A prediction on the outcome of the Libby indictments.

[samclem]

Remember–you read it here first.

Libby will plead, in the next few weeks/months to some of the charges. He will get sentenced to either no prison time, or certainly a short, white collar stay.

We will never know for sure who the unindicted co-conspirators(my words) are. You will of course read about the speculation and the insider info in Time, Newsweek, and blogs-out-your-ass and the major media, but you will never get a major player to admit to anything in this matter.

Fitzgerald will have no need to pursue this further once Libby admits. That will be the end.

None of this makes me happy. Quite the contrary. But it’s the way life works.

If a mod thinks this belongs in IMHO, please move it. I put it here in case it became vitriolic.

[John_Mace]

Damn you, samclem! I was just about to add that prediction to the thread I started on Libby last night. From what I’ve seen today, Fitzgerald has a pretty solid case. Libby can save himself, and the administration, a LOT of trouble by copping a plea.

I’ve seen some speculation that Fitzgerald is hoping Libby will turn on Rove as part of his plea. I think that it highly doubtful. You heard **that **here first!

[samclem]

@John Mace

Damn you, samclem!
I’ve seen some speculation that Fitzgerald is hoping Libby will turn on Rove as part of his plea. I think that it highly doubtful. You heard **that **here first!

Not a chance. Scooter will do his time, and be rewarded handsomely by someone when he gets out.

[astro]

@samclem

Not a chance. Scooter will do his time, and be rewarded handsomely by someone when he gets out.

Like conspirators of yore I want to see Scooter hold his hand over a candle flame to show his raw willpower and determination not to talk.

[Frank]

@astro

Like conspirators of yore I want to see Scooter hold his hand over a candle flame to show his raw willpower and determination not to talk.

Or perhaps cut off the last bit of his little finger.

I agree with the OP, both in content and on thread placement.

Libby will make a deal and do light time. I don’t believe he’ll talk. That would jeopardize the well-paid job at a think tank he’ll get after he’s out of jail.

[samclem]

@astro

Like conspirators of yore I want to see Scooter hold his hand over a candle flame to show his raw willpower and determination not to talk.

You are, of course, referring to G. Gordon Libby, no doubt?

[elucidator]

@samclem

You are, of course, referring to G. Gordon Libby, no doubt?

Unspeakable. And from a moderator, no less. Another golden idol tarnished,

[RTFirefly]

@John Mace

Damn you, samclem! I was just about to add that prediction to the thread I started on Libby last night. From what I’ve seen today, Fitzgerald has a pretty solid case. Libby can save himself, and the administration, a LOT of trouble by copping a plea.

He can save himself a decade or so of prison time, but he would put the Administration in a world of hurt beyond where it already is.

Libby’s goose is cooked unless he can hand over Rove or Cheney. If he can give Fitzgerald one of them, he’s probably looking at a year or two in a Club Fed, and a six-figure fine. If not, he well might get a decade or more. He’s looking at charges that total 30 years if served consecutively and in full. And while the judge won’t make Scooter do 20+, he probably won’t go real short, either, if he’s not cooperated with the prosecutor.

Libby’s a 55 year old man who’s used to living comfortably. The idea that

@samclem

Scooter will do his time, and be rewarded handsomely by someone when he gets out

is absurd; you just can’t pay someone in Scooter’s position enough money later on to compensate for that many years in prison at this stage of his life.

I’ve seen some speculation that Fitzgerald is hoping Libby will turn on Rove as part of his plea. I think that it highly doubtful. You heard **that **here first!

I think it’s a better-than-even proposition. Might let Digby tell you of Fitgerald, Scott Fawell, and former Illinois Gov. George Ryan. Or go to Firedoglake and let Jane Hamsher tell you the tale of Fitzgerald, David Radler, and Conrad Black of Hollinger International fame. To put it bluntly, Fitz is really good at getting a white-collar criminal to flip on his boss, in situations not all that unlike this one.

[RTFirefly]

[aside]
Hey, there’s a Google ad that Scooter might want to take advantage of!

Criminal or drug charges?
Get the best solution. Quickly and within your budget.

I’m starting to really love these things.
[/aside]

[samclem]

@RTFirefly

Libby’s a 55 year old man who’s used to living comfortably. The idea that
is absurd; you just can’t pay someone in Scooter’s position enough money later on to compensate for that many years in prison at this stage of his life.
I think it’s a better-than-even proposition. Might let Digby tell you of Fitgerald, Scott Fawell, and former Illinois Gov. George Ryan. Or go to Firedoglake and let Jane Hamsher tell you the tale of Fitzgerald, David Radler, and Conrad Black of Hollinger International fame. To put it bluntly, Fitz is really good at getting a white-collar criminal to flip on his boss, in situations not all that unlike this one.

Fawell is evidently not a match to Scooter’s case. Fawell was charged with racketeering and tax evasion in addition to the crimes that LIbby was charged with, which were perjury and obstruction of justice. Quite a big difference, IMHO.

And, in the Radler/Black case, you’re talking about something that is on-going, happened just this Fall, and isn’t over yet. Also, the charges in that case are not the same as in the Plame case.

Again, I say, Scooter will do little if any time. Ask Bricker or Minty their opinion. It just won’t happen. And it ain’t about politics. It’s just the law.

[astro]

@samclem

You are, of course, referring to G. Gordon Libby, no doubt?

There’s no “Lib” in G. Gordon Liddy! You remember that punk! Remember it good!

[ElvisL1ves]

The Google ads at the moment: “Rove: Victim or Villain?”, “President Prediction - Should Bush Be Replaced?”, and “Careers in Intelligence”. Yep, gotta love 'em.

If Fitzgerald were through, I’d agree with samclem. Since he isn’t, I agree with RT - as it is, this is pressure on Scooter to finger Dick and Karl.

[samclem]

@ElvisL1ves

If Fitzgerald were through, I’d agree with samclem. Since he isn’t, I agree with RT - as it is, this is pressure on Scooter to finger Dick and Karl.

Oh, but he is. He might love to crank it up a notch, but he can’t without some testimony from Scooter. And that will never happen. Scooter won’t get more than 6 months. Ask a lawyer what the penalty is likely to be for a guy in his position, with his background, given the charges.

Are you suggesting that Scooter is less of a man than Judith Miller…

[ElvisL1ves]

Fitzgerald undoubtedly knows the penalties, too, and has a feel for what it will take to crack a guy who calles himself Scooter. If he still doesn’t think he’s through, he’s isn’t through.

Meanwhile, this story is going to continue to fester as long as Dick and Karl remain in the White House. They haven’t been cleared, can’t be cleared, and Bush hasn’t retracted his promise to fire anyone involved, either. If the prosecutorial pressure doesn’t do it, adding the public pressure (via a media now able to see that there are better ratings for pressing it than rolling over for Bush) might.

[John_Mace]

@ElvisL1ves

Meanwhile, this story is going to continue to fester as long as Dick and Karl remain in the White House. They haven’t been cleared, can’t be cleared, and Bush hasn’t retracted his promise to fire anyone involved, either. If the prosecutorial pressure doesn’t do it, adding the public pressure (via a media now able to see that there are better ratings for pressing it than rolling over for Bush) might.

Well, if their not indicted, then their not “involved”.

And you got the quote wrong. He said anyone involved would be “taken care of”. That could mean a pardon!

Link

''If there is a leak out of my administration, I want to know who it is. And if that person has violated the law, the person will be taken care of," Bush said at a campaign stop in Chicago in October 2003.

[ElvisL1ves]

He started weaseling on that when Turd Blossom’s involvement became public. MediaMatters:

White House press secretary Scott McClellan explicitly stated in a September 29, 2003, press conference that Bush would **fire anyone involved ** in outing an undercover CIA operative. McClellan did not hinge dismissal on criminal or intentional action:
…
McCLELLAN: The president has set high standards, the highest of standards for people in his administration. He’s made it very clear to people in his administration that he expects them to adhere to the highest standards of conduct. If anyone in this administration was involved in it, they would no longer be in this administration.

Bush himself stated on September 30, 2003, that he would “take appropriate action” against “anybody in my administration who leaked classified information.”

Apparently “that statement is no longer operative” (anyone who doesn’t recognize that one is encouraged to do a quick search themselves).

[John_F]

@RTFirefly

He can save himself a decade or so of prison time, but he would put the Administration in a world of hurt beyond where it already is.

Libby’s goose is cooked unless he can hand over Rove or Cheney. If he can give Fitzgerald one of them, he’s probably looking at a year or two in a Club Fed, and a six-figure fine. If not, he well might get a decade or more. He’s looking at charges that total 30 years if served consecutively and in full.

Man, that seems like an astonishing amount of time all things considered isn’t it?

How much time do you normally get if you walk up to some random guy on the street and shoot him to death (in a state with no death penalty)?

[E-Sabbath]

It’s what you call a meta-crime. A crime about crime. Disturbs (as in shakes) the legal system, so they want to make darn sure people don’t do it.

[elucidator]

@John Mace

…He said anyone involved would be “taken care of”. That could mean a pardon!

Yeah, but its not the first thing one thinks of when one hears the phrase: “He will be taken care of.”

[John_Mace]

@elucidator

Yeah, but its not the first thing one thinks of when one hears the phrase: “He will be taken care of.”

Not when Tony Soprano says it, but Bush? Who knows what that guy is thinking.

Seriously, I thought it sounded very suspicious when I first heard it. Still, he’ll just say no indictiment = no involvement. What does he care about something like that? He’s not up for re-election.