Time once again for our annual US hurricane tracking and discussion thread.
Today is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season. The Pacific season officially started on May 15, but the Central Pacific subsection which includes Hawaii also begins today.
And some changes to the info we’ll be able access: 2026 NHC New Products and Services. There’s rather a lot that’s new and different you can read about there, plus a whole raft of useful urls you might want.
Last of all the home page at National Hurricane Center - NOAA which will update at least every day with the current threat maps.
As of today, June 1st, the eastern Pacific has two areas of interest well offshore of Central America and aimed more or less in the general direction of Hawaii a couple thousand miles away. All else is quiet.
I’m very much behind on my prep this year. I still have to go through my supplies and filter out things that expired, and restock. I also need to pull the generator out and run it - that’s critical because you can’t count on last minute repairs. It runs on propane so at least I’m not worried about gummed up fuel lines. It should be fine, but I need to make sure.
Tropical Storm Arthur is the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season
Arthur’s maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, which puts it above the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm. The storm is not expected to strengthen significantly, but forecasters warn of dangerous flash floods and urban flooding. Arthur is moving northeast and is expected to move inland over southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night.
“Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday” along a large part of the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center said in its advisory.
Yeah, it got over the hump. It was questionable until the last minute if it the windspeed would get high enough to become Arthur.
Been a bit rainy off and on the last few days in the Houston area. More rain near the coast and there’s been localized flooding and higher than normal tides but that’s about it. Sun’s already out. First time in nearly a week, so that feels a bit odd.
Lots more rain to come for Louisiana into Alabama including localized flooding but that was going to happen regardless of the official classification as a tropical storm or not.
And here a month later the fat lady is once again warming up with her eyes set on the north part of the Gulf of Mexico where it abuts the US deep South.
So far, the forecast of a below average season has been pretty good. But that doesn’t mean no activity whatsoever.
TS Edouard is forecast to make landfall sometime in the next couple hours, most likely within 10 miles of the Sabine Pass between Texas and Louisiana.
Sustained winds are currently about 50 mph and there’s limited time over water for that to strengthen and the storm is compact enough that those winds will quickly die down not long after landfall.
The biggest impacts are expected to be rain, with ~3-6 inches (more possible locally) falling in a band east of Houston. Local street flooding is a concern but fortunately, the storm is a fast mover and water shouldn’t be a major issue with this one. The storm should largely dissipate late tomorrow or early Thursday as it reaches northern Texas.
Over here, west of town, we might get a half inch or so. To be honest, we wouldn’t have minded if it had made its way a bit further west. The area hasn’t had significant rain in a while and outlying areas have fallen into a bit of a drought. On the plus side, after a few weeks in the upper 90s into the 100s, the cloud cover has put a damper on the temperature and that will continue through tomorrow.
So, a new record is being set for how late in the year the first hurricane forms:
A new hurricane season record will be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic.
To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average - and there’s no sign of development in the near future.
It means a new record will be be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming.
Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013.
I am sure I am not the only one who is getting anxious about El Niño and the ocean temperature data?
What is especially concerning to scientists is that the oceans are already so hot when the natural El Niño weather phenomenon is still some way off its expected peak.
This could see ocean temperatures climb yet further.
“The fact that we are already breaking records is an early indicator of how strong the El Niño is becoming,” said Dr Jeremy Grist, senior research fellow at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.
It happens I’m in the Galápagos right now. Water temps around the islands are 10F above normal. Great for human swimming but …
The naturalists on our expedition tell us that last time a long lasting severe El Niño hit the islands in '97-'98, something like 80% of the population of many land & sea species were killed. Primary production of phytoplankton collapses then the entire food pyramid above it all the way to apex land, sea, & sky predators mostly starve to death.
Recovery takes 5-15 years for lower species and some of the slower reproducing species are still a tiny population compared to pre-1997 almost 30 years later.
Nobody wants to think about a scenario where super El Niños become common or worse yet, the new full-time normal.
Hurricane Polo has suddenly formed in the Pacific, going from a storm to a category 5 hurricane in just 2 days.
According to the NHC website, it is far enough from land that it is not expected to reach the shore immediately. But I don’t know how accurate the NHC predictions are for such a quickly growing storm.
I do see however that the water temperature drops below 26C somewhere off of Baja, so if it does make it that far without turning toward land, then I’d guess the US wouldn’t get hit hard with a big hurricane.
But it’s expected to still be a major hurricane by the time it gets near the tip of Baja. It’s just that that’s where the prediction cone ends. I’m not sure if they’re expecting it to turn landward or keep brushing the coast until it hits cool waters.
It’s looking like this may end up being the strongest El Niño on record. And if past El Niño events are any guide, next summer is going to be an absolute scorcher across the southern US.
I was just down in the Galápagos. They are expecting mass die-offs from the severity of this El Niño. The whole food chain collapses and lotta critters all up & down the chain starve.
Takes decades to recover from that. The last super El Niño was 1997-1998 = ~30 years ago. Many populations are still fractions of what they were in 1996.
Thanks to AGW good bet the next super El Niño comes around sooner than 30 years.
Last one was only a couple years ago. The last several dating back to that '97 one have also all been followed the next year as being the hottest year on record. Climate change deniers were using '98 as a benchmark for years to ‘prove’ it wasn’t happening by using a local maximum. Until it was surpassed after the next one.
Also associated with drought and planting delays across a fair chunk of Asia, so food security may become an issue as well.
A meme popping up on social media notes the lack of Atlantic hurricanes this late in the season, and claims that mass media is ignoring or suppressing the story, apparently because it doesn’t fit their climate change agenda.
Of course, all the major news outlets - ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, PBS and various other well-known sources have run stories and commented on the lack of hurricanes and reasons for it.
Deniers have come up with one of the dumbest and most obviously false conspiracy theories of the year.
It’s real rare for the Pacific coast of the US to eat a hurricane. Not never, but nearly never.
Now what does happen regularly is the US, both southern CA & AZ, get significant rainfall from the decaying remnants of former hurricanes & tropical storms.
It’s central Baja California in Mexico which will bear the brunt of any landfall with significant windspeed.