A Proposal for Peace in the Middle East

[Note: I originally posted this “proposal” in a thread on the temporary board. Due to shenanigans of the original poster, C K Dexter Haven closed the thread, but only after beginning to shred my proposal. Since the thread was closed, I had no chance to debate its merits. Since then, I have been assured that my post did not lead to the closing of the thread.]

Before I begin, let me say that I am not particularly educated on the issues, having learned more from the SDMB than anywhere else. I’m sure many will claim that I am simply naive - and perhaps rightly so (I have little evidence to refute such an argument). But in the interest of finding some solution to a complicated problem, I feel compelled to put it out there and argue its merits.

First I should point out a few key assumptions that lead me to this proposal:

  1. The violence and “issues” do not just affect Palestinians and Israelis. It affects the entire world. The violence and hatred spills over into other countries and cultures. We all have a vested interest in solving the problem (even an American of Irish descent, like myself).

  2. While roots of the conflict may go back centuries, the recent trouble started with the creation of the state of Israel following WWII. The UN, and the US in particular, had a significant hand in helping create the political landscape of the creation of Israel (and most of western Europe benefited from the Marshall plan at the same time).

So here is the proposal in a nutshell. Israel takes control of the occupied territories. Palestinians in the those territories are compensated handsomely for the land/improvements or simply because they exist there. Neighboring countries must allocate land equivalent to the occupied territories (existing landowners/occupiers are compensated). No Palestinian state exists.

And now for some more details. The occupied territories predominantly fall into three areas, the Golan Heights, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. Syria contributes land equal to the land of the Golan Heights, inside Syria’s existing borders (a possible compromise here is to annex the Golan Heights into Syria or Jordan). Jordan contributes land equal to the land of the West Bank. Egypt contributes land equivalent to the Gaza Strip on the Sinai pennisula. Preferably, each contributed land mass is local and equivalent in “livability”.

Owners (or occupiers/rights holders/whatever) in the “new” territories are compensated at fair market value plus expenses to relocate (if they so choose, read further). Palestinians in the occupied territories are compensated well beyond fair market value, perhaps 5x to 10x, plus relocation expenses. The “new” territories are “improved” with new infrastructure (roads, sewage systems, water treatment, housing, etc). Syria, Jordan, and Egypt are also compensated a negotiated amount for their land contributions.

Palestinians are guaranteed comparable space in the comparable “new” territories. But they can take their new found wealth and do with it whatever they choose to do (funny, if they have alot money, lots of other places may be willing to take them in, perhaps they may even stay in Israel).

Now, your asking about where all this money comes from, right? Well, some of it from your pocket. Some from Israel. Some from Saudi Arabia and other local Arab/Persian countries not directly participating in the land swaps. And from European Union countries. I haven’t run the math, but a few tens of billions is my expectation. I would be interested in any “back of the envelope” calculations someone would care to offer. I would expect Israel to contribute only the fair market value of the land in the occupied territories, plus a proportionate share (based on population) of the remainder. US, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and others would be expected to contribute the balance in an amount proportionate to population. Some countries, that truly have little or nothing to do with this, could be excluded completely (such as most sub-African nations, South and Central America, China, etc.)

And finally, Jerusalem. Jerusalem would become an international city, not governed by Israel. A new model of such a city would have to be developed, but the city-state would be governed under international supervision (UN perhaps), that guarantees historical preservation, access to all religious pilgrims, and extra tight security. Isrealis in Jerusalem would have the right to receive fair market compensation to relocate outside the new city-state, if they so choose. Palestinians would be eligible for the same compensation as those in the occupied territories (5x to 10x fair market value). Think of this as “imminent domain” on a very large scale.

Israel gets their country with some expectations of peace. Palestinians do not get their own country or homeland, but do get the opportunity to live in a muslim nation, and would be well compensated for their pain and suffering. The rest of the World would have to sacrifice a big chunk of money to buy peace.

Alright, so what is wrong with this plan? Expensive? Sure, but the status quo is also costing us billions. Logistical nightmare? Perhaps, but at least more plausible than a nuclear attack on Jerusalem (note: this was a reference to a “proposed solution” in the original OP on the temporary board).

