The 2019 Road to the Oscars thread

Cafe Society
21

Not Off Topic at all! Netflix has definitely changed the entire landscape of award campaigning. Whereas before, studios were largely interested in box office returns for publicity purposes (knowing that most of their money comes from commercial/home release), the streaming studios know that their real money is in boosting subscriptions, so the emphasis is on the awards circuit (largely festivals) with the brief theatrical release largely a formality to qualify for eligibility. Hence, few theaters in even fewer markets get the films and the window when they’re available to watch is small (followed almost immediately by an “opening” streaming date).

ROMA really set the high-water mark, and the dilemma, of course, is that films like the Cuaron, or TWO POPES, DOLEMITE, and THE IRISHMAN is that those films almost certainly would never have been made at all (or possibly would have but with far greater oversight and fewer resources and less artistic freedom) if it weren’t for these streaming studios in the first place.

So they dedicate their money to the content and the campaign, without worrying about the box office. It’s the long game, for sure, and the more creatives who find work because of this business plan with Netflix, Amazon, Apple, etc., the fewer of them are going to consider it a major factor when it comes to their votes. Because their livelihoods take precedent.

I’m lucky because I live in a major market with a high concentration of Academy members, plus I work for a major film festival (we actually screened a lot of the films we’re discussing, Netflix and otherwise), so I’m grateful to hear how difficult it is to see these films elsewhere, just to get a more balanced perspective. The reality of the logistics sucks, and I’m sorry cinephiles like you suffer. But I think the general assumption is that most people stream (I don’t, fyi) so the number of people who are impacted and inconvenienced is relatively small (an undeniable mindset on their part, regardless of how true it might be). I’m sorry you have to face those kind of challenges just to see something that would have had a regular arthouse run 10 years ago.

22

I’m seeing The Lighthouse tonight or tomorrow, one of my top movies on my “have to see” list for 2019. Can’t wait.

23

Well, the Golden Globes were last night, and while as a prediction agent, they’re so-so (usually from 50-75%, with the benefit of both Drama (D) and Music/Comedy (MC) categories improving the odds), it’s the first real chance to see and hear some of the major contenders and their speeches.

So the winners:

Picture: 1917 (D), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (MC)
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (D), Taron Egerton (MC)
Actress: Renee Zellweger (D), Awkwafina (MC)
Supp. Actor: Brad Pitt
Supp. Actress: Laura Dern
Director: Sam Mendes
Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Foreign Film: Parasite
Animated Feature: Missing Link
Score: Joker
Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” Rocketman

(*GGs don’t separate screenplay into Original and Adapted)

No surprise at all for Pitt, Dern, Foreign, or Elton John. It’s theirs to lose so far.

Phoenix and Zellweger are still the front-runners, but RZ’s speech was limp and uninspired and her final competition will be a choice field for some possible spoilers (think Glenn Close’s status at this time last year). It’s still a toss-up for Picture and even though Marriage Story and The Irishman came home empty-handed last night, they’re still forces to be reckoned with, though 1917 (which came out too late for many of the critics’ groups) got the bump it needed.

The massive surprise was with Animated Feature. The stop-motion genius of LAIKA has been a consistent Oscar nominee for years (Coraline, The BoxTrolls, Kubo and the Two Strings, ParaNorman) and their craftsmanship often defies belief. But their films don’t make a ton of money without the Disney/Pixar marketing machine behind them, so they’ve always been the bridesmaid. But last night, they won! Of course, they were up against nothing but sequels and remakes, but that’s still quite notable (the winners were absolutely stunned) and definitely the kind of visibility they have often sorely needed. Don’t know if it will make a difference in the long run, but since the inception of this category, stop-motion has only won the Oscar once (the Wallace & Gromit feature) and the studio is far overdue.

24

And now the Writers’ Guild of America nominations just came out.

Original Screenplay
1917
Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Usually, these are about 80-90% accurate to the final Oscar slate (because unlike Critics or the Hollywood Foreign Press, there are a number of guild members who are also Academy members).

Usually, the writers guild is more open to genre films, comedies, and smaller indie titles. Because foreign titles are often not written be guild members, those titles are disqualified for WGA but appear once AMPAS weighs in. Here are some recent WGA nominees followed by the film that bumped them by the Academy:

Eighth Grade / The Favourite
A Quiet Place / First Reformed
Black Panther / The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
I, Tonya / Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Loving / The Lobster
Nocturnal Animals / 20th Century Women
Deadpool / Lion
Trainwreck / Inside Out
Sicario / Ex Machina
Steve Jobs / Room
Trumbo / Brooklyn
Of course, the film conspicuously missing from this year’s contenders is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and that’s for one specific reason: QT refuses to be a member of the writer’s guild, so his film isn’t eligible for this award. So whatever wins for Original here will likely be Tarantino’s most dominant competition.

25

Is it just me, or is Roger Deakes the lockiest lock to ever lock for cinematography? I’ve only seen the trailers but ho-lee shit that movie looks beautiful

26

Well, yesterday was a big day, with both the Directors and Producers Guilds weighing in with their nominations. Both have generally proven about 80% reliable in predicting the final Oscar slots.

