A Bold Survivor Prediction (Spoiler!)

Colby is gone.

This week.

Here’s how I see it:

Elisabeth is going to show us her devious side this week. If Elisabeth thinks about it, she’ll realize that she will be doomed in an alliance with Colby, Keith, Tina and Roger. When it gets down to those five, she will be gone. To prevent that, she needs to get rid of Colby now. The steps:[ul]
[li]Meet with ex-Kucha to reaffirm Elisabeth-Roger-Nick alliance.[/li][li]Amber is desperate. She thinks, no doubt, that she will be next to go. Have Nick approach her and suggest an alliance. She will readily agree, as she feels betrayed by ex-Ogakor.[/li][li]Meanwhile, Elisabeth and Roger meet with Keith and Tina. E&R say: “We feel like Colby needs to go this week. He’s too much of a threat in immunity challenges.”[/li][li]Keith and Tina may protest, but Elisabeth and Roger remain firm. “Well, we feel pretty strongly about this,” says Roger in his best aw-shucks-I’m-just-a-good-old-boy drawl. “If y’all don’t feel comfortable doing that, we understand, but we feel like we have to.”[/li][li]Now, Elisabeth and Roger can vote against Colby with a clear conscience. And more importantly, they can do it without invoking any anger from Keith or Tina. After all, they were 100% up-front about it.[/li][li]Elisabeth, Amber, Roger and Nick vote for Colby. It doesn’t matter how Nick and Tina vote.[/li][li]Colby’s gone, and Elisabeth is in the driver’s seat.[/ul][/li]
Of course, immunity could keep this from happening.

The other wild card is the food situation. In the previews, it looked like they might be offering food as an incentive for someone to leave voluntarily.

Also, I realize that the above scenario contradicts my earlier prediction. That’s actually pretty sweet for me. No matter how this week’s episode turns out, I can find one of my past posts and say “See? I told you so!”

Nope, won’t happen.

Unless he wins immunity again, Nick is gone.

Tina/Keith/Colby know they have to stay solid. Amber knows that T/K/C need her. She will be upset about booting Jerri, but she’ll realize that she has to get over it if she hopes to stick around. So she’ll join her fellow ex-Ogakorans and boot Nick.

That’s suicidal, David B. Amber knows that if it comes down to her, Keith, Colby and Tina, she is gone. Furthermore, she now knows she can’t trust K,C & T.

At least with Nick, Elisabeth and Roger, there’s a chance they’ll be honest with her. Anyway, they don’t have a record of lying to her like the others do.

Also, this

doesn’t matter in my scenario. They can vote as a bloc and Colby would still be gone on the votes of the other four.

I guess one part of our difference here is that you’re giving Amber a lot more credit for intelligence than I am. I mean, this was Jerri’s lapdog, fercryinoutloud.

Another thing: now that Tina showed some emotion by taking Elisabeth’s pleas to heart, Elisabeth might not be eager to turn on her by joining with Amber to vote against the T/K/C bloc.

Interesting scenario, spoke-.
You’re right; it looked like they may offer them more rice (or whatever) if someone leaves voluntarily. Maybe Amber will leave, knowing she can’t trust anyone? She has to know that she is really stuck in the middle.

Here’s how I see it:
Both sides (ex-tribes) will try to get her to vote their way. Elisabeth, Rodger and Nick will try to get her by reminding her she can’t trust her former tribe-mates; and Colby, Keith and Tina will try to get her by saying Jerri was a threat and promising to get her into the final four (by continuing to vote off the ex-Kucha).
Colby, Keith and Tina will vote for either Nick or Elisabeth, (depending on who wins immunity, of course). Most likely Elisabeth, since she already has a couple votes.
Nick, Rodger and Elizabeth will vote for either Colby or Keith (again, depending on immunity).
Amber will vote with one side or the other, in my opinion with the ex-Kuchas.
After this week, I think the voting will become more scattered, rather than even ties or all against one.
I think.
Food question: In the first Survivor, all they had was rice, right? They had to find all other food (fish, coconuts, etc.)
This time, they have flour (for Jerri’s tortillas) and it looks like they have some canned goods as well. They had canned spaghetti once, right? Was the canned stuff a reward (like the Doritos and soda) or did they get more food this time?

Okay, another thought…
(jeez, you could go nuts coming up with different storylines for this thing :slight_smile: )

This is a slight variation on spoke-'s line of thinking.
How about a Rodger-Elisabeth-Keith-Tina bloc? They team up (secretly) and decide they will be the final four.
They get rid of Colby first, then Nick and Amber.

Of course, when it comes down to the final four, it will be Elisabeth & Rodger against Keith & Tina (sort of like Susan & Kelly against Rich & Rudy in the first one).

I think the flour came with the rice. You know, when they first landed and they had to break open the crate and take everything they could carry to their tribe’s location. As far as the canned spaghetti, I’m not sure where it came from. I imagine it was either in the gift basket they got when they merged tribes, or maybe it was one of the items that they ordered from the catalogue in that reward challenge (I didn’t watch the episode that week, so I’m not sure what they ordered).