The biggest problem I see is that the Israelis would be jealous of the compensation paid to the Palestinians under this plan. To that, I say tough, you got your country and your security, shut up.

Like I said - I’m no expert. I’ve never been to Israel or any of the surrounding countries, so I have no insight to any geographic issues. But I would love to understand what would make this unworkable.

To some extent this part of your post has been covered in this thread. I’m not trying to stifle any of your topic but rather give you something to build off of from previous discussion.

Hopefully I’ll have time later to respond mroe fully to the rest of your thread.

Whack-a-Mole,

Thanks for the link, I had not read that thread. My idea is similar to yours, but I would strongly suggest third-party control, rather than shared control. Obviously, the details would have to be negotiated.

But you did make a point in that thread that I share, and would like to share with the readers of this thread.

To paraphrase for my point, before you just criticize my proposal, please suggest how you would improve on it.

Thanks for the reference.

First of all, there are few Palestinians in the Golan. That territory was seized from Syria, and the Syrians want it back because it is extremely strategic. Standing on the edge of the Golan, one has a clear shot directly on Tiberias and to most of Northern Israel. That is why Israel fought very very hard in that region in 1967 and 1973 – Syria had been shelling Tiberias and the surrounding towns indiscriminately for years. Syria wants the Golan back, and this to date is their main request before entering peace talks with the Israelis.

But that in itself doesn’t negate your peace plan. Frankly, IMHO the core of the plan is rather naive – to people in the region, the land has become synonymous with religion. Joseph’s Tomb, the Tomb of the Patriarchs, Jerusalem, even the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, are holy to Islam and Judaism (and/or Christianity). Muslims want to be there, Jews want to be there, Christians want to be there. What about the Palestinians who don’t want to move from Ramallah? What if their house is an ancestral house, that was first built by their great-grandfather? If only 10% refuse to leave, your plan falls apart.

Other concerns:
-There are no appropriate authorities to preside over the money distribution, which seems to be a task which would dwarf any manpower capabilities of someone like the UN.
-It is a plan in which corruption is incredibly easy.
-Mass relocation of 2 million+ people into a new country built for them from scratch will take far more than $10 billion.
-The Palestinians fared and fare poorly in other Muslim countries, especially Jordan. In Jordan they form an underrepresented majority who is almost constantly at odds with the monarchy. See Black September for details.
-Robbing a Palestinian state of big time tourist attractions, like the Church of the Nativity, will hurt any future economy that they have.
-The Western world has gone to war to guarantee self-autonomy of oppressed or unrepresented people many times over the past 50 years. Why should we settle for an expensive plan that does not include self-autonomy for the Palestinians.

My first observation is that you’ve come up with a plan that would be unacceptable to all parties. Specifically, [list=1]
[li]Why would any Arab state be interested in donating their own already-occupied land to Palestinians just to get them off of Israel’s back? The Arab states have already been extremely reluctant to accept the Palestinian refugees as ordinary citizens. [/li][li]Why would the entire world, especially, say, Saudi Arabia, be interested in paying huge sums of money to solve Israel’s problem? [/li][li]Why do you think the Israelis would ever accept losing complete control of all of Jerusalem, especially since acceding partial control of half of Jerusalem has already been a deal breaker?[/li][/list=1]

Some other points:
As I see on preview Edwino has already pointed out, there aren’t any Palestinians in the Golan. There may, possibly, be a few Syrians but I doubt even that. Control of the the Golan is primarily a strategic issue. From the Golan Heights, you can throw a rock several miles into Israel proper. Think what you could do with a mortar or rocket launcher. In addition to the military issues there is, IIRC, a watershed issue as well. (I believe this is what broke up Barak’s negotiations with Syria.) Anyway, the Israelis don’t have any emotional attachment to the Golan, they just don’t want it to be used as a launching pad for attacks on Northern Israel.

I don’t doubt that the whole problem would be much easier to sort out if everyone would be businesslike about the whole thing. Unfortunately, that’s not the way the battle lines have been drawn in the Middle East. Suicide bombers aren’t blowing themselves up in Israeli pizzerias so they can force Israel to increase their buy-out offer by 10%. There are some very emotional issues in the Middle East that can’t be settled by a cash transfer.

