A Bold Survivor Prediction (Spoiler!)

Fiver said:

I feel the same way. The only “political” talk we heard was early on, discussing how Amber is in a precarious position. But they still didn’t say why T/K decided to vote against Amber this time, or why they chose not to include Colby in their decision. He obviously had no clue, because on voting for Rodger, he said he was sticking to the batting order.

It looks (from the promos) like next week there will be some problems between Keith & Colby – either due to food or maybe because of this vote?

Little Nemo: I mentioned earlier what would probably happen in a Tina/Keith Final Two: Tina wins.

I’d venture to guess that it is due to the vote…even if “food” is the topic of the argument, it’s gotta be about the vote. Colby knows he’s on thin ice…and been betrayed…and he’s probably pissed about it.

A book on the show gives excerpts from the casting director’s notes on the contestants. It’s clear they were chosen (and presumedly assigned tribes) to appeal to various audience demographics and to create confrontations.

While there are many Survivor! threads floating about, this seems to be the one for making predictions, so I’ll go on and make mine for next week: Colby gets the boot unless he wins immunity.

He has won immunity twice in a row now. I think he was in a pretty good position both weeks and didn’t need the immunity; Nick and Jerri both would have gone before him even if he hadn’t won it.

But by winning twice in a row, plus the reward challenge this week, he has made himself a marked man. Everyone likes him: he works hard for the good of the tribe, he’s sincerely sad that the others can’t share in the rewards with him, and he has real affection for the others. None of that matters. Or rather, it does matter: because he’s such a great guy, he has to go. The others will wonder if they could beat him if it came down to them vs. Colby. So he’ll be voted out as soon as they get the chance.

If Colby wins immunity for the third time in a row, then it’s back to ex-Kucha bashing and Elisabeth or Rodger will go. I’m guessing Rodger, for no better reason than that I read a rumor Elisabeth makes the final four.

If you’re interested in possible spoiler information, there is a photo at SurvivorNews.net (and I’ve written an article about my thoughts here at this location) that purports to show who 6/7 of the jury is, thus telling us who the final three are. I won’t say anything more about who it contains here, but I think the photo is real (as in “unadulterated”), but the timing may be fake such that it’s a red herring.

Yeah, the pic looks real enough, but I have a feeling it’s a red herring. Just a hunch. I wonder, who’s on the other side of the camera?

It doesn’t matter who was behind the camera, Gazoo. There are non-contestants in the picture (presumably El Rancho or Survivor! staff), so there could just as easily be a non-contestant behind the camera, too.

I agree with the analysis at the site that this is probably a real photo, but released as a red herring. Mark Burnett is cunning. I bet he even gathered some of the contestants at El Rancho and asked them to pose for several of these “leaked” photos, planning all along to release them as necessary to generate buzz.

That said, the scenario implied by the photo, that Rodger and Elisabeth will be the next two ejected (I love writing the word “ejected!”), seems very plausible. They are, after all, the last two ex-Kucha to three ex-Ogakors.

Great work, David! Preliminarily, the only thing I can tell you about when the picture was taken is what time it was.

I pasted the photo into my image editor, and masked the area around the watch, copying that area to a new image. I then unsharped that image at a radius of 2 pixels. Then, I high-toned the edges, and unsharped again at a radius of ten pixels. I enlarged the image 5 times, at 25% enlargement each time with 2-pixel unsharping to avoid, as much as possible, arbitrary assignments of pixels from the enlargement algorithm.

I flipped that final image diagonally, since the watch would have been upside down and backwards. The resulting watch-face was an ellipsis, due to the perspective of the photo. Therefore, it was difficult to tell which hand was for the hour, and which for the minute.

I masked an exact circle around the ellipsis, and copied that section off to a separate image and created an object from the mask, which I then skewed into a perfect circle, so that I was able to narrow down four choices to two.

The picture was taken at 12:50. Don’t know AM or PM, but given the nature of the mess on the counter, and the rather alert looking people, I would venture to guess PM. Nick looks a little sleepy, but then he always does, plus I can’t see Roger staying up till the wee hours.

My guess is therefore 12:50 PM.

Who are the three people on the right? The person in the tan hat (face hidden) the girl in the white tank top and the girl in the blue shirt (not Alicia, is it?)

I think it’s a red herring. This could have been taken any time, even after the final voting.
Could be at a wrap party.
Who’s to say all 16 contestants aren’t there?