A Bold Survivor Prediction (Spoiler!)

Just my opinion, of course…
I don’t think Nick’s vote was so much a splitting of the group as it was a final jab at Keith. I think Nick knew he was going, and it was just his way of just giving Keith another vote against him…in case of another tie later on, it could come back to hurt him.
That’s how Jeff got booted, remember? That one vote from Debb at the very beginning was what got him booted when it was a tie between him and Colby after the merge.
Just another way to look at it…

Because they want to win, and they’d be crazy to want to go up against Colby in the final immunity challenges or in front of the jury. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: unless he wins immunity, Colby’s outta there on this week’s show.

And while I may not have said it before, minty green, I’ll say it now: you are dead wrong. There is no logical reason for Colby to get voted out this week. Amber, Rodger and Elisabeth are all more vulnerable.

Colby, Keith, and Tina have to realize that they can not win the game if Elizabeth or Rodger is in the final 2. They are more of a threat to the alliance than Colby. The only hope any of them have for winning the game is to bring another Kucha to the final Tribal Council. I don’t think Amber stands a chance because she aligned herself too close to Jerri and I don’t think they want her to win because of it. They’ll probably keep her around just until Rodger and Elisabeth are booted and then she’ll be next to go.

Kid_Gilligan said:

I would estimate that as being worth approximately $0.00. And I may be overestimating.

No offense, but his “rumor” is like every other one – worthless. Even moreso because it appears that the final vote is not even known to most of the crew.

Kinsey said:

If they are smart, and if they are in the final three (which I don’t happen to think they will, but what the heck), then Tina should choose to keep Keith around. Jerri would never vote for him, and Amber probably wouldn’t either. She already is more buddy-buddy with Elisabeth and Rodger, so that gives her the four she needs. If Keith wins immunity, he should pick Colby in the hopes that Jerri and Amber will feel betrayed enough by Colby to turn on him (I don’t think it would happen, but that’s about his only chance). If Colby wins immunity, he should pick Keith.

minty green said:

And you’ll see it again – when one of us pulls up this thread Thursday night to say “Nyah Nyah!” to you. :slight_smile:

Fair enough, David B. Just don’t go too far over the top if he stays because he wins immunity. But short of immunity, I still think the cowboy’s gonna ride off into the sunset.

There’s a thread over in GQ by Little Nemo asking some questions about the show.
I screwed up and put some spoilers in one of my answers, so I will ask this question here…

Does anyone know exactly what goes into choosing the contestants? And how they split the chosen 16 into the two teams?
Hubby and I were talking about it the night Alicia and Kimmi got into it. I mean, come on, putting a hunter (Michael) and a vegetarian (Kimmi) on the same team was no accident. Michael had talked about wanting to kill an animal, he is a hunter, and putting him on the same team with a vegetarian seems a little like storing the gasoline by the dry newspapers.
Do you think they purposely choose people who would cause conflict? Or perhaps choose two people they think will argue?

I would love to have been a fly on the wall when they were making the final decisions and deciding how to split them up.

Tonight, Colby wins both Reward and Immunity challenges. Amber is kicked off. Keith is a hero.

Aren’t you supposed to warn us about “spoilers,” Libertarian? :wink:

But I think you’re right that if Colby wins immunity, Amber’s the next deportee.

The title says spoiler. Besides, I haven’t seen it. It’s just a prediction. Colby’s the only one with any strength left, and you can see Keith treading water in CBS’s teaser. Amber’s a no-brainer.

West Coast/Aussie spoiler alert!!!

Okay, immunity blew my Colby prediction, but at least I nailed the T-K-E-R alliance.

It wasn’t immunity that blew your prediction, minty green. Immunity or no, Colby was not in any sort of position politically where he was in any danger of being voted off. Your prediction was foolish on its face.

However, I think he did himself a bad turn tonight by winning both the reward and immunity challenges (good call, by the way, Libertarian). Colby didn’t need to win either, and it would have been better for him in the long run if he had deliberately lost them both. Tonight just served to underscore for the others how strong a competitor he is. Colby is now in a very precarious position, which can only be the worse for him if he has a falling out with Keith, as hinted in the teaser for next week.

The ousting of Amber (again, good call, Libertarian) was frustrating to me. Obviously Elisabeth and Rodger convinced Keith and Tina to change allegiances, and just as obviously they did NOT discuss it with Colby. But we saw none of that on-camera; this week’s show focused on the storm and the retrieval of the rice, and left out the intrigues. I want to know what brought E and R around.

Colby is now in the same position as Amber when Jerri was ejected: blindsided and left out by his own tribemates. It’s not looking good for my $150.

Are you crazy? Like some of us have been saying, there is (and has been, since Jerri got the boot) a TK-ER alliance … Colby would have been gone so fast if he didn’t win immunity. They’ve been trying to nail him for 2 weeks but he keeps winning immunity! Unless Colby wins immunity next week he’s gone by a 4-1 and i bet he votes for either Tina or Keith out of spite.

