It’s going to get broken, but the circumstances where a team will take a chance on a 70 yarder don’t come that often. Time has to be running out, the 3 points have to tie the score or put the kicking team in the lead. The low trajectory needed for that distance increases the chances of the kick being blocked. But eventually with time running out someone will try and succeed eventually. A fair-catch free-kick may be the way this one happens.
I’ve always wanted to see 5 home runs in a major league baseball game. A number have gotten 4, so I figured that someone may get 5. Although, I don’t think anyone is going to throw good pitches to someone who already has 4 home runs in a game.
I’m always surprised that anyone is “allowed” more than two.
If someone were to offer a prize for it, it might.
Here’s one that maybe is feasible, but I can’t be sure, an interesting game of soccer or golf.
The thing is the black is the highest scoring, and the most convenient ball. The fact there are so many 147s mainly down to the position of the ball wather than its score. If they were to reverse the scores so yellow=7, green =6…black=2 I could still see a lot of breaks beginning with RBRBRBRBRB. Attempting RYRYRYRYRY would be too hard even though it is now worth more.
How about an American Football game where the ball is in play for more than 10% of the time?
Now that’s just crazy talk.
To be clear, the record in a nine-inning MLB game is 20 strikeouts by separate single pitchers, done three times (Roger Clemens 4/29/86 and 9/18/96, Kerry Wood 5/6/98). The record in an extra-inning MLB game is 21 (Tom Cheney); the record in an extra-inning minor-league game is 27 (Steve Dalkowski).
A 70 yarder has been attempted at least once that I know of, in 1983. End of a half or end of a game I believe, so no real field position risk, and probably had better odds than a hail mary.
Just doing a quick search, it appears that Sebastian Janikowski tried a 76-yarder:
Best post of the thread. Also, no Super Bowl has ever been hosted by a home team in their own stadium. Statistically, both of those events should have happened by now.
Has there been an analysis on something like this scenario: :02 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, Team A is trailing by 2 and has the ball on opponent’s 48. (Clock is currently stopped.) Team A has three options: attempt 70-yarder, attempt Hail Mary, or attempt a short pass/lateral/hand-off followed by a series of laterals. Which is the best option? (Obviously, there’s a dearth of data on 70-yard FG attempts, so this would definitely involve some assumptions.) My intuition would be that for some kickers today, the 70-yard attempt gives the best chance.
Mike Cameron had a very near miss on his 4-homer game. I think his fifth AB was a deep fly-out to center.
This is probably the least likely thing to happen that’s been mentioned in this thread. (Caveat: I know nothing about Cricket or Snooker.) The “Immaculate Inning” - three strikeouts on nine pitches - has apparently been done 78 times in MLB history. Think of how many innings there have been in that stretch, and it’s clear the probability of stringing 9 of these together consecutively is so small it’s reasonable to assume it’s something that will never happen. (Also, FWIW, the most Immaculate Innings in a career is Sandy Koufax, with 3.)
How about a sub-2 hour marathon?
A better thing to wish for would be a televised 155. All you need is one accidental mishit to set up the first free ball.
That’s why I think it will get broken eventually. It’s going to take a while for the conventional strategies to adjust to the increasing range of the kickers. It may get broken big, with two seconds left, a team already behind, and inside their own territory why not just go for it? The opportunity will arise someday. There may be a couple of misses before someone splits the posts though.
I basically agree, but I think the missing piece here is that the head coach has to believe that’s his best chance to win. Today, they seem to uniformly believe that their best chance is Hail Mary or lateral play. They believe that either because it’s true, or because it’s tradition. I’m curious if there’s any analysis as to which of those is the case. If it’s really true that lateral/HM gives the better chance of winning, even with the best kickers, I don’t foresee coaches giving their kickers a chance. Though if kickers continue to improve linearly (which can’t go on forever…), this may change in a decade or two.
If only Manning hadn’t hurt his neck a few years back, the Colts might have accomplished it.
Well, it’s considered unassailable just because nobody has come close. If you had hit streaks of 53, 52 and 50 games, 57 would not seem out of the question. But nobody is close to 56, not even people of the sort who could do it, like Tony Gwynn; it’s a weird outlier.
Five home runs in a game could certainly happen. Mike Cameron and Joe Adcock both came close. In Carlos Delgado’s 4-homer game he actually only got four at-bats (giving him the weird distinction of being the only player to start and finish a 9-inning game and homer in every plate appearance) so who knows?
We’ve had a few hockey goaltenders get credit for a goal, how about a goalie getting a hat trick? Maybe a couple flukes early on then at the end shooting the length of the ice into an empty net.
Doesn’t this same argument apply at the half, though? If you have a higher probability of success with a touchdown, which is also worth more points, why would you ever not go for the touchdown? The point advantage of a touchdown is negated if you’re at the end of the game and down by 0, 1, or 2, but it’s never an advantage for a field goal.
The only reason I can see to go for the field goal is if it’s more likely and the number of points don’t matter (i.e., if you’re at the end of the game). And the only way it would be more likely would be if you’ve got a tailwind, and your kicker’s great, and your quarterback and/or receivers suck.
So the conditions that need to be met to even try to break the field goal record are:
1: The trailing (or tied) team has to have last possession
2: The trailing team has to be down by exactly 0, 1, or 2 points
3: The trailing team has to be deeper in their own territory than the current record as of the last play
4: The trailing team has to have a great kicker
5: The trailing team has to have an inferior passing offense
6: The trailing team has to have a tailwind
All of that is necessary just to make the attempt. And then, once you’ve made the attempt, it’s got, what, a 1 in 4 chance of succeeding? Less? No, I don’t think we should expect much movement on this record any time soon.
I doubt we’ll see this simply because the NFL wants to add games to the season. I’m guessing we see an 18 game regular season before a team goes 19-0 culminating in the Super Bowl.