Well, the 91st Academy Awards approach and some major predictors are on the table now: nominations for the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the Golden Globes (GG), and the Critics Choice awards (CC—commonly seen as the most accurate outside of the guilds), plus winners of the New York and Los Angeles film critics (NY, LA) and the National Board of Review (NBR), the only film award body as old as the Oscars themselves.
So here are those nominations and/or winners () cited so far in the key categories
PICTURE
Black Panther – CC, GG, SAG+
BlacKkKlansman – CC, GG, SAG+
Bohemian Rhapsody – GG, SAG+
Crazy Rich Asians – GG, SAG+
The Favourite – CC, GG
First Man – CC
Green Book – CC, GG, NBR
If Beale Street Could Talk – CC, GG
Mary Poppins Returns – CC, GG
Roma – CC, LA*, NY*
A Star Is Born – CC, GG, SAG+
Vice – CC, GG
(+ SAG doesn’t have a “Best Picture” but it does have Best Ensemble, which has some correlation to an eventual Oscar nod for Best Picture)
ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice – CC, GG, SAG
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born – CC, GG, SAG
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate – CC, GG
Ryan Gosling, First Man – CC
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed – CC, LA*, NY*
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased – GG
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody – CC, GG, SAG
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns – GG
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book – CC, GG, NBR*, SAG
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun – GG
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie – GG
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman – GG, SAG
ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma – CC
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns – CC, GG, SAG
Glenn Close, The Wife – CC, GG, SAG
Toni Collette, Hereditary – CC
Olivia Colman, The Favourite – CC, GG, LA*, SAG
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade – GG
Regina Hall, Support the Girls – NY*
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer – GG
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born – CC, GG, NBR*, SAG
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – CC, GG, SAG
Rosamund Pike, A Private War – GG
Charlize Theron, Tully – GG
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians – GG
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Maherhala Ali, Green Book – CC, GG, SAG
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy – CC, GG, SAG
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman – CC, GG, SAG
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born – CC, NBR*, SAG
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – CC, GG, NY*, SAG
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther – CC
Sam Rockwell, Vice – GG
Steven Yeun, Burning – LA*
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice – CC, GG, SAG
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place – SAG
Claire Foy, First Man – CC, GG
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased – CC
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk – CC, GG, LA*, NBR*, NY*
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots – SAG
Emma Stone, The Favourite – CC, GG, SAG
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite – CC, GG, SAG
DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, First Man – CC
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born – CC, GG, NBR*
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma – CC, GG, NY*
Peter Farrelly, Green Book – CC, GG
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace – LA*
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite – CC
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman – CC, GG
Adam McKay, Vice – CC, GG
Some of these major contenders haven’t been released yet (Vice, Beale St., Poppins) and others are/were in limited release, but for these categories, the person taking home the Academy Award in a couple months is listed somewhere here.
As always, please no thread-shitting. Yes, great movies are often ignored and overlooked, and it’s as much about politics and popularity as quality, but every year, some really deserving parties (above or below the line) do get recognized and other terrific films get visibility that people might not have otherwise heard of, so that at least is worth celebrating.
I’ll be updating the thread as additional developments occur (primarily the remaining guild nominations as well as the eventual winners).