I’m too mature to say “Nyah Nyah!” so i’ll go “pffft!!” instead.

Yet for the life of me, i can’t figure out why Tina-Keith didn’t get Colby-Amber to vote for Elisabeth instead of Rodger. When it gets down to TKER, Keith is gone unless he wins immunity (four previous votes against him versus Lisa’s two and Rodger’s two). How can they play so badly yet end up in the final four? They’re no Richard. The only way Tina or Keith can win is if they face off each other in the final two … i think they’ve pretty much pissed off everyone in their old tribe (Jerri, Amber, Colby).

If Colby wins immunity next week, who’s gone? Which side will Colby take?

This week was a surprise to me. Not only did the ex-Ogakors vote against one of their own; they split up in the process.

Keith and Tina’s actions seem inexplicable. Working with Amber and Colby or with Elisabeth and Rodger will get them into the final four. So why go with Elisabeth and Rodger? They seem to be the two contestants least likely to betray each other, so Keith or Tina are more likely to end up being the odd man out. And Rodger and Elisabeth are the two most likable people on the show; it’s unlikely either one will be beaten if they make it to the final vote. And while the ex-Kuchas might have forgiven being voted off because of tribal loyalty, Keith and Tina have now voted off two members of their old tribe and apparently shut out a third. If either of them has to compete against anyone except each other in the final vote, they’re doomed.

Re: Keith and Tina’s actions. I also could not understand their choice…right now they’ve determined that they’ll probably make it to the final four (and that’s ONLY if Colby DOESN’T win immunity next week…if he does, then the alliance of T-K-E-R needs to vote amongst themselves, and Colby will be able to get back at T or K by voting for one of them).

If T & K had stuck w/ Colby, they’re assured of being in the final three…and that’s where you wanna be. All you have to do is win that one last immunity then. Being in the final four is kind of pointless, and as someone pointed out it’s just as likely that Tina or Keith will be ousted before Rodger and Elizabeth.

As much as everyone likes Rodger and Elizabeth, I think both Keith and Tina are far stronger and tougher people…I mean, who were the two people who went after the rice, after all? (Certainly not the “cheerleading” Rodger and Elizabeth.) Tina’s positively scary. And I kind of admire her for that…

So I was disappointed in T&K that they made IMHO a stupid political blunder.

Well, maybe the point is that K and T are looking to be the final two. The first time Colby doesn’t win immunity, he’s gone because he’s too strong.

The strength order after him goes Tina, Keith, Elisabeth, Rodger. Once Colby’s goes, T and K have virtually sealed the final two spots, as they shouldn’t have a tough time winning immunity after that (one or the other should be able to beat out Rodger and Elisabeth in just about any contest).

:::not singling out Shylock, just wanna make a point:::
Let’s also remember that it’s easy for us to play Monday morning quarterback, while we sit in our warm dry homes with clean clothes and full bellies, plotting who should be voted out next.
After the reward challenge, when they got back to the flooded camp, Elisabeth said they hadn’t eaten all day, and obviously weren’t going to eat that night. They finally found the rice, but they couldn’t even build a fire, so by the time they went to TC, they probably hadn’t eaten for nearly two days.
It’s kind of hard to think clearly when you’re starving.

I think I’m going to swing back to a E-R-T-K final four.
As Monacracy said, Colby is gone as soon as he loses an immunity.

Getting into the Final Four isn’t enough to win. The younger, stronger Amber and Colby would be better bets to win it all than Keith and Tina (who are practically married, it seems). Amber and Colby had to go to give Keith and Tina a better shot at being the final 2.

As to why they’d vote for Rodger instead of Amber? Amber was gone anyway, with the votes from Rodger, Elisabeth, and Colby; so Keith and Tina didn’t need to pile on and could afford to look downrange. They’d already given Liz a couple of votes but didn’t know if Rodger had any. Giving him a couple would make him the loser in a future tiebreaker vs. Tina. And lest we forget, Keith has a pile of votes already, and depends on Tina to keep pulling him through the votes.

Give Tina credit - she’s playing this game extremely well, both tactically and politically, and is in control the moment Colby becomes vulnerable and gets sent to the ranch. With no previous votes, she wins any Tribal Council tiebreaker, which will almost inevitably happen when there are 4 left. If Colby is gone next week, Tina will be effectively immune at that point, she may be able to arrange for her least-popular opponent (Keith?) to win the challenge, and hope for the best in the Final 3.

Here’s a point for speculation. Being as Keith and Tina have always stuck so closely together, if they are the final two, who do you think the seven jury members will pick as the big winner?

Good question, probably Tina. Jerri and Amber hate Keith.

On a sidenote, apparently even the winner doesn’t know s/he won yet!