A new DACA bill: Will it pass and if it does, what will it look like?

[Johnny_Ace]

@Ashtura

Interesting. The “84% of Americans support DACA” statistic gets trotted out a lot. Yet the Trump base is consistently pinned at around 32%. That means that at least half of Trump’s supposedly racist base supports DACA, and Trump has shown signs of sympathy for Dreamers. Yet a DACA solution won’t happen without a Democrat control because racism?

Racists or racist-enablers (one step removed but no less deplorable), which accounts for 100% of his base.

[HurricaneDitka]

@DigitalC

There will be a DACA bill brought forward in the Senate, it will be the ridiculous one by Cotton and Goodlatte. It will probably be changed into something that at least approaches being reasonable and pass with exactly 60 votes. Trump and the freedom caucus will reject it out of hand, Democrats will refuse to take up another CR until it passes and we are back where we started. Except this time the GOP has no children to hold hostage and nothing but their unpopular wall to fight for.

What makes you think the Senate DACA bill will get 60 votes? I can’t find a really clear statement of what McConnell committed to. Do you know of one?

[DigitalC]

@HurricaneDitka

What makes you think the Senate DACA bill will get 60 votes? I can’t find a really clear statement of what McConnell committed to. Do you know of one?

He didn’t commit to anything, that’s just my opinion of what is most likely to happen.

[John_Mace]

@DigitalC

There will be a DACA bill brought forward in the Senate, it will be the ridiculous one by Cotton and Goodlatte. It will probably be changed into something that at least approaches being reasonable and pass with exactly 60 votes. Trump and the freedom caucus will reject it out of hand, Democrats will refuse to take up another CR until it passes and we are back where we started. Except this time the GOP has no children to hold hostage and nothing but their unpopular wall to fight for.

Why do you hate THE TROOPS?

[DinoR]

@DigitalC

Trump and the freedom caucus will reject it out of hand,

Trump is a big deal thanks to the veto.

The Freedom Caucus rejecting it isn’t as much of a big deal. They are around 30 out of 238 votes on the GOP side of the aisle. They have to be pandered to when votes are almost entirely along party lines. Since this already requires a bipartisan deal in the Senate, they are in a weaker position than normal. It only takes a small chunk of House Democrats to support the compromise to make it possible to ignore the Freedom Caucus votes.

Trump and his veto is hard to ignore.

[John_Mace]

I don’t think Trump has the balls to veto a DACA bill that passes in both the House and the Senate. He’s a big talker, but he’s a coward. More significant, as someone mentioned up thread, is whether or not Ryan will allow a vote in the House. But my sense is that he will. The Republicans can then claim this as YET ANOTHER HUGE WIN!!!

[BigT]

The one issue I think might be exploitable for great gains is the “liberal tears” mentality. We can make it seem like we’re really upset with what we get. I’m hesitant to use it too often, because we don’t want to let people think Trump is accomplishing anything. But I think it might be usable here.

We have the wall issue. But that costs way too much to actually work. So maybe we can give in on the wall a bit, full well knowing it doesn’t actually help. We can make a big deal about how we should never give in on anything to do with the wall, and then give in, and they’ll go ballistic.

We just need to do it well enough before the election that no one cares too much, and give it time to show the wall has failed, even with the money. Whether right now is sufficiently far away, I don’t know. Then again, I don’t know if the 2018 election is even the one that’s relevant.

I mean, are liberal tears enough to motivate beyond the hatred for Trump in this mid-term election? The expectations right now seem to be that there will be a higher than usual Democratic turnout, at least, in the few places I’ve read. Can Republicans get raised to match?

[adaher]

I would imagine that a DACA bill will look a lot lik the early versions of the DREAM Act. In order to qualify for permanent legal status, an immigrant brought to the US as a child will have to:

1. Have no felonies.
2. Have attended some college
3. Served in the military

Then there will be some immigration reform measures and/or enforcement measures attached to that as well to win Republican support. Wall funding, chain migration reform, diversity lottery reform, more ICE agents, E-verify, more immigration courts. Republicans will want at least two of those. If Democrats also want legal status for parents, they’ll have to concede a LOT more on enforcement.

[adaher]

@John_Mace

I don’t think Trump has the balls to veto a DACA bill that passes in both the House and the Senate. He’s a big talker, but he’s a coward. More significant, as someone mentioned up thread, is whether or not Ryan will allow a vote in the House. But my sense is that he will. The Republicans can then claim this as YET ANOTHER HUGE WIN!!!

