Karzai has accepted the decision of the election panel.
Obvious issues for debate:
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Will it be run honestly this time?
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If so, who will win?
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How will the result affect the U.S. presence, etc.?
My take on it, is that the administration actually used a clever bit of brinksmanship to convince Karsia to accept the run off. I suspect that was what all the talk of not giving extra troops without an “effective partner” was all about. Once the runoff happens, and if there is a least less fraud than last time, then you will see troop levels increase. By not immediately agreeing to the increase , the administration gave themselves a handy bargaining chip when it comes to dealing with Karsia.
Most reports I’ve read have said that Karzai is a pretty heavily favored to win, so I doubt he’ll bother with fraud this time around given how easily he was caught last time.
This is probably a situation where he has to take positive action to prevent his loyalists from committing fraud on his behalf.
Not a chance.
I doubt the results will substantially change.
It will have zero effect on our presence there. The only thing that will effect our presence in Afghanistan (or Iraq for that matter) are public opinion…US public opinion that is. We’ll be there (and in Iraq) exactly as long as the US public (and political body) tolerates us being there. When we decide it’s time to bolt, we’ll leave…and not a second before that. Just like in Vietnam…WE decided when it was time to tuck tail and roll out.
-XT
Well, I guess that’s true in some sort of ultimate, cosmic sense. We won’t leave until…we decide to leave. But its not like that decision exits in a vacuum, Ford and the American public didn’t just wake up one morning and decide that today is the day to lead Vietnam, they turned against it because of things that happened in Vietnam.
Similarly, having us support a leader and gov’t whose legitimacy is questionable is more likely to turn opinion against continued US presence there then if we have one who is able to win fair and open elections. Indeed, I suspect at least some of the recent push-back against US operations there are due to recent evidence of fraud, and will get worse if Karzai or his supporters rig another vote (which as I said, I don’t think will happen.)
Never said it existed in a vacuum, old boy. 
But if we had decided to gut it out another decade in Vietnam, then we’d have been in Vietnam a decade later. Had we decided to throw in the towel a decade earlier, we would have saved a lot of lives. The ultimate decision wasn’t the Vietnamese (or the Iraqi’s or Afghani’s), but entirely up to the tolerance of the American people. Hopefully we are sick and tired of foreign adventures at this point…
Quite possibly the case.
-XT
It is a thoroughly corrupt government. Who can be trusted to oversee a fair election? They will run a show so Obama can justify sending more troops. Then there will be more money to skim.