BTW, under the original UN partition plan, Jerusalem was, indeed, supposed to become an “international” city. The Vatican still pushes for that solution. Objectively, I’d say that that’s a reasonable solution to the Jersulem problem. Unfortunately, neither of the parties agree.

To the OP:

teehee you think that you can buy peoples beliefs.

It’s just a question of how much, yeah?

Another problem may be that the Israeli economy relies heavily (according to what I’ve read - correct me if I’m wrong) on cheap Palestinian labor. A couple of possible outcomes, therefore:[ul][]Despite the compensation, many Palestinians would still be angry, and the problem of cross-border terrorism would still exist.[]Because of the compensation, Palestinians would no longer feel the need to work for the Israelis. The Israeli economy would take a large hit, with no ‘underclass’ to do menial jobs.[/ul]

I think it is a brilliant plan except for the fact that it treats the arabs as if they have all the same goals. The surronding countries would not accept the palestinians, much less give up land to them. Jordan in particular has a very bloody history of dealing with the PLO and would never accept anymore palestinians who could potentially cause trouble to the minority ruling tribe. Many thousands of palestinians have been living in refugee camps for 40+ years in the surronding states and there has never been any interest in them becoming citizens of those states.
I don’t think the economic issues for Israel would be a factor. If peace was really achieved it would be a boon to the economy. There is plenty of cheap labor in the world and the palestinians would soon be replaced.

I don’t mean to be negative, but I think the Palestinian cause is not that they want some land; they want specific land. The obvious response of a Palestinian to the plan, if offered, is “Why don’t the Israelis take this new land, and leave me where I am and want to remain?”

In fact, if I recall correctly, prior to the establishment of the State of Israel, the Zionist movement was offered Uganda as a national homeland for the Jewish people. (The Ugandans were not consulted in the matter.) They turned the offer down, obviously. I accept that land in Syria, Jordan and Egypt is not quite as foreign to Palestinians as Uganda would have been to (mostly) European Jews, but the principle is the same. It’s not just any land that Zionists then wanted and Palestinians now want; it’s their homeland.

Without responding to each issue point by point, let me summarize some of the arguments against, and address each one.

“Golan Heights is of little interest to Palestinians, but more interest to Syria and Israel”

As I mentioned, I am not familiar with the geography of the area, but based on the comments here, I would be willing to agree that the Golan Heights are of strategic defense importance to the security of Israel. Therefore, the Golan should remain with Israel. If it is truly of little interest to the Palestinians, I would see no need to ask Syria to contribute comparable land to the Palestinians.

“The Palestinians don’t want money, they want the land!”

Understood. Tough. The Palestinians gave up the right to the land when they chose to join the arab neighbors in attacking Israel in '48. They lost. To the victor go the spoils. This scenario was essentially repeated in '67. Get over it.

“But it is the Palestinian homeland, and they don’t want to give up their ‘ancestral’ home”.

Granted, but each side can’t get everything they want, that’s the nature of compromise. Further, if they choose to remain in Israel, with their new found wealth, so be it. It is their choice. They would not be forced to move, just offered the ability to do so. It is very much consistent with an imminent domain argument.

“Israel would never give up control of Jerusalem”

Considering they were never granted to the right to control it all, the claim is specious. If they were comfortable that it would be properly governed, and access would never be blocked, they wouldn’t trade it for peace and security? I find that hard to believe.

“Neither side would find it acceptable”

Granted. That’s the nature of compromise. Come up with a solution that each side would. The better question is whether it is “fair and equitable”, and therefore, sufficient to generate international support and pressure. If so, and enough pressure from outside can be applied, it may not matter whether either side finds the solution acceptable.

“The other Arab countries would never have the Palestinians”

I may not fully understand this issue. I would think that they would not want a bunch of destitute, agitated Palestinians. But if they were to receive international compensation, development assistance, and accept wealthy refugees, I’m not sure that this is really a deal breaker. But perhaps I’m just naive.

“It would take more than a few tens of billions”

This may be the deal breaker. If it is more on the order of $100 to $200 billion, that may be a non-starter. However, if that is a one time “tax” of $100 to $200 across 1 billion people, maybe its not.

