Wait a second, “eco-terrorists”? So its Greenpeace frogmen? OK, you win, that’s crazier…
No, no. It was the Sea Shepherds and their kamikaze whales.
Yeah, I don’t like oil companies either, but don’t convict BP until we have more evidence. Sure, the net effect is like terrorism, but it’s still possible BP didn’t mean it.
Extremely unlikely. The mechanism of the explosion and fire that destroyed the Deepwater Horizon is highly consistent with a loss of primary well control: i.e. the maintaining of a fluid column in the wellbore sufficent to prevent formation fluid pressures from being transferred to surface.
The most likely scenario by far is that a slug of oil, mixed with gas in solution, from the reservoir zone downhole, made its way into the wellbore, during or following the last cement job. This slug of fluid, lower in density than the drilling fluid in the wellbore, but compressed under a bottomhole pressure of thousands of PSI, migrated upward until, as it neared the seabed, the entrained gas came out of solution and began to expand rapidly, to hundreds of times its original volume. This would have violently ejected the remaining fluid above it out of the ‘riser’ pipe connecting the rig to the subsea wellhead. At the same time the reduction in bottomhole pressure (due to the lower density of the formation fluid column moving uphole) would allow further entry of formation fluids behind the initial slug.
The above scenario is commonly known in the industry as a ‘kick’ and is a risk in the drilling of any well. The usual method of initial control of a kick is to activate valves called blowout preventers, or BOPs (in this case mounted on the subsea wellhead) to close off the welllbore. For whatever reason (it’s not clear yet why) either the BOPs were never activated or did not work when needed (perhaps due to damage to the hydraulic control system). There is redundancy in the controls and hydraulic hardware, so the real mystery is why they didn’t work; BOPs, by government regulation, must be rigorously tested at initial setup, and function-checked at least weekly thereafter. All operators I’ve ever worked with take this testing very seriously and the chances anyone fudged these tests are next to zero.
With the BOPs non-functional and the ejected wellbore fluids full of flammable gas, at that point fire was nearly inevitable; chances are the shattering of the lights on the derrick by the ejected wellbore materials set it off. At that point there would be nothing to do but abandon ship.
Given the above, it’s hard to see how an explosive device would fit into this scenario. If set off at surface, the person doing it would have to somehow know that a kick was about to occur; if set off subsea, the flow of formation fluid would most likely have been cut off from reaching surface via the rig’s riser, so no fire.
A remote possibility could be sabotaging of the BOP controls to prevent them from being used, but the complexity of the equipment is such that it is unlikely that one person could do it on their own, and the frequent testing would have revealed this fairly quickly.
Hope this all made sense. Feel free to ask for clarification on any points that seem obscure.
Look for the patterns, dude. When health care reform was stalled, a major insurer astoundingly announced rate increases. Financial reform was looking stalled, and then fraud by a major financial company is astoundingly revealed. The administration was planning to allow more offshore drilling, and astoundingly, this spill happens.
Don’t you see? God is a liberal!
In which case, it might be wise to postpone action on global warming for the immediate future…
They now have a picture of the terrorists.
Eco terrorists don’t actually terrorize the “eco”.
Well, okay they can do some really dumb stuff which isn’t all that great for the environment either, but one would hope that a ecoterrorist with two brain cells to rub together could work out “huge oil spill = really, really bad for environment”. Causing a huge oil spill to prove a point would be like Greenpeace deciding to kill all the whales so the Japanese can’t hunt them.
El Kabong - What ever happened to those oil-eating bacteria that were supposed to help break down oil spills that I read about many, many years ago? Why isn’t that a viable option?
If it worked, we’d have…what?..thirty million tons of fat bacteria?
Ye mods!
This started with a clever bit of understatement about the worst environmental catastrophe in US history. Apparently it was sooo understated that it whooshed the mods, and they moved it to MPSIS. My overstated reaction apparently is blatant enough to stick in the pit, yet my original meaning is disrupted.
I demand that the Pit thread’s title be restored to ‘Drill, Baby, Drill!’!!!
From the WSJ, Documents Show BP Opposed New, Stricter Safety Rules.
More specifically, BP avoided using a device that might have been really handy:
Here in Texas, BP was “judged” some time ago–after the 2005 explosion at their Texas City Refinery that killed 15. That noted liberal, James Baker, headed a panel to review BP’s safety procedures at US refineries. (BP has been a client ofBaker Botts–Houston based but representing clients in many countries & several hell dimensions-- although JB claimed he wasn’t personally involved.) I’ve begun skimming the massive pdf report–which indicates that BP’s corporate safety culture is lacking.
More information on other BP hijinks.
Surely I’m not the only one who yelled at the TV during the Oh-So-Environmentally-Sensitive BP ads.
I applied for a job at BP once. Along with the normal submissions, I had to fill out a pretty long form that was like a retail “ethics” tests combined with a short-answer essay test. That thing wasted a couple hours of my life. Not only did I not get the job, I don’t think I ever even got an automated email that they received my application.
So fuck BP for that too.
(Of course, now I’m glad of that.)
You probably were too ethical.
Remarks at home yesterday, when the TV said “…BP is expected to pay for cleanup and damages…”
Mom: Bah, they won’t!
Li’lbro (the finance manager): Course they won’t, that’s what bankruptcy is for.
Me: So first they declare bankruptcy and then they QQ and get government handouts and go back to drilling with their eyes closed.
Li’lbro: and of course then the insurance companies say “who, us? no, no, we don’t cover anything that big!”
Us, cynical? Sadly, I suspect we were being realistic.
Doesn’t BP only own the well? Wouldn’t the real blame lie with TransOcean? Or possibly Halliburton?
Doesn’t TransOcean own the rig, all equipment, all safety devices, all the employees, training, etc?
El_Kabong, I just wanted to mention that I appreciate your posts on the subject. It’s always nice to have an expert opinion to cut through the crap.
If BP had even a hint that somebody else was to blame, they’d be shouting it from the rooftops. Of course, they’ve mentioned Transocean & the other partners–but the oil-drenched albatross is hanging from BP’s neck.
(And why the hell would eco-terrorists cause a disaster that’s guaranteed to seriously damage an eco-system?)
Well, why did ELF burn all those Hummers? Frankly, the extremists like ELF are nuts and even worse at considering the consequences than the teabaggers.
That said, knowing nothing about deep-sea oil drilling, I’d have to go with both your logic and with El Kabong’s expertise. A known possibility (the kick) combined with lack of adequate safety protocols is far more likely.
The flying car that was supposed to deliver them broke down.
Sorry, couldn’t resist. Actually that’s not in my area of expertise, but I believe this is not a fully developed technology, and I’d be leery of an uncontrolled release of petroleum-eating bacteria into the wild anyway.
Oooo, why don’t you tell us all about bad=bad? Yeah, go on about A=A. It’s so brilliant 