2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Cafe Society
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Rules:

  1. The person who correctly picks the most winners wins.

  2. You do not have to pick in every category, but that means you can’t get a point for that. There is no penalty for wrong answers, so guess.

  3. You may change your answers if you like as long as you do so before the Academy Awards commence on Feb. 25, 2007. All ballots are final the moment the ceremony’s host says his first word.

  4. It would be fun if you explained WHY you think some of your chosen winners will be winners.

Here are the nominees, for you to peruse:

BEST PICTURE

Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Babel”
Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
Clint Eastwood, “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears, “The Queen”
Paul Greengrass, “United 93”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Leonardo DiCaprio, “Blood Diamond”
Ryan Gosling, “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole, “Venus”
Will Smith, “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Penelope Cruz, “Volver”
Judi Dench, “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet, “Little Children”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Jackie Earle Haley, “Little Children”
Djimon Hounsou, “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Adriana Barazza, “Babel”
Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal”
Abby Breslin, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel”

BEST SCREENPLAY (Original)

Guillermo Arriaga, “Babel”
Iris Yamashita, “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Michael Arndt, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Guillerno del Toro, “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Peter Morgan, “The Queen”

BEST SCREENPLAY (Adapted)

Cohen et al., “Borat”
Cuaron et al., “Children of Men”
William Monahan, “The Departed”
Field & Perrolta, “Little Children”
Patrick Marber, “Notes on a Scandal”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“After the Wedding" - Denmark
“Days of Glory (Indigènes)” - Algeria
“The Lives of Others” - Germany
“Pan’s Labyrinth” - Mexico
“Water” - Canada

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“Cars”
“Happy Feet”
“Monster House”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

“The Danish Poet”
“Lifted”
“The Little Matchgirl”
“Maestro”
“No Time for Nuts”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Deliver Us From Evil”
“An Inconvenient Truth”
“Iraq in Fragments”
“Jesus Camp”
“My Country, My Country”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“The Blood of Yingzhou District”
“Recycled Life”
“Rehearsing a Dream”
“Two Hands”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

“Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)”
“Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)”
“Helmer & Son”
“The Saviour”
“West Bank Story”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gustavoa Santaolalla, “Babel”
Thomas Newman, “The Good German”
Philip Glass, “Notes on a Scandal”
Javier Navarette, “Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) Javier Navarrete
Alexandre Desplat, “The Queen”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
“Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
“Love You I Do” from “Dreamgirls”
“Our Town” from “Cars”
“Patience” from “Dreamgirls”

BEST ART/SET DESIGN

“Dreamgirls”
“The Good Shepherd”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“The Prestige”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“The Black Dahlia”
“Children of Men”
“The Illusionist”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Prestige”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Curse of the Golden Flower”
“The Devil Wears Prada”
“Dreamgirls”
“Marie Antoinette”
“The Queen”

BEST FILM EDITING

“Babel”
“Blood Diamond”
“Children of Men”
“The Departed”
“United 93”

BEST MAKEUP

“Apocalypto”
“Click”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST SOUND EDITING

“Apocalypto”
“Blood Diamond”
“Flags of Our Fathers”
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

BEST SOUND MIXING

“Apocalypto”
“Blood Diamond”
“Dreamgirls”
“Flags of Our Fathers”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“Poseidon”
“Superman Returns”
Have at it!

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Best Picture: “Babel”

Not because it’s great, but because it juggles multiple storylines the way “Crash” did, and that’s trendy at the moment.

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker.

If I were forced to bet money on ONE category, this is it. This is the one category where I’ll be VERY surprised if I’m wrong.

Best Actress: Helen Mirren.

Partly because she’s a respected veteran who’s never won before, partly because Hollywood has gotten into the habit of rewarding imitations of real-life celebs.

Best Supporting Actor:

Alan Arkin

This is a category in which Hollywood likes to reward older, veteran stars (George Burns, Don Ameche, James Coburn, et al.).

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

Best Director: Martin Scorsese

Best Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine & The Departed

Best Cinematography: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

Editing: Babel

Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth

Costumes: Marie Antoinette

Music: The Good German (Thomas Newman)

Song: “Our Town” from “Cars”

Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth

Sound: Apocalypto

Sound Editing: Apocalypto

Visual Effects: Superman Returns

Animated Feature: Cars

Foreign language: Pan’s Labyrinth

Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

As for the other 3 categories, I have no clue at all, as I’ve never seen or heard of any of them.

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BEST PICTURE

Letters from Iwo Jima. This one was really tough, it was the last category I picked. I absolutely loved the movie, and more importantly, the academy loves Clint Eastwood. I can honestly see any one of four movies taking the prize.

BEST DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood, “Letters from Iwo Jima”. Sorry Mr. Scorsese, not this year. Clint is my boy, and he directed one of the better movies I’ve seen in a very long time.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland” is an absolute Lock.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Helen Mirren, “The Queen” is also a lock but I’d rather see Kate win.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jackie Earle Haley, “Little Children”. I’m just playing a hunch on this one (I also liked the movie).

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”. I hated the movie, but the buzz seems to surround her.

BEST SCREENPLAY (Original)

Guillerno del Toro, “Pan’s Labyrinth” was great.

BEST SCREENPLAY (Adapted)

William Monahan, “The Departed”. The movie has to win one.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Pan’s Labyrinth” - Mexico. Let’s just call it a hunch.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“Monster House” is the only one of the three that I didn’t hate.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

“The Danish Poet”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“An Inconvenient Truth”. I’d rather see Jesus camp win, but there you have it.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“The Blood of Yingzhou District”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

“Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gustavoa Santaolalla, “Babel”. I thought Blood Diamond had a pretty good score, but I guess I’m by myself on this one. Babel was pretty good too though.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”. Did I mention I hated Dreamgirls?

