Nate has a long postexplaining how the forecast is constructed (basically it uses polling data and economics indicators to run simulations)and there is a long side-bar with the detailed state-by-state breakdown from the forecast.
I expect this will be the best resource about the state of the race right till the end so I thought it was worth starting a thread. Nothing too surprising about the current forecast; it’s a close race with a smallish edge for Obama. I find it mildly interesting that the forecast gives Obama a slightly higher chance of winning Virginia than Colorado. I don’t think the quality and frequency of the state-level polls is high enough as of now to take these numbers too seriously but they will undoubtedly improve as the race heats up.