Trump wants to win. A DACA bill is a win, unless it’s just competely absurd, as in something like amnesty for 3 million people and no meaningful enforcement. Stephen Miller and John Kelly have enough power in the White House to make sure that doesn’t happen. And I don’t think Ryan would ever let a sham enforcement bill come up for a vote.

But if there’s some real enforcement in there, sure he’ll sign.

[Lantern]

Trump’s latest proposal has been rejected by the Democrats and also attacked by restrictionists on the right. On the one hand this suggests that there is a serious effort in the White House to find a compromise but also shows how difficult it will be to find one. I think a bill gets signed only if Trump really wants it and puts some serious pressure on Ryan to ignore the Hastert rule and allow a bill on the floor. I am skeptical but if it does happen it would be a serious personal achievement for Trump, perhaps his first big one as President. The other stuff that has been achieved like the Gorsuch appointment and the tax cut would have happened under any Republican President. If Trump can get a DACA bill, he can legitimately claim that only he could have done it.

[Johnny_Ace]

@Lantern

Trump’s latest proposal has been rejected by the Democrats and also attacked by restrictionists on the right. On the one hand this suggests that there is a serious effort in the White House to find a compromise but also shows how difficult it will be to find one. I think a bill gets signed only if Trump really wants it and puts some serious pressure on Ryan to ignore the Hastert rule and allow a bill on the floor. I am skeptical but if it does happen it would be a serious personal achievement for Trump, perhaps his first big one as President. The other stuff that has been achieved like the Gorsuch appointment and the tax cut would have happened under any Republican President. If Trump can get a DACA bill, he can legitimately claim that only he could have done it.

‘Serious’ and Trump don’t belong in the same universe. His proposal is a joke.

[adaher]

Which part do you find unacceptable?

[John_Mace]

Does anyone have a link that gives the details of this proposal?

[CarnalK]

Here’s a CNN piece on it:

White House proposes path to citizenship for 1.8 million people | CNN Politics

In what the White House framed as a “dramatic concession” and “compromise,” Trump would accept a path to citizenship not just for the roughly 700,000 undocumented immigrants were covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program when it was ended. But the proposal would also cover those undocumented immigrants who meet the DACA criteria but did not sign up and even more who would be newly eligible under the proposal’s timeframe requirements – giving legal status and a pathway to citizenship to about 1.8 million people.

In return, the White House would like to see a $25 billion investment in a trust for border infrastructure and technology, as well as more funds for personnel, and an end to family migration beyond spouses and minor children. The diversity visa lottery would also be abolished, though the visas would be reallocated so that the backlog of people already waiting for family visas and high-skilled immigration green cards would be processed.

In what may end up being the most contentious piece of the proposal, the White House is also looking to close “legal loopholes” that will allow it to deport more immigrants, specifically as it relates to undocumented immigrants from countries that don’t border the United States – which would likely include changes in immigration enforcement authority that would be virtually impossible for Democrats to swallow.

[John_Mace]

Thanks. I certainly don’t agree with all of it, but I don’t see it as absurd for Trump to put that forward. It’s pretty much what he campaigned on, and he did get elected. Elections have consequences, whether we like them or not.

[Gorsnak]

@John_Mace

Thanks. I certainly don’t agree with all of it, but I don’t see it as absurd for Trump to put that forward. It’s pretty much what he campaigned on, and he did get elected. Elections have consequences, whether we like them or not.

I’m pretty sure I missed the part where he campaigned on spending $25 billion for a wall. Seems to me I kept hearing something else about how to pay for a wall.

[CarnalK]

@Gorsnak

I’m pretty sure I missed the part where he campaigned on spending $25 billion for a wall. Seems to me I kept hearing something else about how to pay for a wall.

The article I linked doesn’t say funding for “the wall”. It mentions “$25 billion investment in a trust for border infrastructure and technology,”.

[k9bfriender]

@CarnalK

The article I linked doesn’t say funding for “the wall”. It mentions “$25 billion investment in a trust for border infrastructure and technology,”.

So, $25 billion, and we don’t even get a wall?

[CarnalK]

@k9bfriender

So, $25 billion, and we don’t even get a wall?

You want a wall now?

[ElvisL1ves]

All in all, he’s just a-
Nother prick with no wall …