2024 US Senate Elections

That comes through with everything he does.

I couldn’t find the clip. Are you sure he was completely frozen, or was he rocking gently and slowly?

Colin Allred raised $30 million in the third quarter, nearly a third more than Ted Cruz did in the same period. Allred has been slowly narrowing the polling gap which currently stands at about 3%. But there’s still a surprisingly large block of undecideds, who could make all the difference.

Man, I want to believe but Texas Democrats have burned me so many times. . .

I hear you, flurb.

Try this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws_7q75gKAQ

That does not seem to be a word?

A UMBC poll taken from Sept. 23-28 has Angela Alsobrooks leading former Governor Larry Hogan 49-38 here in the Maryland Senate race. Hogan was amazingly popular during his two terms as governor and it was pretty worrisome when Mitch McConnell recruited him to run for the Senate.

Hogan has fallen all over himself trying to distance himself from Trump and pinky swore that he would protect reproductive rights. But he needs 25% of Dems to cross over for him and my fellow blues, fortunately, are mostly keeping the big picture in mind.

Alsobrooks is in great shape … but that is a heckuva lot of undecided/third-party respondents this late in the game. Roughly one in eight respondents won’t pull the lever for either Alsobrooks OR Hogan? Not likely.

Another view:

The really dispiriting thing is that – even if Democrats beat this atrocious map this year and hold onto a bare majority in the Senate – they’re pretty close to the limit of seats they can expect to win without a significant political realignment in this country. The only Republican incumbents in Democratic-leaning or swing states are Susan Colins in Maine and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Maybe the two NC seats if you’re ready to call NC a swing state. Whereas Democrats hold both seats in GA, AZ, MI, PA, NV, and the other WI seat. They’ve done an incredible job running the table in swing states recently, but if Republicans can finally put together a couple of good elections they could rapidly build an 8-10 seat majority.

Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows

The latest polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows Republicans leading in key Senate races in Montana, Texas and Florida.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RE4.x75q.v2VwwFD3T5FB&smid=url-share

Control of the Senate appears likely to flip from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall, as one of the nation’s most endangered Democrats, Senator Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger in his bid for re-election, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

In fact, the party’s only hope is to secure a 50-50 split and to have Ms. Harris win the White House, allowing her running mate, Tim Walz, to provide the crucial tiebreaking vote as vice president.

The best opportunity, according to new Times/Siena polling, may be in Texas, which Democrats have long dreamed of flipping but where they have fallen well short in recent years. Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican seeking his third term, leads his Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred, 48 percent to 44 percent, according to a Times/Siena poll in Texas.

A third potentially competitive Republican-held seat has emerged in recent weeks, though the re-election bid of Senator Deb Fischer, Republican of Nebraska, was not included in the polls. Ms. Fischer is running against an independent, Dan Osborn, and Republicans have recently come to her campaign’s aid with advertising.

Crap. If only Texas could oust Ted Cruz. :pray:t3: I’m doing my part, mailed my ballot yesterday.

Today I got a text begging for money for Ted Cruz. No way of knowing if it was legit. I don’t live in Texas.

The people I know in Nebraska are voting for the independent. They are feeling hopeful.

That race is flying under the mainstream media radar. They’re all talking about the Senate races in Pennsylvania, Montana, Wisconsin, Texas and Florida. Let’s hope it makes a November Surprise…

Same with me. Of course, I know only about a dozen people in Nebraska; hopefully you know a lot more!

It’s hard to overstate how much of a disaster it would be if Harris were to win the Presidency and Republicans win a majority in the Senate. Mitch McConnell is stepping down as Republican leader after the election. Say what you will about ol’ Mitch, but he had a clear vision for what was in Republicans’ best political interests. He was a ruthless partisan, but he also worked hard to save Republicans from their own dumbest instincts (e.g. no government shutdowns). And he was particularly adept at getting his fractious caucus to stand behind him on strategy.

The new Republican leader is unlikely to have the same vision and credibility with the caucus. Particularly if it’s a 1-2 seat majority, whoever gets the position (currently the candidates are John Thune, John Cornyn and Rick Scott) will be beholden to the whims and tantrums of the conservative showboats. The Senate could descend into the same sort of disfunction that the House has this session, only the Senate has the added responsibility of needing to confirm the President’s executive and judicial nominations. I’m not hopeful.

True. But a far worse disaster would be Trump winning and Republicans getting a majority in the Senate.

If this happens, Harris needs to hammer the Senate every single day. She has got to make it known to the whole country that nothing is getting done because of them. Starting early she really has to hammer any Republican up for reelection in 2026.

It probably wont make any difference in the 2026 midterms, but what else can she do?

The MAGA types will consider it a feature, not a bug.

The 2026 Senate map can be found here. Maine’s an obvious target for Democrats, maybe NC particularly if Tillis retires. Of course, Republicans will have opportunities for pickups as well in Georgia and Michigan, maybe New Hampshire.

Is there any more recent polling re: Nevada senate? This is the only poll result I’ve seen, ever. Rosen is definitely outspending her opponent, so that’s a good sign (I guess).

I just met Jacky Rosen this week…the first time I’ve ever seen a senator in real life (the benefits of having moved to a small battleground state.) She seems nice. :slight_smile: