I’m starting to think of Amber as a dark horse possibility. She’s basically faded into Jerri’s shadow but actually that’s a good position to be in. Amber has the advantages of being part of a voting pair but hasn’t accumulated any of the resentment Jerri has. So when the pair eventually gets attacked, it’s almost a given Amber’ll be the who will be approached to turn on Jerri. Suppose my previous post is correct and Alicia, Colby, and Nick get picked off. There will then be three pairs, one of which will have to be split. Rodger and Elisabeth are tight, so Tina and Keith approach Amber to turn on Jerri (obviously there’s no way the reverse would happen). The Tina, Keith, Amber alliance votes off Rodger and Elisabeth. Tina and Keith turn on each other and Amber is the deciding vote on who joins her in the final two. She picks the person who’s makes the most enemies in the next seven weeks and she’s the obvious choice to be voted the final survivor.
Jeez, so I have to be the person to resurrect the most recent Survivor thread? 
But really, I just wanted to gloat a little that I nailed the strategy and the victim in last night’s show. That and make my prediction for next week.
Jerri’s outta here. Tina has definitely had enough of her, and when you add the three remaining Kucha votes and the almost certain support of Keith … well, the wicked witch had better pack her bags now or work her ass off for that immunity idol.
The interesting thing, though, will be to see if the unassuming types in the two tribes use the occasion of ganging up on Jerri to form a quiet cross-tribe voting bloc. Put Tina/Keith and Elisabeth/Rodger together and they’re all but guaranteed to be the final four.
I forgot to program my VCR, so I only caught the last twenty minutes of last night’s show. I saw the immunity challenge and the vote. What intrigues were there in the first part of the show? Why would Jerri and Amber have been able to have dinner together and away from the rest of the tribe?
minty green, according to last night’s vote ex-Ogakor loyalty is strong enough for them to continue picking off the ex-Kuchas. Why do you think that strategy will fail and give way to cross-tribal alliances? Did I miss something last night that suggests this?
Assuming no immunities interfere…
[ul][li]Nick gets voted out next week. It’s too early to take out Jerri. Colby, Keith and Tina won’t do that until they are assured of maintaining their majority bloc. If they vote her out next week, there is the risk of Amber going over to the ex-Kucha side, creating a 4-3 bloc which could take out C,K & T. Furthermore, Nick may be more of a threat in immunity challenges.[/li][li]Jerri gets hers the following week.[/li][li]Then Amber.[/li][li]This leaves Colby, Keith, Tina, Elisabeth and Rodger. (A possibility I raised in my earlier post.)[/li][li]I’ll guess that Rodger goes next.[/li][li]Then Elisabeth goes. (I weep bitter tears.)[/li][li]Tina goes next, unless she wins immunity, because neither Colby nor Keith wants to be up against her in the final vote.[/li][li]Colby wins the final vote.[/ul][/li]
Tina is a bit of a wild card. She has proven that she can’t be fully trusted. I can imagine her turning on Colby at some point, maybe when they get down to the final four or five.
Fiver-
There were strong hints of a developing cross-tribe alliance. Elisabeth (bless her heart) took the bull by the horns and started working on Tina and Keith. Tina, seemed receptive, and Jerri acted pretty nervous about the developing friendship between Elisabeth and Tina.
Tina also made a pointed comment to the effect that she wanted the “nice people” to win, which would of course eliminate Evil Jerri.
Oh yeah, and Jerri won the meal in a boomerang-throwing challenge. She got to select one person to share the meal and she (foolishly) chose Amber, her only strong ally. This gave the rest of the group the chance to talk about her behind her back. Big mistake. She should have left Amber to guard the home front and should have picked Tina to share the meal. That would have given her a chance to work on Tina a bit.
What I tell ya? Different Survivor, different gameplan. Slay the lions first; the lambs can wait. Alicia, the most fearsome personality and hence the greatest threat (now that Debb and Michael are out), was the one that got the boot. So it’s not just ge Richard, but get Sue as well. I love it.
That said, Jerri is definitely toast. Man, even I’m getting annoyed by her, and don’t forget, she survived only because former Kucha needed to press their advantage. Now, with just three former Kucha members left (and it’s been completely downhill since round 4), they’ve effectively been taken out, meaning that what little sanctuary Jerri had is now scattered to the winds. I’m really looking forward to the next immunity challenge. 
After that…who knows. Colby looks vulnerable, Keith might be on the bubble as well (can he win the necklace when it really counts?), and Nick will probably get nicked as well. Otherwise, it’s just a plain 'ol scrap to the finish.
I’ll tell ya’ll exactly why I think Tina and Keith would be smart to do the cross-tribal thing now and ensure that Jerri gets booted.
Assume that Ogakor just kept picking off the Kuchas. When that’s done, Tina and Keth are in the hands of Jerri, Amber, and Colby. Colby’s the obvious swing vote, and if he wants to win the million bucks, he has to go into the final pair with somebody who’s more hated than he is. That does not bode well for Tina and Keith. (Admittedly, Colby’s trying to play the middle so much that he couldn’t make it past the round of three without depending on the immunity idol, no matter who the other two Ogakors would be.)
So if they want to win, it’s time now for Tina and Keith to team up with a couple Kucha voters. If they wait any longer, there won’t be enough Kucha members left to ensure that they can hold of the rest of Ogakor.
I still don’t see why Jerri should go before the three remaining ex-Kuchas. Ex-Ogakor folded into Barramundi with an explicit pact to destroy Kucha first before settling their own hash, and I haven’t seen any evidence yet (granted, I missed half of last night’s show) to undermine that assumption.
