Hmm. The talk about the dependence of the economy brings up a question in my mind: if, as gonzomax believes (and many here believe is at least a possibility), the economy is still bad in '12, is it at all possible that people will be “used” to it being bad by then? Could that mitigate any impact that it would have on political point of view? Because while it’s certainly possible that the economy could get worse at a steady pace that entire time, how likely is it?
Y’know, I hear people saying that all the time. But is there any truth to that statement? For myself, I’ve never heard of anyone calling fair criticism of Obama racially motivated.
I suspect he’ll win reelection, as most incumbent presidents do, unless 1) there’s no improvement in the economy, or 2) the Republicans put up a particularly skillful and appealing nominee, or 3) there’s a major scandal that can be laid at his feet, or 4) there’s a major terrorist attack which it’s later shown could have been prevented.
Despite some minor bumps along the way (esp. in filling Cabinet slots), he seems off to a good start. He’s less than a month into his first term, though, and four years is an eternity in politics.