A forecast of the 2024 US presidential election -- are the assumptions and results reasonable?

@Horatius was good enough to post this in the active “anti-Trump resistance” thread (which are in turn cross-posts from other P&E threads). Trump’s support is showing cracks.

EDIT: To summarize the link – (1) Biden’s campaign out-raised Trump’s in January 2024 by almost 2 to 1, and (2) the conservative CPAC convention has notably poorer attendance this year than in recent years.