A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version.

[mswas]

@DSeid

Yes, and I presented it earlier. The Religious Council could “find” enough evidence of questionable counts that they authorize a run-off which Moussavi wins. Meanwhile he has privately negotiated with the council and things are run mostly how they want things to go. End result is some modest rearrangement of power structures within the council and some slight diminishment of the Council’s power overall but only to the point where they are more co-equal with the Presidency.

Tamerlane, and just how reformist is the reformist camp? I’ve gotten the sense that in actuality the reformists would be likely to produce policies that were more moderate conservative than anything else. Is that off base?

I noticed no one commented on my post regarding Ahmedinejad as the hawk who can keep Pakistan/Taliban in line on their Eastern border.

While we consider a lot about Iran’s Western facing politics, from Lebanon and Syria to it’s dealing with the West, no one here is really discussing Iran’s eastern posture.

[Sri_Theo]

Big news from the Tehran Bureau Ayatollah Montazeri has rejected the election results. And since this was a press release I feel justified in copying and pasting it.

“Over the last several days I have been witnessing the glowing presence and the lively and sacrificial efforts of my dear and dignified sisters and brothers, old and young, in the campaign for the 10th presidential elections. Our youth also demonstrated their presence in the political scene with hope and good spirit, in order to achieve their rightful demands. They waited patiently night and day. This was an excellent occasion for the government’s officials to take advantage of and establish religious, emotional and nationalistic bonds with our youth and the rest of our people.

“Unfortunately, however, this opportunity was wasted in the worst possible way. Such election results were declared that no wise person in their right mind can believe; results based on credible evidence and witnesses has been altered extensively, and after strong protests by the people against such acts — the same people who have carried the heavy weight and burden of the Revolution during eight years of war and resisted the tanks of the imperial government [of the Shah] and those of the enemy [Iraq] — they attacked the children of the same people and nation right in front of the domestic and foreign reporters, and used astonishing violence against defenseless men and women and the dear [university] students, injuring and arresting them. And, now, they are trying to purge activists, intellectuals, and political opponents by arresting a large number of them, some of whom have even held high positions in the government of the Islamic Republic.”

“A characteristic of a strong and legitimate government — Islamic or not — is that it is capable of respecting all opinions, whether they support it or oppose it. This is necessary for any political system, in order to embrace all social classes and encourage them to participate in the affairs of their nation, and not dismiss and repulse them and, therefore, increase their numbers [the opponents’] every day. I am afraid that because the regime is considered a religious government, such acts of its officials will lead to the loss of people’s faith in their religion, and will hurt Islam.

“The present circumstances and problems that have been created after the elections have astounded the people and made them pessimistic [about their government]. They expect the officials, based on their moral and religious teachings, to be neutral and demonstrate their honesty by protecting people’s rights, particularly about such an important issue [the elections]. It is expected of the government to find an acceptable and reasonable response to people’s demands, and by using the right approach eliminate people’s pessimism and doubts. Otherwise, people will lose their trust in the government, and the government’s legitimacy will become questionable. I have said repeatedly that the nation’s votes are valuable popular and Godly assets, and any government that is based on altering them has no legitimacy.

“I ask everybody, particularly our dear youth, to continue claiming their demands with patience and to be careful and alert about keeping the peace and the nation’s security, by avoiding any kind of violence, in order not to provide any excuse to the thugs who wish to distort their lawful demands, thugs that are embedded among the people and by setting fire on people’s property and creating chaos and destruction wish to create a besieged atmosphere in the country. It is necessary to have an informed presence in the political arena, so as to allow those candidates whose rights have been denied to pursue the legal path.

“I remind all officials and security and military personnel that they should preserve their religion and not sell it out for the sake of others, and be aware that the excuse that they have been ordered [to act unlawfully] will never be accepted by the great God. They should consider people’s protesting children like their own, and avoid any irresponsible and inhumane confrontation [with them], and by learning from the past be aware that sooner or later those who commit unjust acts against people will be punished both in this world and the next. It is not possible in this era to hide the truth from the people by censorship and cutting off telecommunication communications between them.

“I end by wishing success for everyone in serving Islam and Muslims, and pray for the honor and greatness of the Iranian nation.”

This could really make a difference, but just as a sign of how hard it is to get information, he apparently released this on the 12th.

[Sri_Theo]

Also there have been billions of electrons spilled regarding Israel and Iran, I’m sure someone can dig up a few old threads regarding the map issue. Can we keep the focus on slightly more recent events? Say the possible revolution/coup/regime change in Iran?

Also word is that the head of police has been arrested as well. So trouble within the army and police, dissent within the guardian council, a discredited president and widespread street protests.

I think this is leading somewhere. In fact I think its already got somewhere, but who still thinks this will blow over with no real change?

[mswas]

Ayatollah Montazeri is an interesting character who I was unaware of before this. He’s an awesome dude.

[BrainGlutton]

@mswas

I noticed no one commented on my post regarding Ahmedinejad as the hawk who can keep Pakistan/Taliban in line on their Eastern border.

