In revisiting the OP from time to time, something I wonder about is that – being that Trump is coming from behind regarding his 2020 vote percentages – where is his increase in support sufficient to overcome Biden supposed to be coming from?
One common answer in the media over the past two months or so is from traditionally Democratic-voting groups such as African-American and Latin-American voters. @Love_Rhombus addressed this directly through a recent post in another P&E thread.
Yes, the link therein is an MSNBC opinion piece. But it’s a professional, well-cited opinion piece – no mere hack job. And IMHO the points made are more intuitively sensible than the media narrative it’s countering:
A new report from the Pew Research Center pokes a hole in the oft-repeated claim that a historic racial realignment is occurring within American politics, with nonwhite voters learning to love the GOP and Donald Trump.
In recent years — days, even — there’s been a seemingly endless deluge of news stories hyping up this purported realignment as fact. Trump and his allies have been touting similar claims as well (which seems like all the more reason to question them).
But you needn’t just take my word for it. Pew’s analysis of registered voters — based on hundreds of thousands of interviews conducted from 1994 through last summer — showed that while Democrats may have lost some support among nonwhite voters, any seismic shift in party identification is largely a figment of the media’s imagination.