Apparently there’s some serious doubt as to whether the Republicans can come together to pass an ACA replacement bill. But here’s the thing.
Let’s assume the Republicans cannot pass any sort of ACA replacement. It’s still very possible that the exchanges will collapse of their own accord. They are teetering as it is, and that was with a supportive administration behind them. Now, they have the two main branches of government in unfriendly hands, and it’s unlikely that great measures will be undertaken to save the most well-known aspect of the ACA. So there’s a very good chance that they will collapse, and if that happens what’s left is Medicaid expansion, individual and employer mandates, and some health plan rules. Some of these may be dealt with on their own, without being part of a grand ACA replacement bill.
Point being that whether or not the Republicans can get their act together on an ACA replacement is not the end of the story, I would think.
If nothing is done and Trump sticks to the EO that basically gutted the mandate, then it is likely a death spiral begins. Private insurance would disappear in many markets. (Here in Washington, that is exactly what happened when our state mandate was dropped in the nineties)
Whether the current government can hang it on Obama is the question.
Enlightening therefore that the Republicans insist on repealing ACA first,
and only after that providing a Republican replacement,
which at this stage of development reportedly would cost the poor more, and the rich less.
Candidate Trump asked:
“What do you have to lose?”
We’re finding out already, and will have it reinforced for 4 years.
This is the first step in dismantling Trump and the Republicans. The Democrats need to oppose it just for show, but let the Republicans put out a flawed bill so that millions lose health insurance, including dirty white boys who work in coal mines, and then they can start dealing with the aftermath.
You mean the aftermath in which Trump makes up some completely idiotic lie blaming it on Obama, his followers believe it, and he’s re-elected in a landslide?
Because there is exactly ZERO evidence so far that this presidency/congress is having any consequences whatsoever among GOP voters for the monstrous acts they’ve been performing. They say it’s all the liberals; fault, their followers believe it’s all the liberals’ fault.
Agreed, and I think this is where the calculus changes.
Because right now, any ACA repeal bill is completely owned by the Republicans. Any losers from the replacement bill - and there are winners and losers in every law - are the fault of the Republicans. So the Democrats have zero incentive to play ball.
But suppose the Republican replacement bill fails and then the ACA (exchanges) fall into a death spiral, with more and more insurers pulling out etc. At that point it will be the failure of “Obamacare”, and the Republicans will have tried to rescue things and have been blocked by Democratic obstruction. At that point, I think both sides will have greater incentive to work out some sort of deal on a replacement package.
I don’t understand this concept, of blaming Democratic obstruction for anything at this point. The Democrats do not control any parts of the Government so how can they obstruct anything? If the Republicans can’t get themselves together enough to pass things, what the hell does that have to do with the Democrats? You have to actually control some power lever to be able to obstruct. What lever to the Democrats have, the filibuster? Unless they actually have to use that, how can the Republicans possibly sell this Democratic obstruction to the public? It makes no sense.
Speaker Boehner’s comment on it seems on point.
He said the Republicans wouldn’t entirely repeal ACA, because that would necessitate replacing it with a Republican plan; and Republicans won’t agree on healthcare.
They have the filibuster, as you note. In addition, if 80% of the Republicans support something but it gets sunk because 99% of the Democrats oppose it, then the Republicans get to say that “the Republicans” tried to pass a replacement but were blocked by “the Democrats”.
But even beyond that, it’s not about whether Democrats are obstructionist. If the ACA fails without being rescued, then it’s a failure of “Obamacare”. At that point the shoe is on the other foot. The Republicans are not going to be blamed for Obamacare failing - they’ve been railing that it’s a terrible idea for years. To the extent that the Republicans get any blame it’s in failing to rescue it, and if Democrats were clearly much more opposed to the “rescue” than Republicans were, then it’s hard to make that stick.
I think they’ve demonstrated their willingness and determination to significantly damage it. It’s the morally repugnant mentality that says, ‘if we can’t have it our way, nobody can’.
Republican voters are really gullible then. Trump made many promises to make healthcare great again. Republicans in congress have been trying to repeal for years. They’ve had 7 years at least to come up with a replacement plan. Yet its the Democrats fault that they will have failed. Sadly I know that they will believe this crap. Doesn’t make it any less crap.
To me, the most maddening thing about the whole thing is that ObamaCare IS the Republican plan. It is the plan that the Democrats rejected in the 1990’s. The GOP are railing against their own plan. Romney even did it in Massachusetts, and he lived to be the GOP nominee for President.
They’ve already used reconciliation to get it to the President’s desk, a week before Trump took office. If the ACA fails because it’s gutted (Trump’s EO), that’s on Trump, and the GOP. Trumpistas won’t believe anything that doesn’t come from the Great Cheeto’s facial orifice, but they’re still only 26% of the electorate, at most. Liberals need to improve their messaging on this, and be more willing to get dirty. If the Republicans can’t form any consensus on a plan, that’s on them. It took Republicans less than 3 years to rebrand the ACA as Obamacare. What makes healthcare so special that the Democrats can’t do the same thing?
Republicans counted on Obama not calling their bluff for years, with dozens of attempts to repeal the ACA. They have the ball and an open lane - if they can’t make a layup, that’s on them.
As noted above, the exchanges were failing before the EO.
The problem here is that it’s harder and harder to repeal things the longer they’ve been in existence. The ACA dramatically reshaped the healthcare landscape, and it’s difficult to put it back together again. For example, the individual plans that were banned by the ACA don’t exist, and there’s no way to know whether they’ll come back. Or if there are employers who have eliminated their healthcare businesses by sending people to exchange plans, it’s far from certain that they’ll all re-up if the exchanges fall apart.
You’re making that common mistake again: using logic and reason. Doesn’t work when analyzing Trump, the Republicans, or Republican-Trump supporters.
NOW you’re on the right track!
By George, I think he’s got it! You are correct: it’s all the Democrats’ fault and specifically it’s all the Kenyan-born Muslim President Obama’s fault. He has been determined to undermine the American Way of Life ever since he was elected and he’s still doing it by pulling the strings backstage to sabotage the One [del]Cheeto[/del] Man Who Can Make America Great Again.
See how that works?
And, yes, Trump’s people will absolutely believe every single word of this.
Yeah, easy to say that when they’re not the ones paying the price. A lot of Bush voters had a hard on for liberals – until the US economy started shedding 900,000 jobs per month and republicans didn’t even want to extend their unemployment benefits.