There are all kinds of rumors going around that Zarqawi, the supposed mastermind behind much of the insurgency in Iraq, may have been wounded in the recent US offensive. Or, perhaps he’s dead. Or, maybe he’s fine and this is a propaganda ploy (i.e. tell everyone that Zarqawi is hurt, get folks all worked up, then announce he’s fit again and back in the fight). I seriously doubt that any but a handful of folks out there know the truth as to Zarqawi’s current condition, so there is no point in debating it (though feel free to give your view point on whether or not he’s dead, wounded, or its all just a ploy).
What I’d like to debate is, what effect do you think it would have if in fact Zarqawi were seriously wounded and eventually died? Or if he’s dead already? Do you think it would have a large impact on the insurgency? On terror in general in the ME? Would it spark his followers to new heights of killing, or calm things down? Or have basically no effect at all? Also for debate…just how important IS Zarqawi in the greater scheme of things? How important is he to the insurgency in Iraq? To the broader terrorist movement in the region (assuming you subscribe to the belief that there IS a broader terrorist movement in any cohesive sense)?
Do you think it [Z.'s death] would have a large impact on the insurgency? On terror in general in the ME? … Or have basically no effect at all? Also for debate…just how important IS Zarqawi in the greater scheme of things? How important is he to the insurgency …
I would suggest that we might not know the answer to this until al-Zarqawi is captured or killed. The insurgency is almost certainly some mix of Saddam loyalists, Iraqi nationalists, foreign Jihadists, & militant Sunni and Shite Muslims.
al-Zarqawi’s capture or death will, if nothing else, help answer the question of the nature of the insurgency. He only directly controls and influences some significant portion of the foreign jihadists and, perhaps, the miltant Iraqi sunni’s. If his capture reduces the attacks – then these groups were significant. If they do not - he wasn’t all that important.
That is cheating I know. I have no good crystal ball as to which it is. So as not to be a TOTAL spoilsport I’ll WAG you this:
The U.S.'s actions – on the Syrian Border and in Western Iraq in the past few weeks certainly suggest that cutting off outside supplies and aid is now the primary offensive aim of the Coalition forces. This would suggest that the coalition & Intelligence Services think that foreigners are aiding the insurgency and are the number 1 military priority right now. Most likely, but not definitively, these shadowy foreigners are not aiding Iraqi Nationalists, Saddam loyalists or Shiites. This implies that the foreign Jihadists and theoretical Iraqi militant sunni allies are significant and losing thier effective and dynamic leader would be a significant blow.
Zarqawi’s group is only one part of the insurgency. I doubt it could be considered approaching most or all of it. They’ve carried out some of the most high-profile attacks. Is he the real leader of the group, or more of a strategist, or just a public face? I don’t know the answer to any of those, and I’m not sure if anybody will unless he dies and we see what follows.
He’s not involved in anything outside of Iraq as far as I know, so I doubt it would.