Rosie Ruiz could have done it in her prime.
Or a team just decides to let their field goal kicker try for the record; like when Belichick let Flutie convert the drop kick PAT in a meaningless game.
A team is less likely to try something just before halftime that could turn into points for the other team because the game isn’t on the line.
Or 3 points because the field goal will tie the game.
At least not have a superior passing offense. As mentioned above, stats would help answer this part of it.
At least no headwind. A good kicker won’t need extra help from the wind. Even a tail wind can be problem, you can’t count on it to be heading directly downfield.
A more likely circumstance is a team with a substantial lead or trailing heavily to give their kicker a chance to break the record.
No shutout in a Super Bowl either. The 24-3 loss by the Dolphins is the low mark.
16-0 NHL playoffs are possible, but will be very difficult.
Best in the 4 series era was the 88 Oilers at 16-2-0/1( A bizarre Playoff tie that isn’t really counted due to power outage)
The best chances for it passed by when the league salary cap was implemented spreading out talent, but it is still possible.
Nice. For those who, like me, vaguely recognized the name but couldn’t remember why, the short story is that Ruiz is the woman who was widely suspected of having had an assist from the New York and Boston subways to complete those marathons in the 1979/80.
New York Marathon Winner Tests Positive for Performance-Enhancing Horse
Tripolar, I think three points behind is an unlikely situation for the field goal, because you’d much rather get the 6 and win outright than just get the 3 and hope overtime goes in your favor. For that to be a sensible decision, you’d need to have double the chance of success on the field goal, versus the touchdown.
Though I suppose you’re right that it could also happen in an already-decided game, just for the heck of it.
That’s not really a “feat”. More of an “occurrence”.
Imagine having money on the game: with a second left, they go for a record-breaking field goal that – well, they still lose, but they beat the point spread.
You don’t need to double your chances, the chances just have to be better for the field goal than the pass. At closer range field goals have a high enough success rate that teams almost always go for the tie. The success rate of scoring from a pass or run at that distance is pretty low also, it’s only a question of what someone thinks that particular kicker can do on that particular day.
If you assume your chance of prevailing in overtime is 50/50, it is better to take a 1/2 chance of winning now in regulation (attempt the touchdown) than a 4/5 chance of tying (field goal.) The crossover point is when the field goal is > 2x as likely as the touchdown, as Chronos points out. I agree that coaches often get this wrong, but that is because they are applying a criticism-minimization strategy rather than a win probability-maximization strategy.
I think a 70 yard field goal is more likely to happen at the end of the half vs. at the end of the game. It’s a fairly low risk play at the end of the half just to put up some points.
And if Garo Ypremian hadn’t attempted a pass near the end of Super Bowl 7, the Dolphins would almost surely finished their perfect season by shutting out the Redskins.
I disagree. A longer field goal is, by necessity, kicked at a lower angle. The chance of it being blocked is quite high. In fact, I would expect that the expected value in points of attempting a field goal this long is likely negative. It only makes sense if it’s desperation to win the game (or you’ve already won the game by more than one score and this is some kind of gift to your kicker.)
4 inside the park home runs by one player.
ESPN would go crazy.
The record is 3 in 1 game in 1897 by a Tom McCreery for the Louisville Colonels.
The last to hit 2 in a game was Greg Gagne for Minnesota in 1986.
16 players in the AL and NL have had 4 home runs in 1 game.
Well it is a risk averse strategy which is what does prevail, and not logically all the time either. I just don’t think we have a good idea of the success rate for passes or kicks at these distances. In the past the kick was considered almost 0 probability so more passes were attempted. I don’t think the success rate was very high though. And you are evaluating the particular players on that given Sunday, the simple numbers for league play over time aren’t going to reflect all of that.
I pretty much agree with everything you wrote here. I think we have some data on success rates on the pass/run plays - there have to be a dozen of these per year, at least (with 256 games, excluding the post-season, if even 5% end with the trailing team within one score, but further away than around a 55 yard FG, you’ll see one of these plays.) And I can think of two succeeding, though there have probably been more. So it’s a pretty low success rate. But yeah, I don’t think we have any meaningful data on kicks of 65 yards or longer in a game situation. A coach would have to test his kicker in practice to even get a sense of success rate.
Yes. But I’m not arguing the point you and Chronos made about the chances, rather about what you know about the chances. Even with the great power arm quarterbacks no coach is going to say “Thank God we can throw a Hail Mary here instead of trying for a Field Goal”.
Now I have to admit I’m confused, since I don’t think I ever made any statements about the probability of successfully converting a very long field goal for you to disagree with. AFAIK, Chronos didn’t either.
I was talking about going for the tie vs. the win.