But yeah, to address your actual #8 point, “I got mine, screw the little people” is never far from thought #1 with these clowns.
I’m not sure there’s much of a thought out plan, or not just one plan. All the above points are probably true to different degrees to different parts of the administration. I’m hesitant to assume overwhelming malice when overwhelming incompetence combined with just a bit of malice is more likely. I wouldn’t discount the idea that some significant fraction of them think money for NOAA is simply wasted and somehow things will continue merrily as before. Maybe even better.
And lest we forget, they’re led by somebody who famously Sharpie’d a projected Hurricane track and declared that if we didn’t test for COVID the numbers wouldn’t go up. There’s evidence of a bit of a belief that reality will bend to one’s will should it simply be strong enough.
Indeed so; the Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc., all rely on NOAA/NWS data and models, though they may tweak their forecasts a bit, based on their own meteorologists’ opinions, as well as (I suspect) just to make it seem like they are “adding value.”
If NWS were to cease to exist, and their forecast models were to go away, the private companies could likely rely on other models – such as the “European model” (the ECMWF). However, as the NWS also collects a ton of current weather data across the U.S. (surface observations, weather balloon observations, etc.), which are the input for both the NWS and other models, if the collection of that data were to be degraded*, that’ll impact the accuracy of all the models.
And, of course, it’s the NWS (and NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center) which are responsible for issuing weather advisories and warnings, which are vital for the safety of people and property. If those get degraded, we are all in for a world of hurt.
*- This appears to already be happening, as staffing and budget cuts at local NWS offices has been reducing their ability to collect and report data.
Hurricane forecasts are already impacted. The number of daily weather balloon launches reaching the upper atmosphere has already been drastically reduced.
This has already had an effect on basic weather prediction (including wind/rain) but when, not if, a tropical system hits the US, it expands the cone of uncertainty several miles, even within a few hours of landfall. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, it dramatically affects emergency response and planning.
Also, and this is probably more a case of bad timing than deliberate cut, there’s a key DoD satellite that’s reached end of life. It’s been granted an extension to the end of the month but scientists are trying to get that extended through hurricane season. It measures in the microwave, so it can see through the clouds to get a better idea of what’s happening inside hurricanes, increasing our understanding of what is going on with any given storm.
There is a replacement satellite but although NOAA hopes they will get data from it just as they the previous, the DoD has announced it has no plans to share that data.
Just all around, as we head into the heart of hurricane season, our ability to even figure out the current state of storms, much less project their paths, has already been compromised. And most people will cluelessly think nothing has changed until it is too late, i.e. a storm has formed and they no longer get the same accuracy in storm tracking they did one year ago.
Here’s more on the topic of presidential vandalism directed at the NOAA budget:
Well it’s been a slow year so far for actual storms that hit land. The central Atlantic seems to have warmed up not as much as the past few years. The Gulf of Mexico and even the east coast have warmed up right on time, though, and have been periodically threatening storms to generate in place instead of being imported from Africa. Perhaps this is what was meant by having more production in-country.
But now we have Erin off the coast of Africa. If it goes to the southern end of its expected trajectory, it could possibly hit the US before it drifts north but we will see.
Trump still has his hurricane trajectory altering Sharpie so there’s nothing to worry about!
Erin forecast to head towards Florida, staying north of the Caribbean islands, but extended models forecast a turn towards Bermuda before she gets there.
Florida looks like it’s on the extreme edge of possiblities but the rest of the US seems possible as well. Downside though is that it doesn’t look like it will slow down unless it hits unexpected shear or gets into the colder waters beyond Cape Hatteras. If America is lucky this time, it will indeed jog up toward Bermuda instead.
But, luckily, extremely doubtful it will hit the U.S.
Yeah. With luck it’ll piss off a lot of fish & divert a couple dozen ships and that’s about it.
An Erin boresighted on Miami, Jacksonville, or Charleston would not be funny.
I will be closing on my late mother’s condo this upcoming Friday at said bolded location. To have a ‘cane take it out before we can make it final would most definitely have NOT been funny. Note I’ve been trying to get my (semi-disabled) sister (who nonetheless has had tons of help there) to do so for 2 years now, since I sold my folks’ old house here, precisely because I didn’t want to lose it all to such an event. We have another shared property (landlords) in town, but she wants to hang onto that, for now.
Erin after action report from coastal Palm Beach County FL:
On Tue 8/19 we had ~2-3 foot surf, some whitecaps, and 10-15mph winds out of the northeast then north. The ocean was a bunch rougher than the local winds indicated; clearly it’d been stirred up elsewhere then the waves had propagated to here. It was an otherwise sunny day with the usual puffies and inland afternoon showers
Today, Wed, the Atlantic is back to smooth with 6-12 inch surf and nil winds.
So a comprehensive miss. Good thing too; it’s not very nice near the center of Erin.
So a few days ago we (upper Western South Carolina, Western North Carolina) were bracing for projected more disastrous conditions from Humberto in the area hit by Helene almost exactly a year earlier. But then Imelda came along and is projected to grab Humerto and hurl him off back towards the ocean in a Fujiwhara effect. Wild.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BFDecYNH2/?mibextid=xfxF2i
It looks like Melissa is shaping up to be a national-scale disaster for Jamaica over the next 2-4 days. And perhaps pretty bad for eastern Cuba too.
Not much chance of the USA getting hit by Melissa, but here in SoFL we may get some of the far peripheral ordinary rain and clouds.
See also dedicated thread here: