Not so. We reelected Sen. Sherrod Brown and elected two Dems to the state supreme court two years ago. And see post 225.
I know Sherrod Brown was reelected in 2018. However, in 2006 he was elected to the Senate by a margin of 496,000 votes. In 2012 he won by a margin of 327,022 votes. In 2018 he won by a margin of 300,949 votes. 2018 was generally a strong year for Democrats. His margin of victory has shrunk over time.
Even if you look at % it has gotten smaller with each election. Obama took Ohio in '08 and '12 but only by 262,224 votes in '08 and 166,277 in '12. DJT beat HRC by 446,837 votes in 2016. When you consider DJT took WI, MI and PA by what…71,000 votes combined and OH has continually showed up in state polls as either within the margin of error or giving Trump the win? Well, I feel comfortable in standing by my previous post that OH has drifted to the right. Maybe I overstated by say it has taken a sharp right turn but I see plenty of data to indicate it is more red than blue at this point in time.
A lot of the right wing media is reporting that Biden lied about a drunk driver killing his family. I did a little digging and it looks like it might be true. As far back as 2007, the driver’s daughter has been disputing that he was drunk and a judge who was the prosecutor on the case says there was no evidence of alcohol being involved. Not sure how true it is, but it sounds legit.
Even if true, no one would care. It’s horrific either way.
But see, even if not “drunk” the driver still killed Biden’s family.
So Pennsylvania is all over the place, but all the polls are biden ahead at least.
Florida is mostly Biden but a tie & a Trump.
Arizona really looks like it might go Biden.
Ohio is close, will probably go Trump, but might just flip to Biden. Amazingly Texas & Georgia are just as close.
North Carolina has Biden slight ahead.
Wisconsin & Michigan looks like they’ll go Biden.
There appears to be at least 4 Senate seats going Blue which would be enough to give the Dems both houses. There could be more.
| Race/Topic | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | Univ. of Wis/YouGov | Biden 50, Trump 46 | Biden +4 |
| Texas: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena* | Trump 46, Biden 43 | Trump +3 |
| Georgia: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena* | Trump 45, Biden 45 | Tie |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Univ. of Wis/YouGov | Biden 49, Trump 45 | Biden +4 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | Univ. of Wis/YouGov | Biden 51, Trump 45 | Biden +6 |
| Virginia: Trump vs. Biden | Christopher Newport Univ. | Biden 48, Trump 43 | Biden +5 |
| Iowa: Trump vs. Biden | NY Times/Siena* | Trump 42, Biden 45 | Biden +3 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | ABC News/Wash Post | Biden 47, Trump 51 | Trump +4 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 46 | Biden +3 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | Reuters/Ipsos | Biden 47, Trump 47 | Tie |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | St. Pete Polls | Biden 50, Trump 47 | Biden +3 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 45 | Biden +4 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Franklin & Marshall | Biden 48, Trump 42 | Biden +6 |
| Georgia: Trump vs. Biden | Monmouth* | Trump 48, Biden 46 | Trump +2 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 51, Trump 43 | Biden +8 |
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 51, Trump 42 | Biden +9 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | ABC News/Wash Post | Biden 48, Trump 49 | Trump +1 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | Reuters/Ipsos | Biden 47, Trump 46 | Biden +1 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 43 | Biden +6 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | Civitas/Harper ®* | Biden 44, Trump 45 | Trump +1 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 48, Trump 46 | Biden +2 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Economist/YouGov | Biden 49, Trump 42 | Biden +7 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Rasmussen Reports | Biden 48, Trump 47 | Biden +1 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Quinnipiac | Biden 52, Trump 42 | Biden +10 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D)* | Biden 51, Trump 42 | Biden +9 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 51, Trump 42, Jorgensen 4, Hawkins 1 | Biden +9 |
| Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield | NY Times/Siena* | Greenfield 42, Ernst 40 | Greenfield +2 |
| Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Peters 50, James 44 | Peters +6 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Kelly 51, McSally 43 | Kelly +8 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | ABC News/Wash Post | Kelly 49, McSally 48 | Kelly +1 |
| North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Cunningham 48, Tillis 43 | Cunningham +5 |
If anything, people are more willing to give drunk drivers a pass – “Oh, he was drunk? That explains it.”
