The rebuttal cited Wikipedia and then said that the 7% number was based on a study done in 1997 and never updated and is therefore useless or worthless.
What my article actually said was:
“n the 1990s, the FBI clocked the rate of specious allegations at 8 percent, according to Turvey. A 2016 meta-analysis of seven studies found an average false reporting rate of 5 percent. In the mid-2000s, the Making a Difference (MAD) project crunched stats on 2,059 rapes and sexual assaults specifically reported to U.S. law enforcement, the only study to do so. MAD found a false allegation rate of 7 percent.
How many is that? According to the FBI, law enforcement agencies received 116,645 reports of rapes or sexual assaults in 2014, the most recent year for which comprehensive law enforcement statistics are available. Applying MAD’s 7 percent false reporting rate, that’s a total of 8,165 false reports—or about 22 every day of the year.”
This one quote mentions 4 different studies going from the 1990s to 2014. I looked at the Wikipedia cite, and I didn’t feel that their cite really said what they seemed to think it said.
I concluded that the person really hadn’t read the article, said so, and moved on. The person then came back with something I didn’t real feel was worth my time.
How did I make that determination? Personal judgement call. In the very best discussions I’ve had we tend to be focused on ideas. People will get the gist of what i am saying with just a few words because they are reading sympathetically and I am doing the same and we are trying to understand what the other is saying.
In some of the worst discussions, the people think it is a game to misinterpret, or not understand, or misread.
In this particular circumstance I looked at what my article said, what their rebuttal link said, and thought “oh ok. We are playing that game. No thanks.” I moved on. I assumed other people who wanted to have a good progressive discussion would conclude what I had concluded.
So that’s why I did what I did. You have concluded that my actions were unsatisfactory or hypocritical or something and are chiding me for them
Ok. Let’s talk about it.
As you can see, there are 4 different studies cited, not one. The range is between 5-8%. The extrapolation of the math to lead to 22 based on a 7% rate is pretty straightforward. The first study is indeed from 1997 but the last is from 2014, so the interpretation of the Wikipedia argument (which was fast and loose, IMO, but whatever) that this was not a good number because it’s just one study that needs updating, does not in fact hold water.
There. I’ve now backtracked and wasted time Explaining myself and addressing something that anybody worth talking too should be able to see for themselves without my help.
I did that for you because you seemed to think it was bad that I didn’t. So please show me how this is interesting and noteworthy and how you are going to use it to exchange ideas in an interesting way or move the conversation along.
If I stop responding and go on to something else, you will now know why.
I will go a step further and anticipate a potential rebuttal. Something like “Scylla you are still a fucking hypocrite. You can’t go ignoring stuff directed at you even if you think it’s unworthy, while chiding Andy for not asking your questions”
My answer would be that your right. I just choose where to invest my time and make a judgement. Andy is typically forthcoming and I thought my question interesting and worthy. I was asking him what his picture ideas for change were, and what he hoped to accomplish and how he would do it.
I thought that arguing about percentages that I had cited correctly from somebody who either wasn’t bothering to read carefully, was being deliberately obstinate, or disingenuous wasn’t very interesting.
I expect people are making the same choices with me when they decide whether to engage or not.
I hope that answers your question.
Now Dance Bear! Say something Interesting based on this! Give me food for thought, or I shall cast thee down into the forgotten ranks of Those Not Really Worth Bothering With. 