There was recently an article in the Washington Examiner about how ACA repeal may be on the agenda for 2018. If you haven’t read the article, here is a brief rundown:
[ul]
[li]The effort is apparently being spearheaded by Rick Santorum for some reason[/li][li]The newest iteration of the legislation is modeled after the Graham-Cassidy-Heller-Johnson repeal plan, presumably because that’s the only version still standing[/li][li]It apparently includes deliberate payoffs to Maine and Alaska in an attempt to buy off Sens. Murkowski and Collins[/li][li]The impetus for pursuing repeal now is purely political - supporters argue that any such pursuits will be impossible after this year’s midterms and that passing ACA repeal will motivate the GOP base to turn out and vote[/li][/ul]
Now, I have contended since the repeal effort collapsed last year that Republicans would be insane to try again in an election year. I mean, for all of the talk about how Donald Trump is immune to political gravity, such gravity does still apply to congressional Republicans; and now, after almost a decade, Democrats have made the GOP play defense on healthcare policy. Consequently, I think that doing this now could lead to not only a 60-70 seat GOP loss in the House, but also to a Democratic net gain (i.e., majority) of 3-5 seats in the Senate.
All that said, the failure of bipartisan ACA stabilization legislation earlier this year could conceivably prod Murkowski and Collins to jump aboard this effort, although in Collins’s case I am extremely dubious given that her state just voted to expand Medicaid via ballot initiative. The Senate GOP would need literally all of their members to come out in favor of this effort because of McCain’s absence for medical treatment.
So, what say the Dope? Do you think that the GOP would try ACA repeal again in an election year? Would doing so work to the Republicans’ advantage?
I can’t see how it’s a winning issue. They’ve probably impressed their mega-donors just enough by convincing them that they’re at least serious about taking health insurance away from the poor and middle class - they tried at least. They gave the donor class and pretty fat tax cut, too, so they at least passed the loyalty test.
Now comes the harder part: convincing a majority of voters in a democracy that eating a shit sandwich and drinking a gallon of gasoline is good for their health. They’ve done it before but it gets harder with each bite & sip. Eventually, people are gonna figure it all out, which is to say that actually taking health insurance from millions of people and limiting their access to care is going to eventually be met with some resistance, and possibly, voter action.
I think they might try it, especially if enough pressure from conservative media outlets comes to bear. Although as I understand it, they’d have to pass a budget resolution in order to use the reconciliation procedure that is necessary to avoid a filibuster in the Senate, and at least at this point neither chamber has done that and have no plans to. If we see that change, that’ll be the cue.
And no, it wouldn’t be to their advantage to do so. Trump does appear to be immune to many normal sorts of political scandals (perhaps because no one is surprised he’s an adulterous lying sleaze?). However, his approval has taken the biggest hit around the last attempt at ACA repeal when people were upset he wasn’t actually going to give them better healthcare for less money like he said. They’d be insane to revisit that right before an election. Which doesn’t mean they won’t.
Trump said he would shutdown the government in September if he doesn’t get funding for the Wall. I seriously doubt Republicans want to add repealing ACA on top of that before the election.
The healthcare issue is just a toxic issue for republicans. Their donors are irritated that government health access programs still exist and on the other hand, their repeated attempts to gut them have been politically unpopular. They’re in a no-win situation. If they weren’t staring down the barrel of a major electoral defeat in the mid-terms that would be one thing, but they’re already bracing themselves for the firing of Mueller and whatever aftermath that might ensue. The topic of healthcare would only add to their troubles. Meanwhile, the number of uninsured continues to rise thanks to their efforts to undermine the ACA marketplace.
Also of note is how a Sen. Cassidy spokesman is quoted in the article as saying that Graham-Cassidy is ‘dead.’ Certainly a ringing endorsement, but you never know.
There’s real hate for the ACA in the GOP donor class. It’s not that odd.
I figure it won’t get much actual traction though because Mitch McConnell can count. Senate Republicans can now only lose one vote and still pass a bill due to Doug Jones winning that seat in Alabama, and they’ve already de facto lost it since John McCain hasn’t been able to come to work due to his cancer treatments. This means that they would have to get both Murkowski and Collins on board, and neither one has been willing to sign on to any of the proposed repeal plans so far.
So Republicans would like to impeach Rosenstein, fund a wall that Trump promised to his suckers that Mexico was going to pay for, and repeal Obamacare? And it’s already May. Wow, those guys are ambitious!
A few million people maybe never had insurance, then finally got it under the Affordable Care act, then lost it because of Trump and Republican governors.
I’m going to argue that it might not be a bad campaign issue for the Pubs this fall. In my volunteer tax-preparing stint, I ran across a fair number of folks that don’t have health insurance and are pissed about the penalty (which I think is going away in 2019). Then there are other folks who have health insurance only because of the penalty. But there’s a whole lot more folks that are really pissed about the large jump in premiums in the past couple of years, which they, rightly or wrongly, blame on the ACA. If the Republicans promise that an ACA repeal will result in lower premiums, people will listen.
And apparently enough Republicans have believed him and Fox News that it’s causing the uninsured rate among Republicans to go up, even as the uninsured rate among Dems continues to decrease. Obviously just an inference, but it looks like there are Republicans who could take advantage of Obamacare, but aren’t because they think it’s already dead.
I feel bad for them, but they need to get out of the bubble.
Just heard a segment on a radio show with Santorum. His whole bill appears to be about block-grants. Again.
He basically said (and I’m paraphrasing here) “Before Obama mucked things up, people with low incomes bought insurance on the marketplace like everyone else. Then Obamacare came along and took these people out of the marketplace and onto Medicaid where working people subsidize them. We need to reverse that”.
Um, no you asswipe.
Low income working people simply went without any insurance at all, since very few minimum wage jobs offer any coverage. They could not purchase it on their own; it was simply unaffordable, especially if they had pre-existing conditions. Most of the people who gained coverage under the Medicaid expansion had never had any coverage before. None. They went to the ER if they got sick, racked up huge medical bills that they had no hope of ever paying and/or went bankrupt. Oh, and the “rest of us” ended up paying for their care anyway through higher medical costs.
So this is the big plan he has to “fix” the healthcare system. Just go back to the “good old days” where if you’re poor and can’t afford health insurance, too bad. No healthcare for you.
Do I have this right that this is what they’re going to attempt, again?
"Santorum argued…We are not going to get involved with Medicaid and trying to fix Medicaid. We did not promise in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 that we are going to fix Medicaid, we said that we are going to repeal and replace Obamacare.”
Then, two sentences later he says they "will focus on the Medicaid expansion, the tax credit system, the horrible waste money that is the Obamacare regulations that were put in place.”
So they’re not going to “get involved with” Medicaid, but instead, “focus on” Medicaid.
Well, THERE’S your problem! You’re actually expecting a Republican argument to make some sort of logical sense instead of being the usual argle-bargle.