Directors:
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

While the first 4 have been permanent fixtures in almost every nomination slate or critics prize, Waititi is the wild card, and given that there’s almost always one film that drops out of the DGA slate to be replaced by the Academy, the general assumption is that if there is one, it will be him (with Todd Phillips, Greta Gerwig, or Noah Baumbach the likely beneficiaries).
Producers:**
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
Parasite**

Now, while the PGA always nominate 10, the Oscars (based on the preferential ballot system) have a Best Picture slate that ranges from 8-10, so odds are that their final slate includes all the films listed above, but not all the PGA titles will necessarily carry over.

Also, the BAFTA nominees came out yesterday and while there is always some significant overlap, the prominence of UK talent (and some shifting release dates there) often account for the difference. I won’t list all the nominees, but keeping an eye out for who the winners are is often a good way to feel the pulse of the industry, since there is also some overlap in membership with AMPAS.

The Oscar nominees come out next Monday, 1/13.

27

Yeah, for years Roger Deakins was the legendary DP with a ton of nods but no actual wins. And while he did eventually win for Blade Runner 2049, I think people will be perfectly fine giving him another one for his work in 1917.

After all, they gave Emmanuel Lubezki the Oscar three years in a row, including one for shooting Birdman, which has the same one-single-uninterrupted-shot conceit, except that was in and around a Broadway theater and the Mendes is across No Man’s Land/through burning French towns/deep in WWI trenches. I think RD’s second Oscar is secure and the only award that is more than a lock than his right now is the International Film prize for Parasite.

28

nominees are out . Joker leads with 11

29

First reaction -

I’m sad that Dolemite was shut out. It wouldn’t have surprised me to see Eddie Murphy in the Best Actor group, although I have no quibble with the roster as is. I thought it could have at least gotten a Costuming nod.

30

Nm

31

Well Netflix sure did well in the Oscar noms. The Irishman got 10 nominations, Marriage Story got 6. Both were nominated for Best Picture. Klaus was nominated for Best Animated Feature.

I saw Little Women last night. It was a fantastic film. Sad that Gerwig didn’t get nominated for Best Director.

32

Greatest thing about today is seeing the many, many different Adam Sandler vehicles being bandied about as candidates for his “If I don’t get an Oscar, I’m going back to making really bad movies” threat, reminding all of us that… really… he plays one tune, and that one not very well, most times.

33

We try to check off all the Best Picture nominees before the Oscars. 5 down, 4 to go: Joker, Parasite, Little Women and 1917. Of the ones I’ve seen, Jojo Rabbit is my favorite.

We’ve also seen Bombshell and Two Popes, which ticks off a lot of acting boxes.

Least favorite is probably Irishman, which I felt is overlong and derivative of multiple other Scorcese films.

Also not going to shed a tear for Dolemite, which I thought was pretty awful.

We saw Just Mercy this weekend and I’m a bit surprised that Jamie Foxx didn’t get a nomination. He was very good in a role that’s classic Oscar bait.

34

Other than the shorts (which I will see when they are released this month in their annual screening), and the Documentary, Foreign & Animated films, I have seen everything nominated. This is the first year I have seen all the acting noms and all 9 Best Pictures before the nominations even came out!

35

The final tally breakdown:

11 - Joker
10 - The Irishman, 1917, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
6 - Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story, Parasite
4 - Ford v Ferrari
3 - Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
Personally, I find that the complete shutout of Us, Hustlers, The Farewell, and Dolemite is My Name incredibly depressing given that they were all making serious traction in the various precursors (SAG, BAFTA, Globes, critics).

The fact that they all were predominantly about people of color says a lot about Academy tastes, since representation across the board is seriously lacking in this year’s slate.

This is particularly true because there are four titles that have 10+ nods each, and none of them have a substantial or significant character that’s either a woman or a poc. The closest:

  • Anna Paquin’s teamster daughter, whose disillusionment in her father is an important character point for DeNiro but who has virtually no dialogue in a 3.5 hour film
  • Margot Robbie’s Sharon Tate, who (as it turns out) plays absolutely no part in Rick & Cliff’s final story and whose disappearance would not change the plot points in the slightest.
  • Zazie Beetz’s African-American neighbor who exists in the film far more as a fantasy projection than a real person.
  • A French mother who exists in one isolated scene.

And these are the meatiest roles in a spread that’s paper thin when it comes to diverse representation in those 4 films. Might as well throw in Best Pic nominee Ford v Ferrari in there, too.

But more than depressing, having so many films (some fine, some overrated) with that many nods is that a huge chunk of the category slates feel highly repetitive, with few films given a chance to show the awesome breadth of talent across many disciplines. Costumes for Dolemite, sound mixing for Rocketman, cinematography for A Hidden Life would have created a lot of interesting energy in categories that are mostly variations of the same few titles.

Parasite’s presence across a variety of categories is the best news, but I suspect it will have to be content with International feature and maybe Original Screenplay. sigh

36

I don’t find that depressing at all since I don’t think those were better movies than what was nominated.

