Meh, I figured it out, anyway; SA lives in Oklahoma City. It’s the only city that fits; it had over 50 murders last year, has seen a huge percentage upswing in murders this year, and it also fits descriptions of his hometown he’s given in past posts and references he uses - SA uses OKC as a reference point and speaks of news coming out of Oklahoma. The only problem, of course, is that Oklahoma isn’t “Midwestern.” It’s really a southern, Bible-belt state, but it seems to fit the available evidence better than any Midwestern city.
And yes, OKC has seen a huge upswing in murders in 2012, by almost 60%. So that part of the claim appears to be true. Took a couple of tries, but he got it right the second time, sort of, aside from claiming Oklahoma is Midwestern.
Of course, are things in OKC generally worse than they used to be? Nope. In fact, even at 2012 levels, the murder rate in OKC is lower than it was before the downturn in crime rates that began in the early 90s. The key thing is that OKC has grown really, really fast; it is 40% bigger than it was twenty years ago. It’s one of the fastest-growing large cities in America. So in fact the murder rate has gradually sloped DOWNWARDS; even having a bad year in 2012, it will be significantly lower than it was twenty years ago. However, it’s higher than it was in the years prior to the fiscal collapse.