I sure hope nobody here is in the path, and if you are, you can get out or find shelter.
Many models are predicting that this will be worse for Jamaica than Maria was for Puerto Rico a few years ago. Hispaniola and Cuba will probably get hit hard, too, if they haven’t already.
Here’s a reliable link.
This blogger is a good resource for non-sensationalized professional coverage:
This one too:
Note this second blogger’s post is from midday Fri, so now nearly 48 hours old while the first blogger’s latest post is now only about 12 hours old.
And note:
Trump was planning to move up to 30,000 illegal immigrants there but because of lawsuits there may be only 500-600 or so there–who are at risk because of the hurricane.
I did see that the three main Caribbean island have some surprisingly high mountain peaks. Those can reduce the strength of a hurricane, slightly at the least (and unfortunately lead to a lot of potential landslides).
Mountains also wring out a lot of water. In the form of amazing rain rates. The hurricane that emerges on the other side of a mountainous island will have been damaged by the high terrain.
But along the way it’ll have done its best to simply wash the mountains down into the sea.
The very flat Turks and Caicos will be the beneficiaries of mountainous Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba absorbing all that.
I see that T&C’s highest point is 161 feet.
Most of Turks and Caicos is less than 20 feet. They are very close to nothing but coral atolls and sandbars.
There’s enough distance, and oceanic heat, for however raggedy Melissa looks emerging from Cuba, it’ll mostly have its shit back together by the time the core approaches T&C.
I have lived in Jamaica, a few decades ago. I don’t imagine the housing situation has improved since then. If indeed this hurricane hits the south coast as a Cat 5, there are going to be hundreds of deaths. There is literally NOwhere for most people to go to avoid this. The flooding is going to be insane, with predictions of over 31 inches in the east part of the island.
The coral reefs around Jamaica were already pretty devastated. After this there will be nothing left, and little prospect for recovery.
Having the capital city and its airport and a major powerplant and oil refinery all right in the path within mere inches of the ocean won’t make managing the recovery much easier either.
This will probably be a real horror story.
Isn’t the Guantanamo (Cuba) area right in its path? I haven’t heard about any evacuations from there (US-leased military area on Cuban territory).
How can this happen in the last week of October?! Hurricane strength is very dependent on the temperature of the water over which it is traversing. Is the gulf still that hot?!
They’ve been evacuating “non essential” personel for a couple days now. It’s not exactly front page news, but is easy to confirm news.
Yes.
Current surface water temperatures in the Gulf are in the 80s off some parts of Texas and Florida, and as high as 86F off parts of Mexico. October is still considered “hot” on average, remains “warm” through December, and doesn’t turn “cool” until January. The hottest month on average is August.
It was pretty much exactly this time of year when Hurricane Sandy hit the northeast as a Category 4/3.
Take a look at post #3 in this very thread.
Sorry - must have missed it my first time through this thread.
I was looking at some topographic maps of the major Caribbean island, and just learned that the Dominican Republic has a large lake whose SURFACE is 44 meters BELOW SEA LEVEL. There are small towns around its coast, too.
It takes a while for the ocean to heat up in the spring and summer, and it takes a long time to cool off in the autumn.
And in the meantime, two 6-ish earthquakes happened earlier today in the region.