And now quick answers to Truth Seeker’s direct questions:

  1. The Arab states wouldn’t donate their already owned land, they would sell it. So simply put, for the money.
  2. The world, including Saudi Arabia, would be willing to pay for one reason: Peace, which will likely be cheaper for everyone in the world, in the long run.
  3. Israel would agree to give up control of Jerusalem in exchange for a secure and peaceful resolution of greater than 50 years of violence. And, I suspect, they might find third-party control of Jerusalem better than giving up half of it.

Are any of these compelling, or just more naiveté?

And, gee, Jojo, thanks for your valuable contribution to the thread.

You asked for a peace plan everyone can live with – that is impossible. How about something that moderates on both sides of the Green Line can stand behind? Why not the Camp David/Taba plan? We know that Israel can live with it, and it is a pretty fair shake IMHO for the Palestinians. Here’s what you get:

  1. Internationalization of holy sites in Jerusalem.
  2. 97% withdrawal to 1967 borders with compensation for the other 3%.
  3. A compromise on the refugees.
  4. An independent Palestinian state in peaceful coexistence with Israel.
  5. Water rights, electricity rights, rights of passage between the West Bank and Gaza.

What is required for this? Palestinian suppression of militants, arrests of extremists, security cooperation with Israel, dropping all further demands for land and refugees. Seems pretty fair to me. No need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars, involve numerous unfriendly nations, involve the EU and the US and NATO and the UN and whatever other organizations needed to provide manpower.

If the Palestinians can’t accept that compromise, I can’t see them accepting anything else short of total destruction of Israel. Seeing today’s events (militant who swears allegiance to Arafat, who was released from jail after attempting a suicide bombing, blows himself up with a bomb designed to inflict maximum civilian casualties) make me suspect the latter, but I still hope for the former.

AZCowboy wrote:

<nitpick>

eminent domain.

Unless the domain is just about to happen, of course.

</nitpick>

Don’t take this wrong, AZ but you really ought to do a bit of basic research. Without some understanding of the history of the conflict, the geography of the area and the issues as seen by the players, it’s quite difficult to engage in a useful discussion.

This is simplistic crap. This has been discussed many times on this board, (though at least some of those discussions have disappeared because of the “troubles.”) In actual fact, some Palestianians, no doubt, fled what was to become Israel because of a dislike of the soon-to-be Israelis. Some were actively forced out by some factions of the same soon-to-be-Israelis. The majority were just ordinary people who were trying to protect their families and get out of the way of a war.

Worse, you are advocating ethnic cleansing. “Hey, we kicked Jordan’s butt in the war so now we get to forcibly deport the people we captured!”

**
Once again, the world is not going to pay many billions of dollars just to benefit Israel. If the Arab states really wanted to help the Palestinians, they would have already been offering them visas and cash payments to help them re-locate. The Saudis, for example, are not going to have a sudden epiphany and decide to help Israel buy peace. One key point that you seem to miss is that, even now, many countries, and most especially the Arab states, aren’t lying awake at night worrying about how they can ensure Israel’s continued existence and prosperity. Most of the states in the region have decided that Israel is here to stay and are willing to reach a modus vivendi. But that doesn’t translate into a willingness to spend a large fraction of their GDP to create “Greater Israel.”

More specifically, the odds of Israel allowing the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza to become Israeli citizens are only slightly less than that of Osama bin Laden becoming chief rabbi of Ireland. It is demographically impossible for Israel to even consider this because it would result in Israel becoming a majority Muslim state.

http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/07/17/News/News.30581.html

**

**
“To the victor go the spoils”, right? Who cares if they were never “granted” a right to control it? The facts on the ground are that they do control it. You might find it hard to believe, but there are a large number, perhaps a majority, of Jewish Israelis that are viscerally opposed to giving up any control of East Jerusalem, much less all of Jerusalem. You don’t seem to grasp that there are many, many people who are willing to die for things that you (or I) might find relatively unimportant.

**
No, you don’t fully understand the issue. The Arab states want to let in a few million wealthy Palestinians even less than they want to let in a bunch of poor ones. As much as 60% of the population of Jordan, for example, may be Palestinian. Nonetheless, Palestinians in Jordan are often resented by the rest of the population and sometimes discriminated against. You can imagine how a large influx of extremely weatlhy Palestinians would be recieved, especially since, under your plan, some other folks would be getting kicked off their land to accomodate them.