If Kristen Sinema insists on running as an independent, it could well hand the seat to Lake.
Ugh. You are correct and that is even more depressing. Goddamn soullessly ambitious, the both of them. Hell, Lake once supported Kerry and Obama. Much like Trump they aren’t even ideologues - just opportunists.
Or to Gallego. No one likes Sinema right now, but she’s slightly more popular with Republicans than Democrats according to recent polls.
It’s hard to say. But I think if Lake is the nominee it’s a little different calculation. I can’t see Sinema drawing off a substantial number of voters who were with Lake for her last campaign and were well aware of her election denial. Also, the Lake “protest voters” (i.e. those who turn out to vote against her insanity) may be split between Sinema and Gallego.
But who knows?
On the other hand, there may be some Republican voters who think Lake is just a bit too crazy, but would still pick her over Gallego if that was the only alternative. If Sinema is there too, maybe they pick her.
There is recent polling on this: Arizona : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Unfortunately it doesn’t paint a clear picture. The two most recent polls of Gallego/Lake/Sinema are both less than a week old.
National Research (Oct. 7-9): Gallego 33%, Lake 37%, Sinema 19%
Public Policy Polling (Oct. 6-7): Gallego 41%, Lake 36%, Sinema 15%
Well they do agree that Sinema is a distant 3rd.
Third quarter fundraising reports are in, and things are looking cautiously optimistic for Democratic Senate candidates. Data for some of the more competitive races below. First is what they raised during the most recent quarter and then what they cumulatively have “on hand”:
Arizona
Sinema (I): raised $826,000, $10.8 million cash on hand.
Gallego (D): raised $3.1 million, $5 million cash on hand.
Lamb (R): raised $475,000, $307,000 cash on hand.
(Kari Lake only just announced and was not required to file a campaign finance report.)
Michigan
Slotkin (D) raised $3 million, $5.2 million cash on hand.
Harper (D) raised $1 million, $418,000 cash on hand.
Rogers (R) raised $824,000, $794,000 cash on hand.
Montana:
Tester (D) raised $5 million, $13 million cash on hand.
Sheehy (R) raised $2.9 million, $1.1 million cash on hand.
Nevada:
Rosen (D) raised $2.7 million, $8.8 million cash on hand.
Brown (R) raised $1.2 million, $938,000 cash on hand.
Ohio:
Brown (D) raised $5.8 million, $11.2 million cash on hand.
Dolan (R) raised $4.1 million, $6.7 million cash on hand.
Moreno (R) raised $4.2 million, $5 million cash on hand.
LaRose (R) raised $1 million, $869,000 cash on hand.
West Virginia:
Manchin (D) raised $715,000, $11.3 million cash on hand.
Justice (R) raised $613,000, $1.2 million cash on hand.
Mooney (R) raised $314,000, $1.6 million cash on hand.
I wonder how many campaigns the California cash bonfire could fund…
Former Rep. Peter Meijer has announced that he’s running in the Republican primary for the open Senate seat in Michigan. Meijer was one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and was subsequently defeated in his next primary by a frothing election denier (who in turn lost the district to the Democrats in the general). It’s hard to believe he’s become more popular with Republican voters since then, but with a crowded primary field and lots of money (his family owns the Meijer supermarket chain) it’s not impossible that he could eek out a plurality win in the primary.
Which leaves me conflicted. Meijer is the kind of Republican I would love to see have success. In addition to impeaching Trump, he voted in favor of creating a January 6 Commission and to hold Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress. During his term, he was undoubtedly Republican but always willing to work on a bipartisan basis. We need more Republicans like him.
But putting Meijer in the Senate almost certainly makes Mitch McConnell Majority Leader. And it’s McConnell who will decide what bills and nominations are allowed to come to the floor and under what conditions. Meijer could become another Collins – lamenting the lack of bipartisanship in the chamber but contributing to it just by the “R” after his name.
With 24 Dem seats up vs only 10 Pub seats up, I think Majority Leader McConnell is a foregone conclusion.
Eh, I blow hot and cold. As I said at the top of this thread, there are many more opportunities for Republican pickups than Democratic pickups. Democrats would have to run the table, but there’s a path. Maybe not if Biden keeps polling like he is, though.
He cannot win in today’s Trump-dominated party. And the Michigan GOP is a complete mess.
If he sneaks through with a plurality in the primary he will get destroyed in the general as Trump voters refuse to vote for him.
I basically agree with this quote from the article:
I was looking at a table, maybe wikipedia, and there were some blue senators in red states but no red senators in blue states. We’re probably going to see 54/55 Republican Senators.
We could see that, but ‘probably’ is overstating it.
If the Republicans hold all the seats they already have, and flip every seat that’s up in this cycle in a Trump won state, they get to 52. To get 54 or 54 they have to flip multiple Biden states. This is certainly possible but it would be foolish to call it probable.
Meh.
Manchin is the only D I see as a definite flip to R. After the election results today I think Tester (MT) and Brown (OH) have better chances at holding their seats than most pundits expect.
I fervently hope you’re right.
Manchin isn’t running:
Then that’s a flip to (R-WV)
Already baked in the cake. Pretty much no one thought that that seat could be held.
Looks like that includes Joe Manchin.