Who saw it coming? A week ago Kucha and Ogakor were headed for the merge, nominally equal at 5 members each, but with Kucha presenting a more confident, united front after Michael’s accident. Ogakor seemed dissolute and demoralized in comparison.
I was worried. Y’all have heard me mention I’m in a pool for this season of Survivor, and Colby’s my boy, so I was worried about this episode. If Ogakor went down by one this week, then the other four, including Colby, would follow single file, week by week.
My anxiety turned to dismay at the tribal council, as the new tribe Barramundi went to vote and it looked like they were ganging up on Colby.
But no! Colby indeed got five votes, all from the ex-Kuchas, but Jeff got five as well, and since he’d had one prior vote against him (and apparently ex-Ogakor knew it), he’s out. Now ex-Ogakor has a one-vote advantage over ex-Kucha. A stunning reversal.
Points to ponder:
If Keith had not won immunity, would he have been out? Does ex-Kucha realize he’s the weak sister among ex-Ogakor?
What strategies do the former tribes now share? I assume they confer and choose two people from the other tribe to vote for before each immunity challenge, a primary and a secondary. If the primary wins immunity, they vote for the secondary. If they make that explicit beforehand, then they won’t accidentally split the vote and lose one of their own.
Does ex-Kucha have any chance at all now, or are they sitting ducks for ex-Ogakor?
If ex-Kucha gets down to one member and that member wins immunity, what will ex-Ogakor do?
I just have to say that the ONLY reason I’m watching this show is to see that be-yatch Jerri get voted out. I wish they’d throw her out already so I can reclaim my Thursday nights.
X-Ogakor definetly has the advantage now. Kucha made a huge mistake in not going after Jerri. I do think they would have gone after Keith if he had not won immunity. They could tell he was an outsider in Ogakor. I think they went after Colby because he was the strongest one and if he had gone Ogakor would not have had a chance. Colby is definetly in the drivers seat now. Kucha has to try to turn Tina or Keith against Jerri and Amber if they have any chance at all to survive. The only other option for them is to try to form gender alliances and get rid of the other members that way. Ex-Ogakor should just keep voting the other tribe off one-by-one, just like what they did in Survivor 1. Ex-Kucha has to start spreading dissension amoung the ex-Ogakor and having Jerri’s personality should make that possible. If I was in a pool now Colby is the one I would want. He or Amber should be the odds on favorites.
I think they went after Colby because he was acting like an ass. So was Nick for that matter–begrudging the others a little food after they had been basically eating dirt for 2 1/2 weeks is pretty petty after all. It was Day 18 wasn’t it? Going after Jeff knowing that he had one vote against him just made good sense.
I believe Keith already hates Jerri, she is obnoxious and disliked by nearly all.
Ex-Kucha needs to be just a little not so full of themselves. True they had won most of the challenges but it was as much a matter of luck as skill and remember --pride goeth before a fall.
I guess I like to root for the underdog. But if I was basing it on pure strength, endurance and willpower Alicia (sp?) is my girl. That bitch is bad.
They must have gone after Colby because they thought he had some past votes against him. Like I posted last week, the truly devious tribe would try to convince the other side that a member with no votes was likely to have some. Hell, Colby himself said that was the strategy when he bowed out of the standfest so early. Looks like it worked, although he’s now got five votes against him if it ever comes down to another tiebreaker.
If you’re one of the four left in Kucha now, you’re in trouble, but it isn’t hopeless yet. No matter what happens next week, it’s a Kucha member that’s getting voted out. Probably whoever the biggest threat seems to be. After that, it’s 5-3, and Ogakor has enough breathing room to turn on one of their own, with a little help from the Kucha members–and that gives you a shot at forming an alliance that’ll help keep somebody from Kucha around.
So Jodi, I’d look for the big Colby-Jerri showdown in two weeks.
It’s not hopeless for Kucha yet.
I see Tina and Keith ganging up on Jerri soon.
How about the 10-plus hours on those damn poles? My husband says they must have let them get down for potty breaks…I say if they had to tinkle, it was either forfeit and get down or do it right up there on the pole. How many of them do you think peed in the water while walking out to the poles?
Ogakor would stupid not to press their advantage through at least one more round, and they know this. Kucha knows this also.
I see Kucha pretty much realizing it’s every Kucha man/woman for him/herself, and it will be interesting to see who on Kucha tries to attach themselves to whom on Ogakor.
Don’t see Ogakor hanging together after next week’s vote though…too much bitter blood. It will get real interesting after that.
I think either Alicia or Rodger will be voted off next week.
On a side note: did anyone think that Kimmi mentioning Jeff’s vote way back when would come back to haunt him? That was wild…
She’s stupid, annoying, and craves attention. If a person or two from Kucha starts hangin’ with her, being her “friend,” (Alicia are you listening??), etc., she will think she has her posse. She is somewhat attractive and very manipulative, but like many people I know with the same qualities, she can be easily deceived. She thinks everyone likes her when the opposite is true. If a couple of Kuchas falsely ingratitate themselves with her, she’ll think she has her voting bloc (with Amber and maybe Colby Cheese). On the side, the “ingratiators” hook up with Keith and Tina (and with the rest of the Kuchas) and kick her ass off.
At that point, it’s 4-4 and there are ex-Kuchas and ex-Ogakors working together.
Even if that doesn’t happen, though at 5-4 disadvantage, I think ex-Kucha is in a better situation. There is a huge split in Ogakor between Keith/Tina and Jerri. Kucha just has to see it and act on it. Keith/Tina would have no qualms about voting Jerri off before voting off a Kucha. I think Rodger and Alicia could easily persuade Keith/Tina to come over to the “Kucha side.”
