A University of Houston likely voter poll has Cruz up by only two points over Allred, with 6% undecided. The same poll has Trump over Harris in Texas by 5%, which is half of the lead he had over Biden.
This is obviously just one poll but encouraging! I’ve honestly been a bit vexed by Allred’s campaign – he has been pretty low profile on the campaign trail and seems to have been more focused on raising campaign contributions. It’s a very different approach from Beto, who was everywhere in his campaigns. But, hey, Beto lost and maybe Allred’s approach is the right one.
Not to us, but to most of the country, it’s still pretty early. I can understand why he’s letting the Harris/Walz ticket pull their coattails for him and is focused on maximizing his war chest until after Labor Day. Keep an eye on him then. I’m pretty stoked about Allred!
Allred spoke earlier this evening at the DNC. I thought he did a great job. I was especially glad because it had been reported earlier that he wouldn’t appear at the convention, not wanting Texas voters to realize that he was [gasp] a Democrat!
I’m glad that he seems to be shaking off this kind of thinking (he also gave a full-throated endorsement of Kamala Harris). For years now the Democratic playbook in red and reddish-purple states has been to try to banish any visible connection to the party. This has always been dumb – voters know perfectly well which parties the candidates represent, and the attempt makes them look weaselly. When Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock broke through in Georgia, they did it not by pretending not to be Democrats, but rather by energizing traditional constituencies while making the case to moderate voters for a Democratic agenda.
As a Texan, I’m doing my part for Allred. If only because if Ted Cruz loses, I will laugh harder and longer than I ever have in my life.
For what it’s worth (not much) CNN has updated rankings of Senate seats most likely to flip in November. No big surprises – WV, MT and OH are the top three, but they did move the open seats in AZ and MI ahead of Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen in NV.
Ultimately, it just underlines the enormous lift that Democrats face in holding the Senate, even with the new life that Harris has breathed into Democratic campaigning. Assuming WV is gone (which it 100% is), they have to run the table in the next seven red or purple state races. Certainly not impossible.
Senate polls are starting to come in more steadily now. Some encouraging news out west – a Fox News poll has Democrats Ruben Gallego in AZ and Jacky Rosen in NV with enormous 15-point leads over their opponents (Kari Lake and Sam Brown, respectively). That’s an outlier, but other recent polling has shown both Democrats with smaller but still significant leads.
Meanwhile an Emerson College poll for The Hill has Tammy Baldwin +1 in WI, Bob Casey +4 in PA and Elissa Slotkin +6 in MI.
Like I said from the start of this thread, Democrats had a nigh-impossible task of holding the Senate this cycle given the map they had (and that was before Joe Manchin retired effectively conceding WV). But so far, they’re doing what they need to do in order to give themselves a chance.
There was a LOT of anti-Allred advertising during the Texas-Colorado State game this afternoon. One commercial in particular pressed hard on the claim that Colin Allred thinks you’re a racist if you support the border wall. I didn’t see any pro-Allred/anti-Cruz ads, but the game was effectively over in the 2nd quarter and I only kept half an eye on it after that.
While it’s no fun to see your guy getting attacked with no pushback, the fact that Republicans are swinging hard at him suggests that they’re worried.
A new The Hill/Emerson College poll has Florida Senator Rick Scott in a dead heat with his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The likely voter poll shows Scott ahead 46 percent to 45 percent, well within the survey’s 3-point margin of error.
With Tester looking like he’s in serious trouble in Montana, if he loses, Democrats would need to pick up a seat (and hold the White House) to keep control of the Senate.
The Cook Political Report shifted the Montana Senate race from “toss up” to “lean Republican” as polls show Republican Tim Sheehy leading incumbent Sen. Jon Tester.
It’s looking increasingly likely you could end up with Harris in the White House and a Republican majority in the Senate. With Mitch out as Republican leader (who, say what you will, was extremely effective at managing his caucus), the Senate majority next session could be what the House majority was this session – a dysfunctional mess held hostage to its most extreme members and unable to get it’s shit together for the basic act of governing.
I think the McConnell Republicans are focusing their efforts hard on keeping the Senate and little else. I worry about it more than the presidential race or what will happen in the House. Holding the Senate is arguable more important than holding the presidency.
