I sure hope nobody here is in the path, and if you are, you can get out or find shelter.
Many models are predicting that this will be worse for Jamaica than Maria was for Puerto Rico a few years ago. Hispaniola and Cuba will probably get hit hard, too, if they haven’t already.
Here’s a reliable link.
This blogger is a good resource for non-sensationalized professional coverage:
This one too:
Note this second blogger’s post is from midday Fri, so now nearly 48 hours old while the first blogger’s latest post is now only about 12 hours old.
And note:
Trump was planning to move up to 30,000 illegal immigrants there but because of lawsuits there may be only 500-600 or so there–who are at risk because of the hurricane.
I did see that the three main Caribbean island have some surprisingly high mountain peaks. Those can reduce the strength of a hurricane, slightly at the least (and unfortunately lead to a lot of potential landslides).
Mountains also wring out a lot of water. In the form of amazing rain rates. The hurricane that emerges on the other side of a mountainous island will have been damaged by the high terrain.
But along the way it’ll have done its best to simply wash the mountains down into the sea.
The very flat Turks and Caicos will be the beneficiaries of mountainous Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba absorbing all that.
I see that T&C’s highest point is 161 feet.
Most of Turks and Caicos is less than 20 feet. They are very close to nothing but coral atolls and sandbars.
There’s enough distance, and oceanic heat, for however raggedy Melissa looks emerging from Cuba, it’ll mostly have its shit back together by the time the core approaches T&C.
I have lived in Jamaica, a few decades ago. I don’t imagine the housing situation has improved since then. If indeed this hurricane hits the south coast as a Cat 5, there are going to be hundreds of deaths. There is literally NOwhere for most people to go to avoid this. The flooding is going to be insane, with predictions of over 31 inches in the east part of the island.
The coral reefs around Jamaica were already pretty devastated. After this there will be nothing left, and little prospect for recovery.