One note on this week’s immunity challenge - I can’t understand why Alicia stayed in so long. I don’t think she was under any threat of being voted off and all she did was (a) show everyone how strong she is; and (b) tire herself out.
Okay, two notes - How cool was it of Tina to basically give Keith immunity?
I have two theories as to why Alicia hung in there for so long:[ol][li]She was trying to draw Ogakor votes away from Jeff. By staying out there so long, she was hoping that Ogakor might conclude that she was vulnerable (i.e., that she had previous votes against her). That would be a way of protecting Jeff, and keeping Kucha intact.[/li][li]She is just so damn competitive she can’t stand to lose at anything.[/ol][/li]
Did anyone else catch Colby’s remark in next week’s previews? Something about “I lied to Jerri, and I have no qualms about that,” or words to that effect? Does this mean he turns on Jerri next week, or is it another mis-direction from the producers?
Actually, the way the producers have been setting up Jerri as the villain, I suspect she will be around 'til the very end. People will tune in hoping to see her get voted off. The Richard Hatch effect.
I would like to see Colby and/or Keith and/or Tina shift into an alliance with Rodger and Elisabeth at some point.
Were I a bettin’ man (which, respecting the OP, I guess I am), I’d put my money on this possibility. Alicia is a strong Type A and can’t stand not to give her all to any challenge. I doubt concern for Jeff ever entered her mind.
Certainly true to some effect. The producers can spin things the way they want through tricky editing, and clearly do. For all we know, the apparent meek shrinking violet Amber curses like a sailor and farts after meals. The only objective information we have is the votes, and those don’t help much.
That said, I will be very surprised if Jerri wins this thing.
And why would you like to see that, spoke-?
I think the ex-Ogakor voting bloc will persist for at least one more week (I mean, “three more days.”). But I have reason to believe it will break down at some point, because I’ve read rumors…
SPOILER ALERT!
…that Elisabeth lasted at least into the final four.
I didn’t notice it (if, that is, CBS even showed it) but both pre-merge and then last episode post-vote Jeff mentioned that Kimmi had somehow let Ogakor know that he had a vote against him. Pre-merge episode he was wondering if they remembered or not (and I think he talked about it during last week’s episode too). Then after the vote in the “final words” part he specifically talked about how “one member’s large mouth cost him his chance” (paraphrasing there). He had mentioned Kimmi by name earlier.
Obviously, she must have said it (probably accidentally) during a challenge of some sort when Ogakor and Kucha were present. Not thinking about the ramifications of what she was saying…
Just to clear up the confusing statement in my post above - what I didn’t see was the part where Kimmi actually told Ogakor about Jeff’s vote…or if CBS even showed that in the week it happened.
I agree that Kucha picked Colby because they thought he had votes against him. I was surprised that he didn’t have at least one. I was sorry to see Jeff go; I really liked him.
I have a feeling that Tina and Keith will align against Jerri and Amber.
As much as I hate it, I think Rodger is the next to go: 1) because he won’t win immunity; and 2) because he’s so darn likable. No one will want to be against this guy in the last round.
Hey, did anyone else notice how hardcore everyone is now? It was plotting, strategy, and speculation from beginning to end. Sheesh, Gervase didn’t even realize he was in trouble until the night he got the boot!
Anyway, as far tribal alliances go, remember, Sue and Rudy didn’t win. Don’t think the former Ogakor members don’t know this. They may have seemed dispirited a couple of weeks ago, but the ball’s definitely in their court now…and they’d be foolish to overlook the dangerous members on their own side. Jerri’s an absolute cutthroat, Colby’s still strong (surviving a close call only makes him a greater threat), and definitely don’t overlook Tina, probably the greatest uniting force left.
As I see it, the tribal lines hold for one more tribal council at the most. It’ll most likely be Rodger, for reasons mentioned earlier. On the other side, Jerri looks the most vulnerable. After that, it’s anybody’s ballgame.
It’s getting to the point where even small alliances are important. It seems that three voting pairs have formed; Rodger and Elisabeth, Jerri and Amber, and Tina and Keith. The other three - Colby, Alicia, and Nick - seem to be loners (as was Jeff). My guess is that one of those three will be voted off next, with my hunch being Nick.
Another thing to remember is that voting strategy has changed. In previous weeks, the contestants had to vote off weak members to keep their tribe an overall strong contender. From now on, each contestant has to vote against the individual who they feel is the biggest threat. So being an obviously strong contestant has gone from being an advantage to a liability.
The contestants also have to remember to keep one eye on the ultimate vote. From now on, the people being voted off will be the ones who will pick the ultimate winner. So contestants now have to figure out how to vote people off while minimizing resentment.
See, I would really like to hear what caused them to vote for Colby. As someone else mentioned, initially you vote out weak members. There’s no way they thought Colby was weak, or that he had personality conflicts with the other members. I couldn’t believe they would actually think Colby had been voted against earlier. PunditLisa, why were you surprised that he had no votes?
I guess we should keep in mind that the tribes really didn’t know much about the personalities of the other tribe members, but I have a hard time believing that they thought Colby would have more votes than Jerri!
Little Nemo makes a good point about not pissing off the jury for the last round. But remember, you have to actually make it to that final round in the first place. Considering there are seven votes to get past
I agree you have to start taking out the threats immediately. That’s why I think Alicia–assuming she doesn’t win immunity, which is very possible if it’s another physical challenge–is out of there on Wednesday, with Jerri or Colby to follow the next week. Nobody yet seems to have a sizable enough voting block to survive being a threat, a la Richard Hatch.
And I totally agree with spoke- that there simply must be more Elisabeth.
