FiveThirtyEight’s list of polls for the Nevada Senate race is available here. Almost every recent poll has shown Rosen with a comfortable lead.
It wouldn’t be ideal, but I could live with a President Harris and a very narrow Republican Senate majority that the Democratic minority (filibustering when necessary), and her veto, kept from doing anything spectacularly stupid.
Good luck appointing any judges though
If the filibuster stands in the way of Republicans doing what they want to do next session, it will be discarded. But as @hajario says, the threat of a narrow Republican majority in the Senate isn’t what they’ll do, it’s what they won’t or might not be able to do – confirming executive and judicial branch nominations, passing the federal budget, raising the debt ceiling. Most of the time it frankly doesn’t much matter if Congress is a dysfunctional mess, but there are certain things we need them to be able to get their shit together and act on or we all suffer the consequences.
Cornyn is the likely successor to McConnell. I have the impression he is more in the mold of McConnell and not so much a bomb thrower.
I could of course be wildly incorrect.
I agree that Cornyn (and Thune) are not radical conservative bomb throwers, but with a narrow Republican majority in the Senate they could end up in the same place that Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson have been this session – repeatedly held hostage by the most radical members of their caucus. There are some important differences in how power works in the House versus the Senate – there’s no motion to vacate in the Senate – but the new Majority Leader could find himself stymied on anything he tries to do by a few conservative Senators who withhold their votes unless their demands are met. McConnell was mostly able to navigate this through the credibility he’d built up over decades, but even he was reaching the limits of being able to lead the Republican Caucus which contributed to him stepping down.
I would also add, if it ends up being a 51 R - 49 D split, Murkowski could break ranks with the GOP on cabinet appointments so Walz can cast the tie breaking vote. Maybe even on judicial appointments.
She has seemed fed up with MAGA for a while now.
Murkowki would never get the chance to break ranks, because the Senate Majority Leader decides if and when any nomination actually gets to the floor. That’s why Merrick Garland’s not sitting on the Supreme Court, even though his nomination may well have passed if brought to a vote.
She could leave the party and become an independent. That would possibly keep Schumer as Majority Leader if she chose to caucus with the Democrats. She is 67 years old and won’t have to run again until 2026. She already voted to impeach DJT once so no guarantee she would win.
Ms Murkowski was interviewed by CNN’s Manu Raju on Capitol Hill and said that she wouldn’t be endorsing Mr Trump for president — as most other Republicans on Capitol Hill have already done — in 2024. She further added that she was “independently minded”, and was asked whether that meant she was considering dropping her party affiliation.
“I am navigating my way through some very interesting political times. Let’s just leave it at that,” she responded.
The above is from this article earlier this year.
No guarantee of anything but still an interesting thing to keep in mind.
Sure. Then it’s not a Republican majority Senate, which was the hypothetical.
They need a majority to do that. If it is 51-49, there will be at least one or two GOP nays on that.
He never would have been confirmed.
Maybe, but the GOP Sanity Caucus in the Senate is getting mighty thin. Romney will be gone. I fully expect Susan Collins would do her Hamlet schtick and wring her hands about how ugly politics has gotten, then with a heart full of regret fall into line. At 51-49 they could afford to have one conflicted Republican sit out the vote, since the actual vote would be on a motion to overturn the ruling of the chair to “nuke” the filibuster, which would fail 49-50.
Collins will be almost 74 on election day 2026. It would be very helpful if Maine voters decided to choose a younger candidate in her stead but, alas, voters all too often are content to keep voting for the elders.
That’s not true. Garland had considerable support from both parties for confirmation. That’s why McConnell wouldn’t bring his confirmation to the floor for an up or down vote.
From the article:
First, it prevented the seating of a Democratic president’s choice. Had he been considered, Garland might have pulled a few majority-party members across the aisle. Supreme Court nominees nearly always win at least some votes from the party opposing the president, and Garland had a strong law-and-order history. Had he performed well on TV, voting against him might have been harder — especially for Republicans seeking re-election in competitive states.
Actually, I would be counting on a couple of the less sane members who treasure the Filibuster like it was handed down by Moses.
Ted Cruz and Colin Allred had their one and only debate tonight. Now this is the kind of debate I can get behind – they just ripped into each other nonstop for an hour. Ted Cruz said Allred would mandate drag shows on miliary bases. Allred trolled Cruz for his flight to Cancun during winter storm Uri. I don’t think it’ll move the needle but as a political junkie, I loved it.
Thanks. I didn’t get a chance to watch it myself, and didn’t figure it was worth starting its own thread to discuss so I was hoping one of our 6 - 10 Texans around here would mention it.
Doesn’t sound like we got our “they’re EATING THE DOGS” batshit crazy moment from Cruz that could be a soundbite for the next three weeks, so I suppose we’re gonna be no better in the polls next week than we were last week.
Probably gonna be a bit of suspense and optimism early on Election Night (like when a #15 seed hangs with a #2 seed for the first five minutes of their opening round NCAA game) but unfortunately Cancun Cruz will probably pull away in the end.
mandate drag shows on military bases doesnt cut it for you as crazy enuf?
Internal poll by SurveyUSA. There’s not much more in the article except an image of an Xitter post:
Oh. Nevermind then.