I keep seeing Michigan show up on these lists since Stabenow announced her retirement. But I just don’t see this seat flipping in 2024. Michigan has proven itself to be a more solidly-blue state than 2016 made us believe, and there just aren’t as many quality statewide Republican candidates as there are Democrats. I mean, any one of the top three statewide office holders (Whitmer, Nessel, Benson) could run and win this seat, and there are several quality Democratic members of Congress (Slotkin, Dingell, Kildee). And then there are a few quality Dems not currently holding elected office (Brenda Lawrence, Andy Levin, Pete Buttigieg, Abdul el Sayed, Rob Davidson). And Dems have some good mayors: Mike Duggan (Detroit), Abdullah Hammoud (Dearborn), Rosalyn Bliss (Grand Rapids).
I think the only decent Republican that could win statewide might be Fred Upton, maybe Peter Meijer, but I don’t see either of them making it through a primary. And that’s the thing: our Republican citizens in Michigan keep throwing up nuttier and nuttier candidates, and these nutbirds can’t win statewide. Until the state GOP can get itself under control, this is likely to remain a likely-blue state.