So Biden has been sitting at 279 Electoral Votes for a long time which is just enough. His numbers in the polls are improving in some of the just blue states.
Trump has not made gains and in fact I now see 7 states as toss up states or Browns. All of them states he won in 2016. Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, N. Carolina, Georgia & Florida.
Best case scenario to send a Republican Party a message they moved too far right, Biden takes all 7 toss-ups. At this point, Biden would win 412 to 125 Electoral Votes and of course the popular vote by a good margin.
Don’t jinx him for crissakes!
Just kidding. That’s good news - thanks.
I’m really hoping Biden wins enough electoral votes on election night to take most* of the wind out of the election-theft CT Donny Two-scoops has been spewing for the past month, then we can watch the doesn’t really matter popular vote go more and more blue as it comes in until the mandate can no longer be denied by any rational person.
*You know he’ll just tweet something like, SOROS EVEN BETTER AT IT THAN I’D THOUGHT!!!1!
I think 290 is on the low end of what Biden could expect, based on the polls today. I currently have him with about 310 or so votes. If Trump support continues the trend of the last 7-10 days, we could have a blowout.
:: silently prays ::
Four weeks from Election Day, with a 16-point lead in the polls, Joe Biden decided it was time to give a Big Speech – and he chose the biggest historical arena possible.
Overlooking the Civil War … in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Biden invoked the reconciling leadership of Abraham Lincoln and committed to healing our house divided: [“We can end this era of division. …We can end the hate and the fear. We can be what we are at our best: The United States of America.”
With historic sweep and a call to remember the better angels of our nature, it was the best speech of Biden’s campaign. It was focused and authentic: the man has a marrow-deep belief in the power of personal decency as a road to bipartisan progress. He did not mention Donald Trump by name. He did not need to. The contrast was clear.
…if there is a free and fair election.
One last pre-election day update.
I guess for some odd reason I’ve been obsessing a bit about this election. 
I look at most scenarios and Biden will win.
Even if he loses Pennsylvania that is fixed by winning any of these following states: NC, GA, FL, OH or TX. I think he’s pretty likely to take NC, AZ & PA.
I expect Biden will be over 300 in the EC and Trump around 233.
I hope the numbers are more like 390 for Biden and under 150 for Trump. But that required both Texas & Florida going to Biden. I suspect Florida will somehow end up with Trump winning.
Florida, Texas and Ohio have all stayed red, dammit.
Bumped.
An interesting and very detailed post-election analysis of Biden’s and Trump’s typical voters, and how the election was different in 2016, 2018 and 2020:
Did you see anything in particular that was surprising or interesting in the article?
The big surprise for me is how much Trump gained with Hispanics over the four years.
Also looking broadly at the statistics, the trend seems to be in the direction of less separation by demographic in 2020 than in 2016, with both Biden and Trump making gains in with demographics that generally opposed them. The only significant exceptions to this rule was in education, (Trump won HighSchool or less voters by 15% vs 7% in 2016) and religion (Trump won evangelicals by 69% in 2020 vs 61% in 2106) and Urbanvs rural voters (in 2020 Trump was up by 32% vs 25% in 2020, among rural voters and was down 11% among suburban, when previously he was up by 2%.
In 2020, men were almost evenly divided between Trump and Biden, unlike in 2016 when Trump won men by 11 points.
I was curious to see what the male vote was like when it was Obama vs Romney in 2012. According to Pew’s analysis then Romney won men by 7 points. So Trump added 4 points in 2016 and squandered the double digit margin from 2016 in 2020. I wonder why. Because one of the reasons I have been convinced of about Trump’s appeal through both my own perceptions and anecdotal reporting is his cultivated machismo style over the years. It’s total bullshit because he is a coward and crybaby but he spent 30 years trying to come across as a no-nonsense tough guy on TV and then spent his presidency trying to pick fights in order to appear as a strongman. The right-wing media brigade certainly projected that image which was in contrast to how they always portrayed Obama as a weakling.