And apparently they were all vaccinated. 6 of the 7 are asymptomatic, but this is still concerning. While not confirmed, it is believed that they all took the J&J version. Others, including some players, are still awaiting results. The Yankees’ traveling party includes about 50 people, so 7 seems to be very high for a fully vaccinated sample.
But when a cluster of cases occur like this, it’s not really concerning with regard to the statistics of breakthrough - it’s more likely that they were all vaccinated with the same bad batch of vaccine (storage error, production error).
Unless there were reason to believe that they were all exposed to a mutant strain against which this vaccine is ineffective. Probably their samples get sequenced so we’ll find out.
That was my first thought. That percentage of positives is closer to what I might expect for a completely unvaccinated group.
Two points:
- Clusters of disease happen, for various reasons.
- According to the official figures, the J&J vaccine is nearly the least effective of them all.
It looks like they were all vaccinated with the J&J version on April 8th, and set to loosen restrictions on April 22.
I’m actually surprised that this isn’t being viewed as a big deal. Are there other examples of such a high percentage of positives in a mostly fully vaccinated group?
Because when they were all vaccinated at the same time, the most likely explanation is just a bad batch of vaccine. Surely it would be far more worrying if substantial numbers of vaccinated people without this connection were getting sick?
True, and my fear is that it is a harbinger of things to come. The Rudy Gobert positive in March 2020 certainly was.
It’s my opinion, that with enough data and the same criteria, the J&J, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines all would show to have very similar effectiveness for both one and two doses. They just happened to choose the particular methodologies for their trials and we ended up where we are. And I don’t think that necessarily is a bad thing. For healthy individuals, without preexisting comorbidities the J&J is a good choice. However, there is a higher chance to become infected but with a much lower incidence of serious disease. People who are higher risk or have a lower risk tolerance are probably better off with one of the versions where two doses are recommended.
It’s possible that this was a bad batch, but I’d bet it was just a statistical inevitability. Every once in a while, snake eyes will come up three times in a row, with a large enough sample size. This one just happened with a group that is highly visible.
Now a player, Gleybor Torres, has tested positive. I was just watching The Michael Kay show and they just brought up a good point. At this point, all 8 Yankees are asymptomatic. They just get tested daily as a part of MLB protocol, or else none of them would have bothered getting tested. Even the one coach who had some symptoms would have assumed allergies or something (particularly since he wouldn’t assume COVID due to his being vaccinated). So perhaps the spread is far more rampant, but the effectiveness of all of the vaccines on the severity of the disease allows it to spread inconspicuously.
Fully vaccinated Bill Maher tests positive and is asymptomatic.
But we have extensive research data on this. The J&J vaccine trials did look at rates of asymptomatic infection, and found 74% efficacy.
The initial mRNA vaccine trials monitored only symptomatic disease. But from subsequent studies we do now have extensive and reliable data showing that these vaccines are also highly effective at preventing any infection, including asymptomatic infection, for example:
Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status
I’m still puzzled that you find a cluster like this from people who were vaccinated from the same batch worrying. It seems far more likely that the explanation here was a bad batch of vaccine, not that extensive research data with thousands of participants was all somehow wrong.
Again, my caveat here would be if these people had all somehow been exposed to a variant strain, but I see no indication from the story that anyone suspects this.
I presume the Yankees “squad” (or whatever you call it - players & coaches & support staff) is a fairly large number of people, say of the order of 100 people? The other possible explanation is that they all participated in some superspreader event - big indoor party or something. Had they been unvaccinated, most of the 100 of the people at the event would now be infected. And the 7 or 8 infections that we’re seeing just represents the expected efficacy of the vaccine in preventing asymptomic infection.
My first thought wasn’t actually a bad batch of vaccine, but a bad batch of tests. Which would certainly explain why they’re all asymptomatic.
Their manager, Aaron Boone, said today that he thinks that they all contracted it during a long rain delay last Saturday. Well, all except for the one who was already infected. They were in a relatively small space for a couple of hours while waiting for the rain to pass.
I don’t think any super spreader event, even during the peaks when no one was vaccinated, resulted in more than 50% of the participants popping up positive. 8 out of 50 is 16%, which is not much lower than the super spreader events that were so publicized. Numerous other sports clubs across a variety of sports, and around the world, we’re hit by COVID and I don’t remember hearing that any had more than a handful of positives. I think maybe one hockey team had double digit infections.
As far as the idea that the batch of the J&J vaccine was bad, which I agree is a definite possibility, the counter argument is that there are almost no symptoms among the 8 (with 7 of them completely asymptomatic), so the vaccine may be working in terms of reducing the severity. I will say that I personally feel fortunate that I received the Moderna version.
I’m not really following you here. There were definitely severe superspreader events where half of the attendees were infected. See here:
So if the “squad” is about 100 people, around 50 could have been infected at a superspreader if unvaccinated. Less than 10 were infected with vaccination, so that’s >80% efficacy, roughly in line with the studies. So a superspreader event could fully explain this.
I agree. Moreover, 7 of the 8 people with positive tests were completely asymptomatic with the 8th person recovering fairly quickly. This is an excellent outcome when you consider the fact that these people were in close indoor quarters for hours.
J&J is probably more effective as a 2-shot vaccine than as a one-shot vaccine, but it’s on the market as a one-shot vaccine. Beyond that, the vaccine did its job in preventing the worst outcomes. People get colds, even mild cases of flu, and there’s no reason to freak out unless it really knocks you off your ass.