Exactly. And that Israel hasn’t done any of those things for the 60 years of its existence is why a lot of us are unhappy with it.
But let’s not forget that Israel’s demographic problem is not between Arabs and Jews alone. The ultra-orthodox are also increasing rapidly, to the unhappiness of secular Israelis, who claim they’re a drag on the state’s coffers and a nuisance to everyone. There’s also the controversial issue of Israeli outmigration, and the perennial question of what to do with the guest workers, who number in the hundreds of thousands.
All in all, the definition of Israel as a Jewish state seems to me to be under considerably pressure. I don’t see it as being sustainable long term. And if that is true, then worrying about whether the Occupied Territories are to be one or two Palestinian states seems to be beside the point.
Part of the problem is that the outside world has generally thrown their support behind incredibly corrupt politicians. Arafat was very corrupt and Fatah is corrupt. Hamas, for all of their other problems, seems to have their shit together. Similar to Hezbollah, Hamas is much more than just an anti-Israel organization. They provide many services that the government fails to.
We do not disagree here (and how often does that happen? :)) Israel may not treat its Arab minority worse than many/most other Western nations treat theirs, but that is a very low bar to judge by. Israel can and should do better. Again (and perhaps counter-intuitively) her future as a Jewishly identified nation depends on it.
As to the conflict between the Orthodox and secular Jews for the soul of the nation … the Orthodox have maintained disproportionate influence mainly because they are often needed to form a ruling coalition. But even more so the battle is one delayed while under threat from without. Still, even with the high Orthodox birthrate the demographics are in the secularists favor for many generations to come.
That’s the crux of the issue right there. I would contend that the Israeli political system is set up the way it is in order to keep the Arabs politically marginalized. But the cost of keeping the Arabs out of any governing coalition is that you have to bring some of the fringier religious parties in, and they end up having disproportionate influence. They don’t need to get anywhere near 50% of the population (and the same is true of the Arabs) before they find themselves in something of a kingmaker role. They either have to be brought into coalition, or they need to be kept out through some other awkward and semi-unworkable arrangement.
So you end up with an ultra-Orthodox wedge, and an Arab wedge, both of which are in a sense additive. As they grow larger, they threaten to tear the Israeli political system apart. The real danger to Israel is that the people who are currently leaving are overwhelming those of secular and technocratic disposition – the people the Israeli economy depends on, in other words. If that trend accelerates, Israel is in deep trouble. It’s kind of like the white flight that American cities went through in the '70s: the more people leave, the more those who are left behind have an incentive to leave.
I continue to think that Israel needs a grand rearrangement, of which the Territories are only a part. But I don’t see that long-term thinking among Israelis and their supporters. I see this mentality of, “Let’s just get through the next six months, and then we’ll see.” And all the while, Israel’s position continues to slowly erode.
Whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic about Israel’s future depends on your viewpoint. From a recent Thomas Friedman op-ed piece in the N.Y. Times (“Israel Discovers Oil”):
*"Which gets to the point of this column: If you want to know why Israel’s stock market and car sales are at record highs — while Israel’s government is paralyzed by scandals and war with Hamas and doesn’t even have a finance minister — it’s because of this ecosystem of young innovators and venture capitalists. Last year, VCs poured about $1.4 billion into Israeli start-ups, which puts Israel in a league with India and China…
Israel is Exhibit A of an economic phenomenon I see a lot these days. Of course, competition between countries and between companies still matters. But when the world becomes this flat — with so many distributed tools of innovation and connectivity empowering individuals from anywhere to compete, connect and collaborate — the most important competition is between you and your own imagination, because energetic, innovative and connected individuals can now act on their imaginations farther, faster, deeper and cheaper than ever before.
Those countries and companies that empower their individuals to imagine and act quickly on their imagination are going to thrive. So while there are reasons to be pessimistic about Israel these days, there is one huge reason for optimism: this country has a culture that nurtures and rewards individual imagination — one with no respect for limits or hierarchies, or fear of failure. It’s a perfect fit with this era of globalization…Iran’s ignorant president, who keeps babbling about how Israel is going to disappear, ought to pay a visit to Ben Gurion and see these rooms buzzing with student innovators, with projects called “Integration Points for IP Multimedia Subsystems” and “Algorithms for Obstacle Detection and Avoidance.” These are oil wells that don’t run dry."*
Er… unless the oil wells don’t have children (to mangle a metaphor). The issue for Israel is that the very basis for its existence is a demographic proposition: that it’s a state of, by, and for Jews. If that proposition can’t be sustained, either because Jews become a minority, or because the Jews themselves split into irreconcileable factions, then the current conception of Israel becomes obsolete. It’s all very well for Friedman to talk about the spirit of these young technocrats, but if capital is mobile, then so are they. And if they feel the climate of Israel becoming too unfavorable – either too Arab, or too overtly religious – then they’ll bail, taking their talent and capital with them.
Sal of course I disagree with you about the intent of the Israeli Parlimentary system. As to long-term … you may be interested inthis 1999 bit.
Long-term there certainly are issues. How much of a role does religion play in Israeli law? How to simultaneously be a secular nation devoted to equal rights for all and yet also be of Jewish character in a long term? How accepting of secularist principles can the religiously observant (Jewish or Muslim) be? (BTW, if Israel can’t master these problems after this many years, what chance does Iraq have of doing it in an Isalmic venue?)
Human nature is always such that long-term questions such as these will be put off while under more immediate threats. Truth be told, I think these are thornier conflicts to deal with than the threats without and look forward to the day when the threats from without are minor enough that Israel can face these questions head on instead of delaying their resolutions.
If I were a backer of Israel, this is the thing that would worry me. Israel’s inability to put an end to the conflicts over the Territories means that it’s going to be under an external threat for the foreseeable future – which means that these internal conflicts get swept under the rug, while demographic changes grind inexorably onward.
Things may look okay for Israel now – venture capital flowing in at the rate cited by Jackmanii – but ten years from now? 50? 100? Israel does not feel to me like a state built for the long haul.
Sal Ammoniac While demographics mean something for policy shifts, I think they are way overestimated in most cases. It’s the sexy hotbutton issue for now, but like Global Warming for the past 20 years I think the noise far outweighs the signal in terms of real useful information about demographics. Hari Seldon it is not.
There’s a religious law against fighting? Since when?