While we consider a lot about Iran’s Western facing politics, from Lebanon and Syria to it’s dealing with the West, no one here is really discussing Iran’s eastern posture.

Swing both ways, do they?

[mswas]

@BrainGlutton

Swing both ways, do they?

Yea you know how those sensuous orientals are!

[tagos]

@Sri_Theo

I think this is leading somewhere. In fact I think its already got somewhere, but who still thinks this will blow over with no real change?

Me. This is just like China. In a few days the Mad Mullahs will get their nerve back and it’ll be clobbering time.

The media is ignoring the huge counter-demonstrations and we are all ignoring the fact that outside the cities and outside of the educated, well-off westernised elite Iran is a hugely conservative religious rural country.

They’ll soon have army units from outside the cities in place.

Besides - there are no ‘moderates’ in play here. Our media is just shoe-horning events into a standard narrative shape. There is a difference in degree of religious lunacy between the two would-be leaders, not in kind.

Both hate Israel, both hate the West, both want nuclear power.

[mswas]

@tagos

Besides - there are no ‘moderates’ in play here. Our media is just shoe-horning events into a standard narrative shape. There is a difference in degree of religious lunacy between the two would-be leaders, not in kind.

Both hate Israel, both hate the West, both want nuclear power.

And yet that’s not even the point.

[DSeid]

@Sri_Theo

I think this is leading somewhere. In fact I think its already got somewhere, but who still thinks this will blow over with no real change?

I agree that change is coming. There may be two different sorts of change that it leads to though: a superficial change that we outsiders can easily observe and pigeonhole; and a behind the scenes change in internal power balances that we can only guess at. I suspect that these two different types of change may end up having little correlation with each other in both type and magnitude.

Moussavi eventually “winning” will not necessarily mean a major change in how real decisions get made and what postures Iran takes in Easterly or Westerly directions, and Ahmadinejad staying in power and continuing bellicose rhetoric does not mean that movements to coming to a deal on nuclear power and international relations will not occur.

OTOH, Khamenei has now placed his reputation firmly behind this election result and has cut off any face saving path other than keeping Ahmadinejad as the rightful victor. He may get that wish but at some substantial cost. I suspect that the result of the apparent power battle within the Religious Council is more important to the future postures that Iran assumes than whether or not Moussavi or Ahmadinejad end up being the “elected” face. And the results of those power battles may be less obvious to us on the outside.

[mswas]

@DSeid

I agree that change is coming. There may be two different sorts of change that it leads to though: a superficial change that we outsiders can easily observe and pigeonhole; and a behind the scenes change in internal power balances that we can only guess at. I suspect that these two different types of change may end up having little correlation with each other in both type and magnitude.

I think that’s missing the point. This election represents a change either way if people like Montazeri and Hazdi are to be believed. No matter who wins it represents a major change in the status quo.

Our notion of Iran as an oppressive Islamic regime is superficial and vulgar. I’m not saying it’s not accurate, only that it’s very chunky and doesn’t tell us a whole lot about what that means.

Moussavi eventually “winning” will not necessarily mean a major change in how real decisions get made and what postures Iran takes in Easterly or Westerly directions, and Ahmadinejad staying in power and continuing bellicose rhetoric does not mean that movements to coming to a deal on nuclear power and international relations will not occur.

Any move toward more democracy will be a good thing. I don’t think that Mousavi would be as bellicose about Israel as Ahmedinejad for one thing. Maybe Hezbollah wouldn’t be policing the streets in Iran.

OTOH, Khamenei has now placed his reputation firmly behind this election result and has cut off any face saving path other than keeping Ahmadinejad as the rightful victor. He may get that wish but at some substantial cost. I suspect that the result of the apparent power battle within the Religious Council is more important to the future postures that Iran assumes than whether or not Moussavi or Ahmadinejad end up being the “elected” face. And the results of those power battles may be less obvious to us on the outside.

Yes, I think one of the most important things we are seeing is a window into the Guardian Council and a recognition that it’s not a monolithic entity as we usually suppose with our chunky, vulgar, and superficial view of what it means to be an Islamic Republic.

[tagos]

@mswas

And yet that’s not even the point.

Go on. amuse us. Tell us what you think the point is?

[DSeid]

@mswas

I think that’s missing the point. This election represents a change either way if people like Montazeri and Hazdi are to be believed. No matter who wins it represents a major change in the status quo. …

I think that you may be missing my point.

It can end up looking like there is very little change with Ahmadinejad preserving his office and Khamenei still in the Supreme Leader position and yet much may be changed at a more critical power level that we cannot see. Or it could change a lot at the superficial level with Moussavi putatively in charge but with the same decisions being made mostly by the same people or going in exactly the same way they would have gone no matter who “won”. Or any other combination to any degree.

What is different, what is definitely changed, is as you point out: we are getting “a window into the Guardian Council and a recognition that it’s not a monolithic entity as we usually suppose with our chunky, vulgar, and superficial view of what it means to be an Islamic Republic.” But we not seeing something that was never there; it’s just not behind the closed shades as much right now. At least for right now.

