Correct me if I’m wrong, but this got me thinking: in the scenario of fully vaccinated people in a room with unvaccinated people, the general risk is on the latter group and not so much on the former, right?
If so, haven’t we been complaining all this time about how little people seem to want to inconvenience themselves to help others? Even though the shoe would be on the other foot in this case, haven’t people also been shrugging at vaccine deniers, saying that they deserve it if they do get it? Yeah, there are always people who can’t get vaccinated, temporarily or permanently, but honestly, nobody on any side seems to think about them a lot.
Point is, once a certain level of vaccination is reached, I don’t see how, in a nationwide psychological sense, continued restrictions won’t be resisted. It’s probably bad that it’s that way, but that’s the way it is to me.
I interpreted Biffster’s reservation as simply a note that all participants needed to be vaccinated AND that everyone needed to at least two weeks or more past their vaccinations.
I fail to see a reason to socially distance plus wear a mask after being vaccinated. If not now, when? If your entire room has been vaccinated it depends what your personal risk factors are but mine would be life as normal (2019 normal). But then my risky behaviors have been at a higher level than yours throughout. I slept with my wife her entire positive test stretch without fear. And tested negative near the end.
You missed the point. Even if you’ve been vaccinated you’re not home free. It still takes a certain amount of time before the vaccine takes effect. If you were vaccinated yesterday, for example, you can still receive and transmit the virus. Just being vaccinated isn’t enough.
On the other hand, if enough time has passed AND everyone’s been vaccinated, I would think it would be just like the good old days. Blow your aerosols all over that birthday cake.
Mine say it’s already happening, and will roll out in force by July. Perhaps the 4th holiday. Or maybe even Memorial Day. Kick off the summer mask-free.
ThelmaLou, I think that in those situations we have the best conditions for return to “normal” as we are going to get. Yes, transmission is still possible, but if the infections are limited to mild cases, then the risk starts to fall into the “accepable” category for most people. Even though we don’t know the long term repurcussions of even a mild case, we aren’t going to, as a society, continue the controls for very much longer. I suspect by summer most people will want to return to normal, and just deal with covid as it comes. And hopefully the vaccines will continue to work, or get updated enough to stay effective.
In the post where I posed the question, I had originally included a clause stating that part of my assumption was that (1) everyone was vaccinated and (2) at least 10-14 days past the vaccination date so that (3) everyone was presumed to be as COVID-proof as vaccines can make you (given that that is not and will never be 100%).
But sometimes my posts can run a little long, and I naively assumed that people reading the question would give me some credit for brains and fill in the blanks themselves. IOW I’m not proposing that this gathering should take place THE DAY AFTER everyone is vaccinated.
I did not miss any point. However, you missed several. I’m done with this portion of the conversation. Have a nice day.
If you’re in a private group where it’s understood that all participants are fully vaccinated/protected (ThelmaLou’s scenario), then I’d agree with you.
But out and about in public, where nobody knows who has or hasn’t been vaccinated, allowing the vaccinated to eschew safety protocols emboldens the unvaccinated to do the same. This would endanger all of the unvaccinated, including the ones who are continuing to follow safety protocols.
The problem is that we will never have everyone vaccinated, so we can’t use that as the finish line: at some point we will have to allow everyone to drop safety protocols in public, even though not everyone will be vaccinated. After all, this is what we do with other diseases like measles and pertussis. Maybe when we get to a point where the demand for vaccine has fallen off to a level comparable with those other diseases, and we acknowledge that we’ve vaccinated just about everyone that we can.
I think the real issue will be local case counts. When those drop to some number as a consequence of vaccination, we can change behaviors. But I have no idea what that number is
Exactement, as the French would say. We will never have everyone vaccinated, but we will hit a point of herd immunity, when most people will no longer be in danger. Then we’ll be able to live without masks in public.
Herd immunity is the most desirable outcome. But it’s possible we may not achieve a meaningful level of herd immunity before everyone who wants the vaccine gets it. If that happens, and if we are not willing to mandate the vaccine for everyone else, then herd immunity must be acknowledged as being unachievable and must not be the criteria for resuming normal daily life.
Well, we don’t even really need a new plan so much. Most places have a case count based regime for reopening in place. Individual jurisdictions can just drop restrictions as they enter “green/safe/level 1” or whatever the best level is called.
The problem is that a lot of places seem to have twitchy trigger fingers, and are talking about doing so before it would be reasonable. There is no reason, for example, to consider dropping a mask requirement before the vulnerable people under 65 are able to get their vaccines, yet that’s exactly what Arkansas (and apparently Texas) are considering. Even if, by then, we’re back to say, August rates (we’re at October rates today, at best), that was still prime mask-wearing season, and some of the most vulnerable would still be unprotected.
I’m definitely concerned about people just looking at numbers and thinking they’re “low enough” without considering who has actually been vaccinated. Especially when there’s so little reason to want to do it early when we know the end is in sight.
It seems obvious to me that any official rescinding a mask order will be seen by many to say that masks are unnecessary now, even if they were prudent enough to wear them before the mandate. I really doubt the obvious goal that there should be as small a spike as possible once masks are rescinded is being considered.
The encouragement of others is certainly an issue, but there’s also the fact that the vaccinated might still get a mild or symptom free case and can still pass the disease, so it is prudent for the vaccinated to mask until the number of vaccinated is fairly high. The “herd immunity” level we so cavalierly talk about but nobody knows what that number actually is.
And that says nothing about the possible need for updated vaccinations for new strains, whether to get the South African and Brazilian and Californian ones or future new strains or annually.
At the federal level it seems to be, but at the state and local level they seem to be ignoring the feds and ignoring the science and responding to their “have to get things normal” mode of thought.
I was responding directly to that post and its scenario, hence my statement.
My state is back to early June case numbers, long before our mask mandate. My region of it I haven’t researched but we blew up before the rest of the state did due to state institutions and the meat plants that made the 6 o’clock news at the time.
Well it looks like I was too optimistic. Governor Abbott is dropping mask requirement next Wednesday. He’s likely to cripple the ability for locals to have their own, even if they were inclined.
“Normal” will have to wait for all the bodies to clear.
