538 puts up Presidential election forecast

Nate has a long postexplaining how the forecast is constructed (basically it uses polling data and economics indicators to run simulations)and there is a long side-bar with the detailed state-by-state breakdown from the forecast.

I expect this will be the best resource about the state of the race right till the end so I thought it was worth starting a thread. Nothing too surprising about the current forecast; it’s a close race with a smallish edge for Obama. I find it mildly interesting that the forecast gives Obama a slightly higher chance of winning Virginia than Colorado. I don’t think the quality and frequency of the state-level polls is high enough as of now to take these numbers too seriously but they will undoubtedly improve as the race heats up.

Anyone know if visiting the site–fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com–counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers?

It is.

Crap. That pretty much downgrades 538 discussion-wise. Plenty of people will likely still post and start conversations, but it won’t be the same as when there was free access.

It does not count.

Okay, so here’s what we’re going to do. You and Shalmanese go over there and battle it out, while I run away from a hatchet-wielding Lantern for knocking his thread off course.

I’m a non-paying subscriber and I read 538 daily, sometimes clicking over to there multiple times a day looking for updates. I’ve never had to register or log-in to do so.

I just opened up a lot of posts on 538, and I eventually got the paywall message.

If I understand the paywall correctly, access to the main page of NYT blogs is free and unlimited, but if you click on a comment thread or a cut, it counts as viewing an article.

Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like “Obama will win New York” and “Romney will win Utah”, but it’s too early to say “Obama’s got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data”.

I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. He is dead to me.

I don’t pay any real attention to this stuff until after Labor Day.

Enjoy your summer, folks!

I don’t think that’s drinking any kind of Flavor-Aid. He’s an employee of the NYT now and as such, he’s required to follow their editorial guidelines.

And I guess I was wrong about 538 counting against your limit. I’ve just never personally had a problem with it but apparently I don’t open enough articles or read much else on the NYT site.

I don’t get it. What exactly are you accusing him of?

Selling out, man. He’s no longer “authentic”!

Fuckin’ A. Fight the power!

The selling out would be becoming or remaining a NYT employee, I assume. Not that I understand the ire: being required to add a couple letters in front of a name is not something I would consider a moral issue.

If it weren’t a joke, that is.

Yep. This summer is going to consist of people talking while they wait for something to say.

Bob Ducca, Absolute, and BigT? That whoosh has turned into a freakin’ AIR SHOW!

They should be formally referred to by their public honorifics: President Obama and Douchebag Romney.