[Der_Trihs]

@tagos

Me. This is just like China. In a few days the Mad Mullahs will get their nerve back and it’ll be clobbering time.

You’re assuming that the “Mad Mullahs” are all on the same side.

@tagos

There is a difference in degree of religious lunacy between the two would-be leaders, not in kind.

Both hate Israel, both hate the West, both want nuclear power.

The hatred for Israel is unfortunate, but neither hatred for America or the desire for nuclear power & weapons is “lunacy” for them. Rather the opposite; both make a great deal of sense for any Iranian. “Sane” is not a synonym for “sucks up to America”.

[mswas]

@tagos

Go on. amuse us. Tell us what you think the point is?

Umm. Not having the election stolen?

shakes head at needing to explain that

[mswas]

@DSeid

I think that you may be missing my point.

It can end up looking like there is very little change with Ahmadinejad preserving his office and Khamenei still in the Supreme Leader position and yet much may be changed at a more critical power level that we cannot see. Or it could change a lot at the superficial level with Moussavi putatively in charge but with the same decisions being made mostly by the same people or going in exactly the same way they would have gone no matter who “won”. Or any other combination to any degree.

Right and I am saying even with Ahmadinejad preserving his office, it may represent a critical change in the way the power dynamic works in Iran. I guess we aren’t really in disagreement.

What is different, what is definitely changed, is as you point out: we are getting “a window into the Guardian Council and a recognition that it’s not a monolithic entity as we usually suppose with our chunky, vulgar, and superficial view of what it means to be an Islamic Republic.” But we not seeing something that was never there; it’s just not behind the closed shades as much right now. At least for right now.

Right. I’ve always gotten the impression that Iran’s more Liberal side is a lot more culturally robust than we ever give them credit for. It’s what books like, “Lipstick Jihad.”, report anyhow.

[mswas]

@Der_Trihs

You’re assuming that the “Mad Mullahs” are all on the same side.

Agreed

The hatred for Israel is unfortunate, but neither hatred for America or the desire for nuclear power & weapons is “lunacy” for them. Rather the opposite; both make a great deal of sense for any Iranian. “Sane” is not a synonym for “sucks up to America”.

and Agreed

Der Trihs, I feel like I am in bizarro world, I’ve been agreeing with you a lot lately.

[DSeid]

Just to expand a small bit - the other change that may not be apparent to us on the outside (or even to the average Iranian) when all is said and done is how much power resides in elected officials vs in the Religous Council. We don’t even know what that balance looks like now - ranging from BG’s source portraying the Council as emasculated to others that characterize the President as being a face of little importance and less muscle. I get the sense of watching girl’s water polo: yeah there’s all this action up top but we all know that some of those sweet girls also have sharpened their toenails to daggers and are scratching the shit out of the other side under the water where no one can see. Even with the shade up some what we don’t see is probably the important battles that really determines the country’s future.

As to the hatred for Israel - my belief is that such is not so deep or so sincere: Israel is just their Orwellian Goldberg. Problem for them is that this Goldberg really exists and cannot count on that Iran is only trashtalking. Israel’s translators and leadership believe that a nuclear enabled Iran is an existential threat.

[mswas]

@DSeid

As to the hatred for Israel - my belief is that such is not so deep or so sincere: Israel is just their Orwellian Goldberg. Problem for them is that this Goldberg really exists and cannot count on that Iran is only trashtalking. Israel’s translators and leadership believe that a nuclear enabled Iran is an existential threat.

I agree with this.

[DSeid]

Okay, enough of this agreeing crap - “I came in here for an argument.”

[Captain_Carrot]

@Der_Trihs

You’re assuming that the “Mad Mullahs” are all on the same side.

I’m not sure that everyone in any power structure in Iran agrees on this. (Note that I am not disagreeing with you in the least). Well, except maybe the Basij, but we’ve seen splits in the Guard, army, ministries, and clergy. And, of course, the electorate.

@Der Trihs

The hatred for Israel is unfortunate, but neither hatred for America or the desire for nuclear power & weapons is “lunacy” for them. Rather the opposite; both make a great deal of sense for any Iranian. “Sane” is not a synonym for “sucks up to America”.

From what I’ve heard, the Iranian people like us just fine, they just hate our politicians. Which is a position a great deal of Americans share, quite frankly.
Also:
Inigo: The future Low King is considered pretty clever, Your Grace. Mhm.
Vimes: How does he stand on Ankh-Morpork?
Inigo: He can take Ankh-Morpork or leave it alone, Your Grace. On balance I believe he doesn’t much like us.
Vimes: I thought it was Albrecht that didn’t like us?
Inigo: No, Your Grace. Albrecht is the one who would be happy to see Ankh-Morpork burned to the ground. Rhys merely wishes we didn’t exist.
Vimes: I thought he was one of the good guys!
Inigo: Across the whole of the world, Your Grace, there inexplicably appear to be definitions of, mmm, mhm, ‘good guy’ which do not automatically mean ‘likes Ankh-Morpork’.
The Fifth Elephant, Terry Pratchett, p. 169