I brought this up in a thread before, but now that we have a President, I’d like to ask it again (with some new stuff).
There’s a lot of enthusiasm about Obama. And with it a lot of hope and expectation. Judging from his victory speech last night, he knows it all too well. There are a LOT of problems to solve, and a lot of blame to be had if he doesn’t succeed (or at least make visible headway - difficult when it may take years for things to get better to begin with). His popularity might make it worse.
Are his supporters expecting too much of him? Will they turn against him in '12 if he doesn’t walk on water? After all, it’s undeniable he benefited a lot from a public really tired of Bush - and in '12, he’ll not only not have that, but HE’LL be the incumbent, a position both advantageous and perilous.
If this election has shown us anything, it’s that he can overcome some pretty steep odds. But will he?
It’s way too soon to predict anything about anyone’s chances in the 2012 election.
As far as the loyalty of Obama supporters, though - I think there’s a hardcore base that’s going to stick with him through thick and thin, because he’s seen as their guy, part of a movement, someone who they helped get elected. Many people will approve or disapprove of him based on policies, and I sure can’t predict numbers, but the people who have a real emotional stake in his presidency and trust his judgment are going to stay with him. I don’t think they’ll turn against him unless he turns out to be a completely different person. Others will get discouraged and disappointed early, of course, but I see that as a much smaller portion.
Are they expecting too much? Some people think the president can make anything happen, so yeah, we can safely say some people expect too much. But the big issue is that we don’t have a clear picture on how Obama will adjust his plans to deal with the financial crisis, and how much he will have to adjust his proposals to get them through Congress. So we’ll certainly see how he handles that risk of disappointment early on.
I hope I’m not the only person not wanting to think about re-election before he even takes office. No president ever gets to do much of what they say they want to do. If he’s moderate, keeps the extreme wings on either side marginalized, the economy starts to grow his chances for a 2nd term should he want one are good. What foreign policy issues will develop in the next 4 years is something to wonder about.
There is nothing in Obama’s campaign history that would suggest he would somehow change drastically during his presidency. If anything, he will listen and be honest even when he doesn’t agree with what you are saying - this a fundamental problem for our current admin.
If it looks like he’s doing something, he’s likely to get some benefit of the doubt for a while. People forget that Reagan’s first two years were probably worse, economically, than the Carter years (and I think he lost some ground in the 82 midterms) but by 83-84 the economy had started to turn around.
Relevant article here: Obama Aides Tamp Down Expectations. You can probably expect a more of this kind of thing - Obama said Tuesday that some problems maybe couldn’t be solved in one term, and he’ll be speaking again tomorrow morning.
Hopefully the financial crisis won’t become the excuse for not dealing with healthcare and other issues. If anything the fact that we were able to put together a 700-billion-and-climbing bailout package while waging a completely unnecessary war suggests that money can be found for social programs if the will is there. Hell, the Great Depression didn’t stop FDR’s New Deal, it launched it.
It’s four years until the next election. I say we give him some time to see what he actually does – like maybe at least until he’s actually inaugerated!
Doesn’t keep a lot of folks from predicting that he’ll be a one-term President for various reasons (usually some combination of the following: there are too many problems, expectations are too high, he’ll be blamed for not waving a magic wand and making everything better when we GAVE HIM four years, Congress will blame him to save their own skins, etc).
Well clearly he can’t create a utopia in four years. But as long as he makes some concrete progress with regards to the economy and the war, and doesn’t make any major blunders, he’s a cinch for a second term. It will help a lot that the Democrats are stronger in Congress.
The key I think, it to start off with small easy victories. As Congress sees that his direction is working, they’ll trust him more and give him more leeway for larger efforts. It would be a mistake for him to try and bite off more than he can chew right away (like Clinton did with gays in the military) and set the stage for Congressional resistance.
How do you know he isn’t? He might be taking names and if you don’t support him, you’re in for it. I think I might be thinking of Santa Claus, though. Or a Southern Baptist preacher. It’s time for my morning medication but my Darling Marcie is still asleep. Forget I said anything. I know I will.
*The fresh-faced, forty-something leader, with his attractive young family, drank in the applause of his adoring audience, which carried on dancing into the early hours.
This had been a spectacular victory; he’d won big even in areas of the country which had never voted for his party before.
A washed-up, discredited government had been consigned to oblivion. His simple, compelling message of ‘change’ had helped him assemble an historic, all-conquering coalition - white, black, young, old, liberal, conservative.
It was a new dawn. His was a young country, whose time had come. Politics would never be the same again. Things can only get better.
But enough of Tony Blair. What about Barack Obama? *
It’s impossible to predict the 2012 election, absolutely impossible.
Nobody in 1988 would have guessed the next President would be Bill Clinton. Nobody in the first two years of Clinton’s administration could have said with any confidence he’d be re-elected. Nobody in 1996 thought G.W. Bush was a sure thing or even a frontrunner, and in 2004 if you’d said with confidence Barack Hussein Obama was going to be President in 2008, you’d have been thought nuts.
You can’t even guess what challenges Obama will face a YEAR from now.
