One way to look at it is that Hogan has nowhere to go but down. Right now, he’s a fairly popular former governor, but as Maryland voters start to focus more on the actual issues that will define the Senate race that “R” after his name will weight him down more and more. Especially in a Presidential election year.
There’s a rich history of “wrong party” Governors who tried to capitalize on their popularity and run for the Senate only to go down in defeat – Laura Lingle, Phil Bredesen, Steve Bullock.
Nitpick: LINDA Lingle
Dang it. Thanks!
Is there a thread about the 2024 Congressional elections?
Thank you!
Glad to help - and a little surprised we didn’t already have one!
Bad news for one of Trump’s most loyal lackeys:
Well, Meijer solved my conflict for me – he’s dropped out of the Republican primary for the Michigan Senate seat.
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks won the Democratic nomination for Senate in Maryland today. She will face former Governor Larry Hogan in the general election. Normally MD would be on no one’s list of competitive Senate elections, but Hogan’s bipartisan popularity as governor could make this race close. At the very least, it will force Democrats to spend some resources here that they’d much rather be spending on the half dozen other endangered seats they’re defending.
I think I’m somewhat encouraged by her win after the massive spending by her opponent, Congressman David Trone. Alsobrooks was trailing in the polls as recently as February and ended up winning by 12 points.
I hope Maryland Dems, many of whom have voted for Hogan as governor, understand the threat posed by a Republican Senate.
I’m sure Alsobrooks will make that very, very clear. Here’s CNN’s coverage: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/14/politics/maryland-senate-race-democratic-primary/index.html
While it’s not too uncommon for a strongly red or blue state to elect an opposite-party Governor, it is much rarer for that person to successfully run for Senate. Examples within the last couple of decades include Steve Bullock in MT, Phil Bredesen in TN and Laura Lingle in HI. All three were popular “wrong” party governors, all three got stomped when they tried to translate their popularity into a Senate race. People just make a different calculation voting for Governor and Senator.
The Senate race still favors the Democrats, but like I said, the problem is that it puts another potentially competitive race on the board that’ll requires some degree of attention and resources from national Dems who’d rather be focused on endangered seats in MT, OH, AZ, MI, WI, PA, and NV, and maybe even playing a little offense in TX and FL.
Technically this post is a coda to the 2022 Senate elections, but I didn’t want to resurrect that thread and create confusion.
Herschel Walker – remember him – apparently ended his Senate race with $5 million in unspent campaign funds. Why he would leave that much money unspent in a very close race is baffling. But what’s hilarious is that he’s refusing to do anything with that money to help Republicans. He could return it to donors, contribute to various campaign committees or help bail out the Georgia GOP from a financial crunch. Instead, he’s pretending that the surplus does not exist. Love it.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/herschel-walker-republicans-unspent-campaign-funds-00160046
Maybe he intends to run again? He’d be a fool to IMHO, but anything’s possible.
Just when you thought he was done – Joe Manchin has changed his party affiliation from Democrat to independent, fueling speculation that he could run as an independent campaign for Senate or Governor in West Virginia.
Larry Hogan posted a “respect the process” tweet earlier and was immediately reminded by the replies of the incredible balancing act required to win over enough moderate Maryland Dems without pissing off the state’s MAGA contingent. Both of which he has to have.
I had breakfast yesterday with a never-Trumper conservative friend who will not only probably vote for him but who also thinks Hogan can win. He waved off the concerns that Hogan will be another Susan Collins and believes that he would oppose Trump at every turn.
The TV ads for WI Senate are almost constant (I live in MN, but get WI TV stations) either by the candidates or from several PACs. It is “have mute button ready” time and there hasn’t been that many ads for President (some, but no where near as many as for Senate)
Brian
“i wouldn’t vote for you even if I could”
The New Jersey primary was today.
On the Democratic side Andy Kim won as predicted.
On the Republican side there were two main candidates. Curtis Bashaw a real estate developer and Christine Serrano-Glasner the mayor of a small affluent town. Surprisingly the real estate developer was not Trump’s choice. Trump’s choice did not win. I don’t know if that means anything to the big picture. The chances of the Republican winning are basically zero.