There were some canned goods among their initial supplies.

Kinsey, you read my mind.

Oh, ok, I guess that’s where I got it. You know, one of those subliminal things…I read your posts and just kind of subconciously remembered it. :slight_smile:
I do think the final four could easily be Elisabeth, Rodger, Keith and Tina. The next few episodes should be pretty good.

There are too many Survivor threads!

On April 2, David B said:

I just wanted to point this out and gloat a bit.

:wink:

And spoke- was wrong, wrong, wrong. Even if he hadn’t won immunity, Colby wouldn’t have been booted.

Curse you for pulling up this thread, David B! You were supposed to pull up the thread where I said:

[quote]
Barring immunities:[ul]
[li]Nick goes next. (He’s a threat in immunity challenges.)[/li][li]Then Amber. (Hitched her horse to the wrong wagon.)[/li][li]Then Elisabeth. (At which point I begin my boycott of the[/li]show.) The reason given will be that she’s too likeable to face at the end.
[li]Then Rodger. (Same reason.)[/li][li]Then Tina. (Neither Keith nor Colby will want to face her in a vote.)[/li][li]Keith vs. Colby in the final vote.[/li][li]Colby wins and immediately blows his money on a helicopter.[/ul][/li][/quote]

…Thus giving me the opportunity to say “See? I told you so!”

For future reference, anytime I make inconsistent Survivor predictions in different threads, please have the common courtesy to pull up the thread where I got it right.

(thread bumped for spoke- humiliation purposes)

I’ll make my own prediction here: Rodger gets booted this week.

Second prediction: Elisabeth will be among the final four.

I will agree with Fiver to say that Rodger will be the next to go.
But I think Elisabeth will go after him. I think Amber is such a sheep (should we call her Ambahhhh?) she will stick with her former tribe-mates and she will be in the final four. I think I’ve given up on a Rodger-Elisabeth-Tina-Keith final four. Who has more votes, Colby or Keith? It’s Colby, right? Once they get down to the final four, the three will boot Amber, then T & K will team up and kick out Colby.
I think the final two will be Tina and Keith.

Of course, all this changes depending on immunity.
Remembering the first one, the last few immunity challenges were more mental than physical. (That’s how Kelly won so many (five?) in a row) I wonder if that will happen again.

I’ve predicted elsewhere (I think I linked to it earlier here, or else in one of the other myriad Survivor threads) that Elisabeth would be in the final four, along with Tina, Keith, and Colby. I also think Rodger will be next, but it’s also possible he’ll win immunity, thus meaning the T/K/C team will have to choose between getting rid of Elisabeth and Amber. This would put them in a similar position to where they were with Jerri. In that case, Amber goes, and then Rodger’s next.

Please … are you all blind? Do you not see the Tina-Keith-Elisabeth-Rodger alliance?

Notice how Nick voted for Keith, but Lisa-Rodger voted for Amber … a splitting of their old tribe, it looks like.

Picture this, if there were a TK-ER alliance, who would ER have to vote for if Colby won immunity? Answer - Amber. Who did they vote for since Colby won immunity? Answer - Amber. They couldn’t vote for Nick, that would be a slap in the face … and there were plenty of votes to get him gone.

If Colby didn’t win immunity, he woulda been gone … just watch, next week Colby is gone unless he wins I. again, else it will be Amber.

Of course, i make my predictions assuming that the average IQ of the Survivors is at least 80, which is actually very questionable.

Why would Tina and Keith turn on Colby when he has stuck with them all along, helped lead Jerri to the slaughter, etc.?

First, let me say that I have never seen the show, so what I am about to say has nothing to do with my opinion.

However, I am from Metro Detroit, and Keith is (and was prior to the show) a frequent guest on a local radio station.

He is very tight-lipped when appearing now. (You of course know that all of the castaways are home now.) However, even though HE won’t give even a crumb of a clue on the air, one of the on air personalities has said that he heard a rumor that Keith has won.

Take that for what it’s worth.

Other than rooting for the home town boy, I could care less.

Well, I was talking about when they are down to the final three. But now that I think about it, last time, when it was down to the final three (Kelly, Rudy and Rich) and Kelly won that final immunity (standing on the pole in the sun, with their hand on the idol…Rich quit after an hour or so) didn’t Kelly choose who would go with her to the final two? She choose Rich, believing she would win against him since supposedly no one liked him.

So, no, they won’t exactly turn on Colby, but if it does come down to T, K & C, it will be interesting to see (depending on who wins that final immunity), who that person will choose to go to the final two.
If Tina wins the final immunity, I think she would choose Keith. Tina seems more buddy-buddy with Keith than with Colby.
If Keith wins it, he should choose Tina, since she gave up an immunity for him.
If Colby wins it, I think he would choose…I don’t know…Keith, maybe?

I think the next few weeks will be more interesting than the first few weeks.