I hate this bullshit need to have some kind of “quota” system. Joker, The Irishman, 1917 & OUATIH aren’t somehow unworthy movies because they horror upon horror aren’t stories about women. Joker was about one man’s struggle with mental illness, there were female supporting roles but it’s *his *story. The Irishman is about the mafia and teamsters. OUATIH *has *a main female character, so I have no idea what you’re complaining about there, and 1917 is about fucking WWI trench warfare! Of course someone would complain that a movie about two men in the WWI trenches with literally no other b-plot because it’s one shot, needed female representation.:rolleyes:

37

My point isn’t that we should arbitrarily insert women or people-of-color for quota purposes.

My point is that the Academy (still overwhelmingly male) still gravitates towards films (often mediocre ones) about white men when there are a lot of other more compelling films out there whose voices are usually marginalized.

And I think The Farewell is better than 2/3 of the Picture nominees. No question. Is it as showy or as well-funded or as rich with big stars and bigger production values? No. It’s a movie that’s modest in scale, but rich with emotional depth that the others only pretend to unearth (YMMV, of course).

Jennifer Lopez is certainly as good as ScarJo in Jojo. But one is a self-important (if well-intentioned) picture about the Holocaust and one is a “trifle” about strippers and so we know which one gets more critical cred among the Academy members. Heck, the only actor of color nominated is one playing a historical figure, which I suppose means that so-so characterizations can be handed out to all colors if the subject was important and “prestigious” enough. But Erivo (and Theron and Zellweger, etc.) still pale in comparison to Lupita Nyong’o, who was only in a “horror” film but was stunning in it.

Fast Color was a better movie inspired by comics than Joker was. Dolemite was a far more creative underdog story about taking on an insurmountable challenge than FvF. A Hidden Life is more epic in sweep and has much more to say about war than 1917. AMPAS is always guilty of some fairly blinkered thinking, but this year is more conspicuous than usual.

The need to campaign is a big part of it, which allows small independent films (even ones with great reviews) as the runt at the table. I have no illusions that Big Names are going to win next month (and some will actually deserve it) but this year’s nomination slate shows an overwhelming lack of imagination, IMHO.

38

Whose talking about a quota system as opposed to a seemingly systemic bias against films staring women or people of color?

I mean, it’s not perfect, but compare all those 4 movies RottenTomatoes scores to Joker’s. Us has a 93% (7.95 average rating), Hustlers has 88% (7.3 avg rating), The Farewell has 98% (8.56 avg rating), Dolemite is My Name has 97% (7.98 avg rating).

The Joker has a 69% RT score with an avg rating of 7.27.

It’s even more striking with “Top Critics”. Joker has a 55% RT score among them. Whereas Hustlers has an 85%, US has 92%, The Farewell has 95%, and Dolamite has 95%.

The issue is that you have films starting women or POC that have considerable critical acclaim, but it’s displaced by a movie that… doesn’t.

39

And I say A Hidden Life was a huge bore, Us started out with a great idea but did not know how to follow through. It was also a horror film released in March. Never even heard of Fast Color so there was no chance that was ever seriously in the running. I know you didn’t like Jojo Rabbit but I think it’s easily one of the best of the year. **Joker **was my #2 film behind Midsommar, which got nothing.

I am so sick and tired of people bringing race and gender into this.

40

Off-topic, sorry, but Sharon Tate was the heart and soul of OUATIH. Rick and Cliff’s characters EXIST to give Sharon’s story a happy ending. A fairy-tale ending. A Hollywood ending. Not an ending she got in real life, but an ending Tarantino thought she deserved.

Anyway, I’m thrilled with all the nominations for JoJo Rabbit, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, 1917, Parasite, and even Joker, which I really liked a lot, but mainly because it’s making people on Twitter lose their shit and that’s always fun to watch. I’m team OUATIH/1917/JoJo Rabbit/Parasite, but if Joker wins I would laugh and laugh and laugh.

I’m sad about the nominations that didn’t happen, a lot of my favorite movies and performances didn’t get in, but I’m happy for everyone who did get one. I’ve seen all the nominees in the major categories except for The Two Popes and all of the Documentary nominees. I’ve seen 3 of the 5 Animated nominees (missing Klaus and I Lost My Body), 3 of the 5 International nominees (missing Corpus Christi & Les Misérables, which opens here next week), and only one of the shorts (Hair Love) but I’m hoping to see them all before Feb. 9.

Selected Regals will be doing their Best Picture festival again. From Friday, January 31 and Sunday, February 9 they’ll be showing all the films except the Netflix films multiple times. I did this last year and loved it, even though I’d already seen all the movies. I’ve seen all the movies this year too but I’m a ‘see movies I like/love multiple times’ kind of gal.

The pass is $35.00 which is the same as last year. I have Unlimited this year so it doesn’t matter how much the pass is, I don’t think. I’ll check to make sure. If Unlimited doesn’t cover this festival I’ll just buy a pass. It’ll be worth it for me.

https://www.regmovies.com/promotions/best-picture-film-fest