BEST ART/SET DESIGN

“Pan’s Labyrinth”. THis one should be a lock, but we’ll see.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“The Prestige”. I flipped a coin between this and Pan’s, this won.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Marie Antoinette”. Period pieces have a leg up in this category.

BEST FILM EDITING

“The Departed”. I read a book that states how you can’t really say a film has good editing until you see what is on the cutting room floor, but my editor friend really thinks this has a leg up.

BEST MAKEUP

“Pan’s Labyrinth”. As you can see, I’m a fan.

BEST SOUND EDITING

“Letters from Iwo Jima”. It’s a war movie.

BEST SOUND MIXING

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”. I thought it was like a soap opera on a boat, but it WAS technically pretty well done.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”. See above.

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Best Picture: The Departed
Because they won’t give Scorsese a statue but they will honor the film
Best Director: Inarritu
Eastwood won already, Greenglass is a good guess for the sentimentalism and patriotism, but I’m going with the furriner. Babel has won many awards elsewhere.

Best Actor (leading): Peter O’Toole
I know Whitaker has won every major award from here to kingdom come but my feeling is the Academy will honor O’Toole because he is old and has never won. He should have won for Larry of Arabia.

Best Actress (leading): Helen Mirren
No Doubt.

Best Supporting Actor: Mark Wahlberg
He wouldn’t be my choice (Haley would) but the supporting category is flaky. They like to reward young talent, and especially not very famous talent.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson
Duh. Although I love Cate Blanchett. I want to BE Cate Blanchett. I want Cate to win, but I know she won’t.

Best Screenplay (original): Little aMiss Sunshine
I think this will be the only award LMS receives.

Best Screenplay (adapted): Little Children
Because we must keep the “little” theme. Hee.
This is all I am comfortable with. I refuse to guess the best song deal because it’s just wrong to add new songs to a frigging 20 year old established Broadway musical.

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Predictions aren’t my strong suit, but if I did want to predict, I’d wait until after all the Guild awards have been given out. So far only the Producers Guild (they chose Little Miss Sunshine) and the Screen Actors Guild (Hudson, Murphy, Mirren, Whitaker and LMS) have weighed in.

In general, while few Guild members are Academy members, nearly 100% of Academy members in the various tech branches (actors, directors, editors etc) are Guild members, so what the Guilds like can, not always, but can, show what these people are thinking. Anyone following the Guilds was not at all surprised that Little Miss Sunshine was nominated for its Oscars.

I keep a page that has the Guild nominations and winners, though this year it’s been a pain to upkeep. I’m not as motivated this year as in past years, but I will keep it up.

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Oh god I hope you’re right. I love Whitaker, have for years, and I think he’s one of our finest actors who doesn’t get nearly enough good parts, but this is a Supporting role, it’s not Lead, and has no business being in and winning in Lead.

My fear is that the Academy members will not watch their screeners of Venus and so will give it to Whitaker just because it’s the easy thing to do. If monkeys start flying out of my ass and they DO give it to O’Toole, it won’t be because he’s old and has never won, though those are mighty fine reasons if the performance is good enough, it’ll be because he deserves it for THIS performance.

I almost don’t want to watch this year, because of the pain I’ll feel when Scorcese and O’Toole lose.

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Well, I’m a little late in setting this up (the annual contest), but here we go:

We have our own designated group at **Oscar.com**. It’s called Cecil’s Kids and the password is “opal”. There, we can easily track who’s guessing what, and it will tabulate the scores throughout the ceremony and determine a final winner.

I always have a prize, which I haven’t determined yet (it’s always a soundtrack), and the only real “catch” is that you have to sign up to ABC.com. If you want to abstain, that’s fine and we (someone) will tabulate your score separately here in this thread–but that will only be for bragging rights. If you want to win the CD, you must log into the Oscar.com site (it’s free, of course, and I never ever get any spam from them throughout the year).

We’ve always had a healthy turnout and here’s hoping this is no exception; certainly, some of the categories are up-in-the-air enough that it should prove pretty interesting.

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Oh, it appears they don’t have a tie-breaker so we’ll have the following rule: In the case of a tie, the winner is someone who had the most unique correct guesses from everyone in our group.

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I’m in… Thanks for setting this up, Archive Guy. :cool:

One thing about setting up an account: all the “do you want our spam?” checkboxes default to True, so registrants will need to deselect the 5 or 6 kind offers that they make. :wink:

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It was very much a lead role, and it was very much brilliant. Plus it’s socially relevant. He’s a lock. In fact, it’s the only category I’d hazard a guess in. He’s absolutely brilliant.

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Bump.

And can I get a mod to change the title from “Thread” to “Contest”?

Thanks!

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BEST PICTURE : Babel

BEST DIRECTOR : Paul Greengrass, “United 93”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE : Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE : Helen Mirren, “The Queen”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE : Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE : Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal”

BEST SCREENPLAY (Original) : Guillerno del Toro, “Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST SCREENPLAY (Adapted) : William Monahan, “The Departed”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM : “Pan’s Labyrinth” - Mexico

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE : “Happy Feet”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT : “Maestro”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE : “An Inconvenient Truth”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT : “Two Hands”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT : “West Bank Story”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE : Thomas Newman, “The Good German”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG : “Patience” from “Dreamgirls”

BEST ART/SET DESIGN : “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY : “The Illusionist”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN : “Dreamgirls”

BEST FILM EDITING : “United 93”

BEST MAKEUP : “Apocalypto”

BEST SOUND EDITING : “Apocalypto”

BEST SOUND MIXING : “Dreamgirls”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS : “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

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Mine are entered, Archive Guy.