A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version.

I was watching CNN at a bar last night and spit beer on my friend from laughing when I read:

Ayatollah Khamenei blames Hillary Clinton for Waco disaster
Which may very well be the best example of a non sequitur I have ever heard.

That is pretty funny. And here I always thought Ayatollah Khamenei was supposed to be smart.

Right. Cause the guy who is calling on the world to respond by ceasing to recognize the Ahmadinejad government, and says it’s an international problem … he totally wants the world to butt out and say absolutely nothing.

Or he wants “the world” to speak up, but emphatically not the world’s sole superpower. It’s completely plausible that he meant “everyone except the US.” Had China and Russia in mind, he did.

Not recognizing Ahamdinejad is doing nothing. The last thing the protesters need or want is official approval by the United States. Unofficial support by people in the US and elsewhere is another thing entirely.

And if it turns out that Ahmedinejad retains power, and Moussavi is pigeon-holed, how does it benefit us to not recognize the ruling government of Iran again?

I’m sorry, but I’m not getting it.

Exactly correct. This is not getting involved with who won the election or whether or not the election was rigged. This is not about making accusations that we cannot prove. This is not advocating for a regeime changing result that just happens to at least superficially seem to be in US best interests. This not allowing events in Iran to be made into being about America or even the West. This is standing against particular actions being taken by the current power structures that are out in the open and speaking up for the freedom to protest without threat of violence. This careful positioning, condemning not a result that we do not like, but indisputable actions of oppression, is forcing other regional actors to declare whether they are for an Islamic government that shuts their people up with force or for the people being able to protest and puts much of the Arab world in a position in which they will find themselves agreeing with Obama and against the actions of an Islamic theocracy which had been positioning itself as the regional power broker. Because this as not about what America wants, the Iranian theocracy’s crackdown has put itself in a no win position: even if they succeed in squashing the protest movement it will open up populist anger against them across Islamic world; any support that other organizations get from them become a bit tarnished; other actors are a bit more free to act against them without fear of angering their populations; and Obama earns cred as a potentially “honest broker”.

Maybe Obama is, relative to the impotent bluster of others and the knee-jerk fist-clenching of others, just doing nearly nothing but sometimes doing nearly nothing is the exact right thing to do so long as you do it well.

Here’s how Arab media (Al Jazeera) reports it now.

You can imagine for yourself how it would be reported differently if Obama was suckered into playing as the blusterers would.

The crisis in Iran will play out and success for the protesters would not be helped by silly posturing. But never let a crisis go to waste. The effect that Obama’s calibrated response is having on how America is perceived in the Islamic world and consequently on his future effectiveness in being to negotiate with even a hostile Iran and to gain cooperation against terror groups is going to bear much fruit over the next year or so I think.

To be honest what is described above doesn’t sound really any worse than America. I have a friend who got thrown through a plate glass window by the NYPD at a protest during the Bush administration.

He won a settlement of about $ 40k because it was caught on camera.

Are you saying that the Al Jazeera report doesn’t sound as bad, or the situation in Iran doesn’t sound as bad? If the former…well, yeah, probably not, though I don’t recall dozens hospitalized during protests against Bush. If the former…huh? From what I’ve been reading a LOT of people have been hospitalized and killed, which I don’t recall there being parallels to during Bush’s presidency.

-XT

If Ahmedinejad retains power, Moussavi will be a lot more than pigeon-holed.

To the point: I was responding to DSeid’s claim that Moussavi did not want outside support. In fact, Moussavi is not sending a “foreigners keep out” message.

To repeat what I already said: “whether or not we should listen is another question entirely.” You seem to be making assumptions.
FWIW, I think Obama’s new statement is much better, though about five days late IMO.

And again furt I would appreciate if you do not claim that I have said something that I did not say. Again, "outside support"≠ “explicit support of American politicians.”

Perhaps you’d have preferred that he had said something as much better like this five days ago?

Oh wait. That’s what he did say. D’oh.

*Not *at all ** safe for work. This is film of a young woman dying after having being shot. I think she has been shot in the leg and it has gone deflected right up inside her body. In any case she doesn’t live long and she drowns in her own blood. There’s another video of that poor lassies death from the front but I won’t link to it.

I’ve been trying to help out by running proxies for some kids in Iran, but it’s been a bit rubbish. Terrible rubbish and no help.

I’m saying the Al Jazeera report doesn’t sound as bad. Definitely a lot of people weren’t killed, but a lot of people were injured and hospitalized during protests against Bush. You just don’t remember them because they didn’t make news, but I’ve seen the video of my friend being thrown through a window. I was at a protest and saw stupid police decisions making the situation worse on a couple of occasions. I saw with my own eyes people being beaten by police officers. I know people who have been teargassed in protests. No, not killed certainly, that’s a level they didn’t get to.

Well, if you say you saw it, then that’s fine…I’ve heard nothing that even comes remotely close to the level of violence during the protests in Iran. Hell, even Vietnam era protests didn’t come close to what I’ve been reading about the situation in Tarahan alone. I’d need a bit more than your word for how bad the protests and riots were during the Bush administration to be convinced that it is even in the same universe…even leaving aside all the deaths and shootings I’m reading about in Iran.

-XT

No, I don’t think it’s anywhere near the level of Iran, but I did see excessive force being used at protests here in New York. I’m just saying that Al Jazeera article made it sound a lot less bad than it is.

Sure, and I’d say that small instances of excessive force are going to happen periodically even in countries like the US or the various European nations (like the riots in France a few years ago). It’s the scale and levels of violence that are different.

-XT

We’re not even in disagreement. I just made an aside regarding that particular article and the way it made things sound.

Nope, not in disagreement. My apologies if I hijacked things.

-XT

Hehe, no, no big deal. What’s happening in Iran is a mess.

Do they have a wall or something that Obama can tell them to tear down? That might help.