Also, the character in TD is likable and sympathetic, which gives it a better chance.

I don’t know about any other nominations for Blood Diamond. Djimon Hounsou is good as always, but he’s let down terribly by the script, and Jennifer Connelly doesn’t have a lot to do (but does it well). I’m not sure it’s a Best Picture picture, and I don’t see the director getting nominated. It was directed well but I’m not betting on a nomination.
I also saw Volver the other day and I’d like to see it get as many nominations as it can possibly get. The Academy loves Pedro so why not? It could win Best Foreign Language film at the least.

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We saw Apocalypto last night and, to my utter surprise and astonishment, I now rank it as my favorite film of the year (so far). It’s stunning and mesmerizing, sad but deeply affecting and moving, violent but in a very logical way. I walked into the theater expecting nothing but to be impressed by the visuals, but came out enthralled and electrified, deeply touched by the lead character and his family, and wanting to see it again immediately.

I had no idea that Gibson had something so amazing in him (I’ve never seen Braveheart or The Patriot and I hated The Passion of the Christ) and I couldn’t begin to convey how impressed I am by this work.

In the Should Be But Won’t Be department, Apocalypto should receive nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Rudy Youngblood), Best Cinematography, Best Makeup, Best Score, and Best Art Direction. To my deep frustration, Gibson was an asshole and shot himself in the foot by his moronic bigoted attitudes/remarks, and the movie probably won’t get one nomination.

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Honorary Academy Awards to Doris Day (82) and Richard Widmark (91).

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Apocalypto should get nominations for costumes and cinematography and maybe art direction and set decoration.

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Not before Ennio Morricone! At 78, he has made twice as many films as Widmark & Day combined, plus he’s been nominated 5 times without ever winning.

I also say Roger Corman deserves the Irving Thalberg, too.

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Good suggestion about Roger Corman. But the problem with Ennio Morricone is that almost all his work has been for European productions. Honorary Academy Awards have traditionally gone to those who have worked primarily in English-language filmmaking, although the honorary award to Polish director Andrzej Wajda a few years ago may signal a shift in that thinking.

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Satyajit Ray, Akira Kurosawa, Michelangelo Antonioni, Federico Fellini and Jean Renoir also received Honorary Oscars for careers predominantly (though not exclusively) in non-English movies. You could also add Sophia Loren to this list, though she did receive a competitive Oscar too.

The bigger challenge for Morricone’s case than being foreign-film heavy is that he’s a film composer. Only one other composer has received an Honorary (“Lifetime Achievement”) Oscar: Alex North, who received 15 nods without ever winning. The big argument in favor, of course, is not only that he’s a genius, but he’s written some of the most iconic film music ever (plus it’s largely believed he was robbed in 1986 for The Mission because the Academy was too dumb to know what was and wasn’t original from the winner, 'Round Midnight; a rule change in the music branch was believed to be a direct result of this loss).

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From my lips to God’s ears! :smiley:

Fantastic!

In other news, here are the finalists for the Visual Effects award:

It’s hard to imagine POTC losing this, which will mean a genuine showdown next year, since Spider-Man 3 and POTC3 will be head-to-head after each of their 2nd installments (but not the 1st) won the Oscar.

Also, here are all the songs eligible for Best Song this year, here are the 15 finalists for Best Documentary feature, here are the films submitted for consideration for the Animated Feature category, and here’s the list of the 61 countries, and their submissions, vying for the Foreign Language Film award.

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I would love it if the kid who played Olive in Little Miss Sunshine were nominated for best supporting actress… she did quite an amazing job. Given the cuteness factor I think she has a chance.

I think the movie will be nominated, but lose to something not as good but more “serious.” The Academy has done a shitty job lately of handing out best picture awards, so I predict it will go to some overrated piece of crap I haven’t seen and will watch later thinking, “THIS won best picture”?

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Peter O’Toole will be nominated and win for Venus.

Even if he is crap. Even if no one but the Academy people and those East/West coaster Artsy Fartsy types see it. He will win.

He’s lost out so many other times and has left such an incredible mark with his talent.

Peter, if you are reading this, you could read the phone book and make it sound lyrical and melodic.

You should have one for Henry the Second in Lion in Winter. ( and Laurence of Arabia and Man of the Year)

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Lawrence. And yeah, he probably should have won for that.

The critics, however, seem to be lionizing Forrest Whitaker, a critic’s favourite, for “The Last King of Scotland,” and that’s a strong indicator.

I’d bet even money Helen Mirren will win Best Actress and that’s the only prediction I’m going to make. The only actress with any chance at all of beating her is Kate Winslet, not because she necessarily deserves to but because they like giving it to young, beautiful actresses instead of veterans, and it’ll be her fifth nomination.

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Just looking at our prognostication skills here.

Right x 4

We’ll see.

Boy, I was wrong here. They completely forgot about this film.

I was too optimistic about Flushed Away.

HA! Silly me.

We’ll see.

Whooo! I’m glad I said that!

I was right about O’Toole and Gosling.

Ah well.

No on SUAS, but yes on the other two.

I only got Costume right.

Yes, but not enough.

It was way more popular than I imagined.

Whooo! Right.

Oh wasn’t I optimistic? Of those it got Cinematography.

It did get nominations in a couple of Artistic categories, but it was Clint’s Letters From Iwo Jima that came out of nowhere and knocked everybody over. Beware of Clint, this is his MO now. Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby also were made and post-productioned with no buzz and then suddenly unleashed at the end of the year, dominating the awards season.

Got all those right.
A quick look at the rest of the thread…

Good for you!

How’s one out of two?

Good for you!

Good call.

Dead on!

!!! Good for you!

Unfortunately, only for Makeup, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. I was with you, but 3 Oscar nominations are better than no Oscar nominations.

Hey, I live in Chicago and I’m as far away from Artsy Fartsy and you can get, and I saw it. He isn’t crap. He deserved his nomination, but Forest Whitaker will win. However, if O’Toole wins, I don’t even think Whitaker will mind. This will probably be O’Toole’s last chance.