I made this post a few weeks ago.

so hear me out. my understanding is predictions have trump at about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. that’s about the odds he had in 2016. But several voter demographic groups have reduced support for him. college educated men and women. I think trump is doing about 20 points worse with this group than he was in 2016. with the educated women I think they went from preferring the Democrat by 7 points in 2016 to nearly a 25 point margin. college educated men went from supporting trump by 13 points …
In the last 4 years roughly 15 million kids turned 18, while about 11 million Americans died. The vast majority of those Americans who died were silent generation.
So I’m guessing about ~10 million of that 11 million who died were senior citizens.