Survivor II 3/8/01: The Triumph of Ogakor

Fiver, that was in either the first or second show. It was a reward challenge, for blankets, which were in the big crates they had to get across the finish line.

As Grace mentioned, it was also when Kimmi spilled the beans to Tina about Jeff’s having gotten a vote. (when they voted Debb off…she asked who Debb had voted for and Kimmi told her)

Told ya so.

Now don’t tear a ligament patting yourself on the back, there, minty green. If not for Nick’s immunity, the whole thing would have played out exactly as I predicted in my earlier post.

By the way, does anyone else suspect that Colby was really cheesed off that he didn’t get to take Elisabeth for the romantic getaway?

Ow! Ow! Ow! My elbow! :smiley:

Next week’s going to be interesting. Assuming Nick doesn’t win immunity again, I think he’s the victim–he’s an immunity threat, so nobody in Ogakor is likely to want him around; and he doesn’t seem to have bonded with Elisabeth and Roger, so it’s doubtful they’d waste alliance capital to save him. If Nick wins immunity, Kentucky Rog is headed into the sunset.

But it was interesting to me that they edited out the really crucial stuff between Elisabeth and Tina. Hard to say whether or not their collusion was temporary, and who else is in on it. I still think Tina and Keith would be smart to team up with Elisabeth and Roger, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

Hey, anybody know how many negative votes each of the remaining contestants has? 'Cause I think those probably have to play a big role in the strategy from now on.

And the thought of snorkeling and picknicking on the Great Barrier Reef with Elisabeth . . . Thanks a lot, spoke-! Now I’m ruined for the rest of the day! :wink:

You know, I’m wondering if ex-Ogakor didn’t have a strategic lapse. What happens if Amber, feeling suddenly vulnerable, now ingratiates herself to (and allies with) the ex-Kucha?

That’s probably a long shot for her, though.

Barring immunities:[ul]

[li]Nick goes next. (He’s a threat in immunity challenges.)[/li][li]Then Amber. (Hitched her horse to the wrong wagon.)[/li][li]Then Elisabeth. (At which point I begin my boycott of the show.) The reason given will be that she’s too likeable to face at the end.[/li][li]Then Rodger. (Same reason.)[/li][li]Then Tina. (Neither Keith nor Colby will want to face her in a vote.)[/li][li]Keith vs. Colby in the final vote.[/li]Colby wins and immediately blows his money on a helicopter.[/ul]

I like the way you think, spoke-, mainly because a Colby win equals a Fiver win. I have to wonder just how well Colby would fare against Keith; Jerri and Tina will cancel each other out. Is there any ill will against Keith apart from Jerri’s?

Amber is such a miserable, spineless sheep; I can’t imagine what she’s going to do now that Jerri’s left and taken her will with her. Who will she choose to make her decisions from now on? How did such a non-entity make it through the screening process. I can’t believe it’s just because she’s pretty; with 46,000 entries, there must have been others just as pretty who also had thoughts in their heads.

Did you pay attention to Jerri’s final words? She honestly believed she was booted for her crack about the game not being fair. Was she really so unaware how long-standing the hatred for her was?

minty green, of the remaining Barramundi tribe, Colby has five votes, Keith three and Elisabeth two. I disagree with you; I don’t think those extant votes will make any difference from here on. I think the votes from here on will be very lopsided, with no more ties.

You say that as if there’s something wrong with buying a helicopter! :smiley: That’s what I’d do!

Thanks for the info, Fiver! The only time I think we might still see a tie is when it gets down to four people. But if I was trying to put together an alliance that would get me there, I’d want to make sure that one of the four had more votes than me, just as insurance.

spoke-, the Amber + Kucha possibility must have crossed Tina’s and Keith’s mind when they led the revolt against Jerri. So they would have wanted assurances that they would not team up with her. That’s another reason I think there’s something to the Tina-Keith-Rodger-Elisabeth team.

Lord knows what immunity could do to throw this off, but here’s my best guess for the rest of the game.

  1. Nick’s next. Threat plus no allies means he’s gone.
  2. See ya, Colby. The TKRE alliance rears its head!
  3. Dos vidanye, Amber. After Coby, ya had to know it was coming.
  4. Keith goes auf wiedersehen. I’m just going on those three past votes for the tiebreaker here.
  5. Tina fades into obscurity as Rodger and Elisabeth’s love for each other proves unbreakable.
  6. The jury vote is a love fest, with Elisabeth winning out because somebody’s still disappointed that Rodger caused him/her/them to lose a challenge.
    minty green
    Making it up out of thin air

Upon further reflection, I take that back.

  1. Keith’s one tough s.o.b. in the immunity challenge, so Elisabeth’s two votes send her packing.
  2. Sorry Rodger, but you’ll have plenty of opportunities for endorsements from Metamucil, Depends, etc.
  3. Jerri hates Keith, but she probably hates Tina more for leading the rebellion. Colby and Amber won’t be so pleased with her either, and everybody else will split down the middle. Keith wins.

Just to take a step back…

I only saw the last half of the show, but did they show how the voting blocs shifted? I must’ve missed it if so. Last I saw, Tina was telling Elisabeth that it was either Rodger or her next. Then we see Keith trying to convince Colby to vote Jerri off, with Colby resisting.

In the actual voting, I believe it was 5 for Jerri and 2 for Elisabeth. Did we see the last vote? I didn’t.

So one of two (at least) things could’ve happened (assume Amber and Jerri both voted for Elisabeth):

  1. Tina and Keith joined ex-Kucha to vote for Jerri, and didn’t tell Colby. That’d make the 5 votes for Jerri, and we didn’t get to see the third elizabeth vote. And that does mean that T&K have switched alliances.

  2. Everyone decided to go against Jerri, and we just didn’t see the 6th vote for her. Which means the T,K&C alliance is still strong.

Each version above means something entirely different moving ahead.

Note - I didn’t see the “next week’s” clips so maybe something else was explained there. If it was, could someone please let me know kindly and then we can all ignore what I wrote above :slight_smile:

Everyone voted against Jerri except for Jerri and Amber. A clip of Colby casting his vote against Jerri was shown with the closing credits.

Thanks spoke

Next time I’ll just write a one-line question first before tackling a paragraph’s worth of unnecessary analysis. :slight_smile:

C.

Unless there’s a TK-RE alliance, Nick wins (if he’s smart).

Nick approaches Amber, “Hey sweetbuns, wanna be in the final two with me?”

  • Amber convinces TKC to vote off Elisabeth instead of Nick.
  • Amber votes for either Keith or Colby with NRE.
  • Then they pick off the remaining two, leaving the last four as Amber, Nick, Elisabeth, and Rodger.
  • Amber and Nick vote Elisabeth … Elisabeth and Rodger vote Nick (they don’t want Nick in the final three … immunity) … Since Elisabeth has way more previous votes than Nick, she hits the road.
  • Unless Rodger wins immunity, it’s down to Amber & Nick, which Nick wins (otherwise Rodger wins).

So, barring any bad luck immunities, Nick wins (and the only way Amber could make it to the final two would be to do exactly as Nick says).

Of course, there very well could be a TK-RE alliance, otherwise the voting off of Jerri was complete idiocy for Tina and Keith.