Would ex-Ogakor really turn on itself simply because Jerri’s annoying? It certainly isn’t the case that she’s a major threat in immunity challenges: she hasn’t come close to winning one yet.
Did anybody catch CBS’s gaff last night? When Jerri was alone, and she threw something that broke (oops!), there was a boomerang in the background. Connor thinks to hisself…hey, when did they get a boomerang?!? So I says to me girlfriend (by the way, I have no idea why I typing like this), “I bet the reward challenge involves a boomerang.”
Was I right? You betcha! Did I get anything for it? Hell no!
That said, while I agree with Fiver, I have to say that if it were me, I’d vote Jerri out if not just to make it that much more pleasant. And if that happens, I would be surprised to see new alliances form.
If I were in the final two, I’d like to go against Jerri. It might be a good strategy to keep Jerri around so that the jury has a choice between someone who has been portrayed as “good” and someone who has been portrayed as “a bitch”.
Of course, Richard won in the first one…
Colby. Yep, the “on the outside I don’t seem so bright” guy.
Here’s how:
-Colby keeps Ogakor voting as a block long enough to say goodbye to the Kuchas (in order: Nick, Rodger, Elisabeth).
-He now runs the show between the Keith/Tina combo and the Jerri/Amber combo.
-Keith and Tina are voted off in whichever order immunity allows by Colby/Amber/Jerri, because…
Colby wants it to end up him against Jerri. As everyone hates Jerri, he wins!
(of course, I thought Jerri would get the boot this week. All this would change if Elisabeth/Rodger can get Keith/Tina into an alliance with them. That should’ve happened last night when Jerri/Amber were off scarfing dinner.)
I like the thought, Gazoo, except for one little thing. When it comes down to Colby, Jerri, and Amber, how do you think Colby’s going to fare in that vote? If he doesn’t win that immunity challenge, he’s toast. And he has to realize that, 'cause like you say, the boy ain’t dim.
Is next week just going to be highlights of physical challenges(inotherwords a rerun)?
Okay, so I haven’t worked out all the kinks. Maybe he figures (perhaps correctly) that he can beat them both in any challenge around at that point.
Actually Colby said that he wanted the final three to be him, Keith, and Tina. He told Jerri that they (she and Amber) would go to the final three but he was lying. There’s no reason for him to tell the camera person a lie so you have to assume that at that moment he was telling the truth.
So right now Ogakor has a 5-3 advantage over Kucha. They chould bump Jerri off at the next Tribal Council and still maintain an Ogakor lead. Not only that but if they boot her off early, they will gain a little brownie points with Kucha members, who’ll be the jury for the winner.
Elizabeth seems to be bonding with Tina and if Okakor can get Elizabeth, they’ll get Rodger too. I don’t see Tina breaking away from Colby and Keith just yet so they’re pretty secure with their voting block.
Oh and about Kimmi’s vote for Jeff. According to Jeff’s interview on the Early Show, after the first challenge after they voted off Debb, Jeff Probst and someone else were setting up for the challenge and left the tribes alone. Tina asked Kimmi why they voted off Debb, who was seemingly very strong. When Tina asked Kimmi who Debb voted for, Jeff said that Kimmi blurted out his name and he said he wanted to knock her ass right off the cliff.
I finally saw last week’s episode. In retrospect, the decision to oust Alicia made sense regardless of how much the other ex-Ogakors hate Jerri. The ex-Kuchas have shown they can work as a group. If Tina, Keith, or Colby had agreed to vote off Jerri, the two former tribes would be tied at four and four. The ex-Kuchas know Colby has votes against him; unless he won the immunity, he was an easy target. Then the ex-Ogakors would be down three to four and could be picked off one by one.
Now however, the ex-Ogakors have a five to three advantage. As others have noted, it’s possible now to vote off Jerri and still keep a majority. She may get kicked off because of the personality issues.
I also continue to see Nick as a target. He’s an ex-Kucha, he’s a threat in the challenges, and he’s apparently making no effort to win allies.
Colby needs to change his strategy also if he wants to stay in the game. His refusal to commit means every other player will regard him as a potential vote against themselves. This combined with the votes he’s collected and the threat he poses at challenges makes him vulnerable.
So my picks for the next three off are Nick, Jerri, and Colby.
And did anyone else read the tabloid article that said that Jerri was openly flirting with Jeff Probst during the filming of the show and that they are now dating? One more reason to boo and hiss.
I think Colby, Keith and Tina are all hoping it will come down to themselves against Jerri, with your outcome…everyone hates Jerri, so whoever is up against her wins.
Otherwise, they would have voted her off this last time, to side with the Kuchas. I was a little surprised that didn’t happen; it sure seemed like Keith and Tina were up for it…but apparently they have their own plans.
My prediction? I see the Ogakors continuing to pick off the Kuchas one by one (depending on who wins immunity, of course), most likely with Nick and Rodger going next, then Elisabeth. Then they will turn on Amber first (a Colby/Keith/Tina voting bloc), with Jerri continuing to vote for Keith. I think it will come down to either Colby or Keith against Jerri. Jerri doesn’t like either of them, but she won’t be voting. Colby and Keith haven’t made too many enemies yet (we don’t know yet how pissed the ex-Kuchas are about them not joining with them against Jerri last week), but I think they all hate Jerri more, so whoever is against her will win.
This week’s show is sort of a “clip” show, right? Not a new one?
That’s right, a “clip” show this week. No one gets voted off.
I’d still like to know, if someone could tell me, when/where in the series to date the cast jumped off a cliff into water. They’ve shown that in collage promos, but I don’t remember seeing it in any episodes.